2019 Ratings Predictions

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The 2019 ratings year starts Sunday week on 30 December.

Post your predictions, hopes, expectations, forecasts etc for the coming ratings battle.

2019 Ratings Calendar

Week No. Dates
1 - 6 30 Dec 09 Feb
7 - 15 10 Feb 13 Apr
16-17 14 Apr 27 Apr Easter
18 - 48 28 Apr 30 Nov
49 - 52 01 Dec 28 Dec

Bold weeks indicate “the traditional 40-week survey calendar (wks 7-48, excl Easter) and are provided as a courtesy to data users who negotiate on that basis. OzTAM publishes ratings data 365 days per year and declares no official ratings period.”

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Nine’s main channel to win the ratings survey. However, probably not overall.

Seven, without Aus Open/Olympics/Comm Games which includes all the promotion/lead-in will be down, also MKR will continue to drop. But weekends (largely thanks to AFL and BH&G will still dominate bulk of year), helping weekly share.

Ten to remain in struggle land.

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Nine will finally win the ratings year…thanks to Seven’s inability to innovate and promote properly.

  • MKR, HR will be down even more on Seven, The Voice, Ninja will drop on Nine, Celebrity to drop on 10.
  • Love shows such as The Proposal, Super Switch etc will flop hard, Zumbo and Instant Hotel will die painfully.
  • Australia’s Got Talent will be the biggest flop of 2019
  • MAFS/Block/Masterchef/Survivor/Bachelor record highest audience

I think super switch will be a success.

10 to have two seasons of Celebrity this year with it airing in November - scheduling prediction.

I agree with many of the predictions made here. MKR will decline further but Love Island and Married At First Sight will soar higher. The Block and Bachelor bubbles could burst finally as they age too.

Local drama will either continue to flatline or surprise us all and deliver. The Bevan Lee Between Two Worlds drama on Seven is a huge risk for them and how they market it/what they invest in doing so will be a vital factor in determining its success. Seachange should launch big for Nine, especially if it aired off the back of the Block.

Australia’s Got Talent could do okay and prop Seven up in the final quarter it so often struggles in. Host and judge will be important considerations as well as the calibre of contestants and how it is promoted.

I’m a Celebrity will struggle severely against cricket and tennis. I don’t expect viewers to warm to it. Changing Rooms won’t do well with the Ten audience, nor am I expecting much from Dancing with the Stars. Sunday Night Takeaway could be a surprise hit, along with the drama offerings. Masterchef may fade with age too.

Sitting on the fence?

:joy: Standard.

Sort of, would prefer to avoid attacks from certain bullies on here.

However if you read my post in its entirety, you will see I have said I expect Seachange to launch big. The others, I don’t expect to do well – except Ms Fisher’s Modern Murder Mysteries looks like it could be a surprise and deliver the goods out of MKR.

Bullies? Clearly just joking around. And I did read your whole post.

A post was merged into an existing topic: 2018 Ratings Predictions

With this being a year without the Commonwealth Games or either Olympics to boost Seven’s ratings, I think the battle between Seven & Nine will be extremely close on a five-city basis and could even be a nail biter right down to the final ratings week in November. On a market-by-market basis though, I’d probably expect Seven to win in Adelaide, Perth & most of regional Australia, Nine to take out Sydney, Northern NSW and Melbourne while the Brisbane/South East Queensland market could go either way because in recent years, it’s been the TV ratings equivalent of a marginal electorate.

Programming wise…

I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here (come on, please let us use that abbreviation here on Media Spy!) will struggle against the cricket & tennis. Although Ten are to be commended for trying something new during Summer, I really don’t think the show will be popular enough to take any sizeable audience away from Summer sports coverage in either total people or demographics.

Nine will probably have their best start to a ratings year since 2004 due to the Australian Open and Married At First Sight reaching new ratings highs, possibly even becoming the most watched regular program on Australian TV for 2019. Without the benefit of the tennis lead-in, the ratings for My Kitchen Rules will probably be well down on last year…at least while MAFS is on.

After Easter, The Voice will probably struggle against House Rules & MasterChef. I’d even go as far as saying that 2019 will most likely be the last we see of The Voice Australia…at least until/unless someone decides to revive it a couple of years later! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Lego Masters might rate OK, but Australian Ninja Warrior will probably be a ratings flop partly due to Seven burning off their currently unaired series of Australian Spartan earlier in the year.

