With this being a year without the Commonwealth Games or either Olympics to boost Seven’s ratings, I think the battle between Seven & Nine will be extremely close on a five-city basis and could even be a nail biter right down to the final ratings week in November. On a market-by-market basis though, I’d probably expect Seven to win in Adelaide, Perth & most of regional Australia, Nine to take out Sydney, Northern NSW and Melbourne while the Brisbane/South East Queensland market could go either way because in recent years, it’s been the TV ratings equivalent of a marginal electorate.
I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here (come on, please let us use that abbreviation here on Media Spy!) will struggle against the cricket & tennis. Although Ten are to be commended for trying something new during Summer, I really don’t think the show will be popular enough to take any sizeable audience away from Summer sports coverage in either total people or demographics.
Nine will probably have their best start to a ratings year since 2004 due to the Australian Open and Married At First Sight reaching new ratings highs, possibly even becoming the most watched regular program on Australian TV for 2019. Without the benefit of the tennis lead-in, the ratings for My Kitchen Rules will probably be well down on last year…at least while MAFS is on.
After Easter, The Voice will probably struggle against House Rules & MasterChef. I’d even go as far as saying that 2019 will most likely be the last we see of The Voice Australia…at least until/unless someone decides to revive it a couple of years later!
Lego Masters might rate OK, but Australian Ninja Warrior will probably be a ratings flop partly due to Seven burning off their currently unaired series of Australian Spartan earlier in the year.
Presuming that it’s expected to air during the August-October timeframe, I’d expect Australia’s Got Talent to be no match for The Block & Survivor/The Bachelor(ette). The success or failure of the new dramas for Seven & Nine will probably depend quite a lot on how they’re promoted & scheduled.
Have You Been Paying Attention? and Gogglebox Australia will continue to be reasonable performers for Ten during the year, but the latter could experience a ratings decline if producers don’t get make the right decisions when it comes to new cast members after the departures of Wayne & Tom + Angie & Yvie who were on Gogglebox for eight seasons over four years.
In sport, FTA coverage of AFL, NRL and cricket in Australia will likely continue to experience ratings declines (particularly in metro markets where Pay TV is popular, such as Sydney) due to the coverage also being available on dedicated Foxtel channels. The AFL/NRL Grand Final &
New South Wales v the rest of Australia State of Origin will continue to remain among the most watched events on Australian television all year, although the rugby league broadcasts will again likely experience a slight decline in the OzTam ratings due to the availability of 9Now streaming among other factors.
Last but certainly not least, News & Current Affairs. I’d probably expect Seven to continue dominating in Adelaide & Perth (possibly even winning the ratings every night, week and month of the year from January 1 to December 31) along with most of Regional Australia. Nine News will continue to see it’s biggest ratings success in Sydney, Northern NSW and Melbourne. Along with everything else on TV, the Brisbane/South East Queensland market will probably remain the TV ratings equivalent of a marginal electorate when it comes to 6pm news ratings.
The relaunched Today will likely continue to struggle against Sunrise and potentially even ABC News Breakfast, with serious questions being asked by NEC management about whether the network needs to move towards splitting Today into five individual programs (like what they’ve done with the 4pm bulletins in recent years) by the end of 2019. Of the mid-morning programs, The Morning Show on Seven will probably continue to dominate the timeslot for as long as Kylie Gillies & Larry Emdur are still the main co-hosts.
ABC News at 7pm + 7.30 will likely remain steady or decline slightly, however the Monday night lineup of public affairs programs (Australian Story, Four Corners, Media Watch, Q&A) should perform decently and get a higher audience share than Ten during several weeks of the year.
10 News First will ratings wise, continue to remain 10 News Fourth in all metro markets even after the addition of the immensely popular Chris Bath to the national weekend editions. The Project will probably do well in key demographics but rating no better than 3rd in total people at 7pm. As for Studio 10, I wouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility of that show receiving a major format change (more focused on Kerri-Anne Kennerley, etc.) in an attempt to improve the ratings.
…and that’s just about it. Of course, I’d certainly be interested to hear what others think!