Presuming that it’s expected to air during the August-October timeframe, I’d expect Australia’s Got Talent to be no match for The Block & Survivor/The Bachelor(ette). The success or failure of the new dramas for Seven & Nine will probably depend quite a lot on how they’re promoted & scheduled.

Have You Been Paying Attention? and Gogglebox Australia will continue to be reasonable performers for Ten during the year, but the latter could experience a ratings decline if producers don’t get make the right decisions when it comes to new cast members after the departures of Wayne & Tom + Angie & Yvie who were on Gogglebox for eight seasons over four years.

In sport, FTA coverage of AFL, NRL and cricket in Australia will likely continue to experience ratings declines (particularly in metro markets where Pay TV is popular, such as Sydney) due to the coverage also being available on dedicated Foxtel channels. The AFL/NRL Grand Final & New South Wales v the rest of Australia State of Origin will continue to remain among the most watched events on Australian television all year, although the rugby league broadcasts will again likely experience a slight decline in the OzTam ratings due to the availability of 9Now streaming among other factors.

Last but certainly not least, News & Current Affairs. I’d probably expect Seven to continue dominating in Adelaide & Perth (possibly even winning the ratings every night, week and month of the year from January 1 to December 31) along with most of Regional Australia. Nine News will continue to see it’s biggest ratings success in Sydney, Northern NSW and Melbourne. Along with everything else on TV, the Brisbane/South East Queensland market will probably remain the TV ratings equivalent of a marginal electorate when it comes to 6pm news ratings.

The relaunched Today will likely continue to struggle against Sunrise and potentially even ABC News Breakfast, with serious questions being asked by NEC management about whether the network needs to move towards splitting Today into five individual programs (like what they’ve done with the 4pm bulletins in recent years) by the end of 2019. Of the mid-morning programs, The Morning Show on Seven will probably continue to dominate the timeslot for as long as Kylie Gillies & Larry Emdur are still the main co-hosts.

ABC News at 7pm + 7.30 will likely remain steady or decline slightly, however the Monday night lineup of public affairs programs (Australian Story, Four Corners, Media Watch, Q&A) should perform decently and get a higher audience share than Ten during several weeks of the year.

10 News First will ratings wise, continue to remain 10 News Fourth in all metro markets even after the addition of the immensely popular Chris Bath to the national weekend editions. The Project will probably do well in key demographics but rating no better than 3rd in total people at 7pm. As for Studio 10, I wouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility of that show receiving a major format change (more focused on Kerri-Anne Kennerley, etc.) in an attempt to improve the ratings.

…and that’s just about it. Of course, I’d certainly be interested to hear what others think! :slight_smile:

Sully has clearly lost his mantle at making the longest comments :wink:

I think most would agree it’s 2019 or never for Nine to have a real stab with no Olympics/Comm Games in play, as well as Nine now having the lucrative Aus Open lead-in to Q1.

However, to be fair (overused phrase) the aforementioned events didn’t really “boost” Seven’s YTD shares (you can see in the excluding and including tables), but they may have helped in terms of promotion/lead-ins?

So it has to be said Nine still significantly went down this year, regardless of major events on a rival, perhaps attributed to Ninja’s collapse/Voice on final legs and Q4 failure. As well as poor weekend ratings.

Will be an interesting survey year.

2019 will be a scintillating year for sport.
AFL Grand Final will stay Number 1 program for 6 consecutive years of the year.
NRL Grand Final will do well and will win in demographics.
The State of Origin game will do extremely well, although the ratings will dip by an extremely slim margin due to the 9Now streams. State of Origin Game 2 will do even better in Perth.
Bledisloe Cup will drop a bit due to many people having Foxtel and a few having Tenplay. The First game in Perth will do OK, but when its played in Wellington (IIRC) for the 2nd game, it will dip further due to NZ dominance and due to timezones.
Melbourne Cup race will drop viewers slightly in 2019 after Seven ended broadcast in 2018. Racing.com will still televise the Melbourne Cup, which was still part of SWM.
The Ashes in England will rate higher on its secondary channel and on the primary channel if Nine decides to do so. The Cricket World Cup in England (with only Australian games) will do well on GEM and will push Nine’s shares higher.
Bathurst 1000 will rise by a fraction, despite some people having Foxtel for some coverage.
Rugby World Cup - Who will pick up the rights to televise?

Meanwhile in other programs…
I’m a Celebrity will struggle a bit without the Big bash on Ten.
Channel Nine will have a good start to a ratings year since 2004 with Australian Open, Married at First Sight (although will dip a bit). Married at First Sight will be Number 1 non-sports program for 2019. Meanwhile MKR will drop further in ratings - people are getting bored of the bitchiness of the contestants.
After easter, The Voice will crash even further down and will be demolished by Masterchef in ratings. This will be the last year of the Voice Australia. I’d say that Masterchef will be Number 1 in its 7:30pm timeslot (bar State of Origin!)
Have You Been Paying Attention and Gogglebox will do reasonably well in its 8:30PM timeslot but will see a minute decline at the end of the year. Ambulance will see ratings go up a bit.
With the relocation of production of Ninja Warrior from Sydney to Melbourne, the ratings will drop dramatically. People are getting tired of Rebecca Maddern and Ben Fordham’s commentary. Will it be the last year of Ninja Warrior for 2019?
Australian Survivor will rate slighly higher in 2019 with a strong cast. But will be hit hard with The Block that will continue to dominate in 3rd quarter of 2019, although will experience a decline in ratings.
Dancing with the Stars will start well but will see ratings dwindle every week due to people having some negative reactions to this revival show on a new channel, TEN. It will fail on TEN and will be bumped to 10Peach.
Pilot week, Hughesy we have a problem, Show Me the Movie will not do too bad, despite having a different cast.

Seven will be hit hard with a strong lineup on Nine at the start of 2019, but will just prevail in its ratings year in terms of primetime shares. (this is vice versa Back in 2005, with Nine being hit with Seven’s strong performance, though Nine finished strongly in ratings year.) Despite of 7’s dominance in Perth for years, Channel 9 will see improvement even further thanks to Origin at Optus Stadium and the cricket during mid-year!

2019 will be the year 7 loses the ratings in a close one

Sports
AFL Grand Final will be the overall number one program (again!)
NRL Grand Final will be Nine’s no.1 program
9Gem will rate well during winter with the Ashes and NRL in AFL states sometimes outrating 10.
Australian Open will kick start Channel 9’s year thanks to exclusive streaming on 9Now
State of Origin will rate well in Perth given Game 2 is at Optus Stadium
The Melbourne Cup returns to 10 with live and exclusive streaming on TenPlay but ratings will drop off thanks to Racing still showing the Carnival and other races
NFL to go back to 10 with 10 Peach showing matches, Super Bowl on 10/10HD

News and Current Affairs and Breakfast
ABC News will be #1 during the federal election with Australia Votes 2019 the most-watch television news event of the year on ABC and ABC News. QandA, 4 Corners, Media Watch and Australian Story dominates Monday nights during the campaign.
Nine News Perth will rate well in January thanks to the Australian Open and Skyworks but will drop off when ratings proper start but Nine only win in Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Seven News Perth will once again win the ratings despite the loss of Skyworks and tennis to rival station 9. It will be Peter Hitchener’s final year at GTV with his last bulletin on 29 November 2019. Tony Jones will take over as permanent weekday presenter for Nine News Melbourne.
10 News First will be 10 News Fourth but The Project will continue to rate well
Today Show will flop badly, easily beaten by Sunrise and even News Breakfast with rumours of the show being axed or format changed. 10 will try and launch a breakfast show “10 This Morning” in the 2nd half of the year as Today’s viewers switch to News Breakfast but plans are dumped before it even airs
The Morning Show will continue to dominate the 9-11.30am timeslot

General entertainment
10 - I’m a Celebrity will struggle against the Tennis and Big Bash. Dancing with the Stars will flop with the show bumped to 10 Peach. Pointless will be axed, replaced with a Deal or No Deal/Wheel of Fortune reboot after poor ratings. Bachleor/Bachelorette/ Masterchef/HYBA will all be solid ratings. Trial by Kyle will be the most complained about show of the year but Hughesy, We Have a Problem and Show Me the Movie will be well recieved. Australian Survior will be the biggest imrpver.

7 - The last season of MKR with the show suffering another decline in ratings, well done on last year, same can be said about House Rules. Australia’s Got Talent to flop, show axed after 4 weeks. New shows Super Switch and The Proposal will be panned by viewers.

9 - MAFS and The Block continue to deliver excellent ratings with the former being the most watch non-sports show for 2019. The same cnanot be said about The Voice with 2019 likely to be the last season. Ninja Warrior will drop dramatically with shift of production from Sydney to Melbourne

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I still think it’ll be either the 1st or 2nd State Of Origin match, unless the NRL Grand Final is a real blockbuster (ie, all Sydney or a “NSW v QLD” battle).

Just our of interest, how do you expect Nine News to become #1 in Adelaide?

When Hitch retires (whether at the end of 2019 or a little later), I still think either Brett McLeod or Alicia Loxley will most likely get the position with Tony Jones remaining on Sport. But that’s for another topic.

Let’s be realistic here: Although it wouldn’t be overly surprising if Today struggles in the ratings during 2019, the chances of it being axed entirely are probably about the same as 60 Minutes or A Current Affair being cancelled in the foreseeable future: Very slim to none.

Unless the revived Dancing With The Stars somehow manages to receive disastrous ratings at or below The Biggest Loser: Transformed-levels, it should remain on the main channel for the duration of the series but not be renewed for another one. Same deal with Australia’s Got Talent.

I agree that Pointless will probably be cancelled if the ratings continue to struggle. But personally I hope neither of those game shows are revived. There’s been at least a couple of failed attempts to “reinvent the Wheel” and as for DOND, I certainly can’t imagine 30 minutes of “guess which briefcase contains the most money” being a huge ratings puller at 6pm against the news!

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Nine could well win 2019 by a fraction thanks to State of origin, NRL, Married at First Sight, The Ashes, Cricket World Cup, The Block. Nine Perth will improve prime time shares by 4.5% thanks to Origin at Optus Stadium and will eventually double Masterchef ratings on that night. With the We Are the One slogan, I hope that Nine will win the ratings year.
Last time Nine won ratings year was back in 2006 thanks to AFL, Commonwealth Games, and the NRL, State of Origin. IIRC how many weeks did Nine win back in 2006?

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Unlikely to happen for a while.

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I can see this being repeated in a couple of weeks sadly, even with I’m A Celebrity :confused:

(This was from the first Sunday night at the Aus Open earlier this year. For the record, Seven’s main channel was 33% and Nine’s was over 20% with cricket. 7mate had the other feed of the Aus Open. 10 didn’t have BBL this night)

I think Nine will finally win a ratings year in 2019. Australian Open and Married at First Sight will give the network a flying start. The Block and Seachange will be a huge ratings combo, while Love Island, Lego Masters and Australian Ninja Warrior should do OK. Then there is State of Origin and The Ashes on 9Gem.
Ten will rely on its usual suspects (I’m a Celebrity, MasterChef, HYBPA, Australian Survivor, Gogglebox, The Bachelor/ette) to prop up its ratings, although I sense further declines for The Bachelor/ette. Changing Rooms and Dancing with the Stars won’t set the ratings on fire.
ABC will dominate news and current affairs in the first half of the year with NSW state election and Federal election.
Seven will suffer a big ratings decline next year. I reckon the real reason the network schedules two seasons of My Kitchen Rules for 2019 is that it is worried about the onslaught from Married at First Sight. If the main season flops, there is an Q4 version to back up. House Rules will continue to drop while Instant Hotel, Australia’s Got Talent and Zumbo’s Just Desserts will struggle. The first two weeks of the AFL finals could even suffer a rare loss to the Ashes (late start next year due to Cricket World Cup) especially if Australia can turn around its poor form quickly with the return of Steve Smith, Cameron Bancroft and David Warner.

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My first daily predictions for 2019 :stuck_out_tongue:

Tuesday January 1
Hopman Cup on Nine (USA v Switzerland, specifically Serena Williams v Roger Federer in mixed doubles) will generate good late night ratings, but the BBL Melbourne derby will dominate early evening.

BBL: Heat v Sixers session 1: 0.28m, session 2: 0.36m
BBL: Stars v Renegades session 1: 0.59m, session 2 0.65m

Hopman Cup night session 0.34m

Ambulance Australia rpt 0.35m
Movie: Pretty Woman rpt 0.29m

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