Ratings Predictions

radio
ratings
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#41

Talking about the buzz of 2day’s music playlist they are the least repetitive of the CHR’s. They repeat their popular hits on average every 5 hours.
KIIS are averaging 4 hours.
Nova 96.9 today are 3-3.5 hours which is a improvement for them. More changes again to their workday with Throwbacks at 9am, then fresh 10 update straight after. Throwbacks again at 12 noon and then fresh 10 update again at 3pm but with different songs at 3pm compared to the 9am fresh 10 update.
With these new changes to workdays and weekends IMO this may not be a good book for Nova 96.9 so management have got in early and made changes. I could be completely wrong though.


#42

Ratings Predictions for Tomorrow:
FM Stations
Sydney

  1. smoothfm 95.3 up 1-2%
  2. WSFM down 0-1%
  3. Nova up 1-2%
  4. MMM up 2-3%
  5. KIIS down 2-3%
  6. 2DAY up 1-2%
  7. JJJ down 1-2%
    Melbourne
  8. FOX steady on 11%
  9. MMM up 2-3%
  10. Gold down 0-1%
  11. smoothfm 91.5 down 1-2%
  12. Nova up 0-1%
  13. KIIS down 0-1%
  14. JJJ up 0-1%
    Adelaide
  15. Mix down 2-3%
  16. MMM up 0-1%
  17. Hit up 1-2%
  18. Nova up 0-1%
  19. JJJ up 0-1%
    Brisbane
  20. 97.3 up 0-1%
  21. Hit steady on 12%
  22. Nova down 1-2%
  23. MMM up 1-2%
  24. JJJ down 1-2%
    Perth
  25. Mix steady on 16%
  26. Hit up 1-2%
  27. Nova down 2-3%
  28. JJJ down 0-1%
  29. 96FM up 1-2%

#43

Some thoughts for Melbourne and some may even be right (I forgot to check with Sharina on TLS before her show ended):

SCA
Fox - up across the board. Seems to be more radios at work tuning into the Fox than before
Triple M - up across the board - both footy and Kennedy/Molloy being drivers

Govt
ABC 774 - (hopefully) down for the wannabe “lite” Brekky. Dayparts to hold.
Triple J - small drop.
RN/ABCFM/3PB - Small increase for RN Brekky, from ex ABC774 listeners who don’t like the ads on 3AW

Macquarie
3AW - still no 1. Basically stable.
MSR/TL1278 - too early for MSR to do anything meaningful

CrocMedia
SEN - small increase due to footy season starting, but probably underwhelming
CR1377 - please join the ratings

ARN
Kiis - drop with insufficient cut through
Gold - generally drops with the footy (SEN and Triple M offset)

NovaEnt
Smooth - steady as she goes
Nova100 - up in brekky and down in dayparts with the audience rejecting the lights out at 9am approach


#44

I know I am a day early but here is my ratings predictions for Radio Ratings Metro Survey 3 2018
Melbourne:

  1. 3AW steady
  2. Fox steady
  3. ABC up
  4. MMM up
  5. Gold down
  6. smoothfm down
  7. KIIS up
  8. JJJ up
  9. Nova down
  10. SEN steady
    Sydney
  11. 2GB steady
  12. smoothfm up
  13. ABC up
  14. KIIS down
  15. WSFM down
  16. MMM up
  17. 2Day up
  18. Nova down
  19. JJJ up
  20. 954 AM
    Brisbane
  21. 97.3 down
  22. Hit up
  23. Nova down
  24. MMM down
  25. 4KQ up
    Adelaide
  26. Mix steady
  27. ABC up
  28. Nova up
  29. Hit up
  30. MMM down
    Perth
  31. Mix steady
  32. Hit up
  33. Nova up
  34. JJJ up
  35. ABC down

#45

My predictions for Sydney:

1: 2GB 873
2: KIIS 1065
3: ABC Radio Sydney 702
4: Smooth 95.3

…and after that:

5: Nova 96.9
6: WSFM 101.7
7: Triple M 104.9
8: 2DayFM 104.1
9: Triple J 105.7
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: Sydney’s 2CH 1170
12: Talking Lifestyle/Macquarie Sports Radio 954 (Survey #4 is the first full survey for the new station)
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

Sydney breakfast predictions:

1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
4: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
5: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
6: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 1017

Although I think 2DayFM’s numbers will increase in other timeslots with the overall ratings figure being just enough to lift the station ahead of Triple J in the Sydney radio ratings, 2DayFM breakfast ratings may suffer slightly from Em Rusciano saying “I don’t think I’m suited to breakfast radio” and reports of in-studio tension in recent media reports. TBH, I actually wouldn’t be overly surprised if 2DayFM just decides to run automated music or a Fox FM simulcast (but with local news/traffic/weather breaks, of course) at breakfast by the end of this year.

Like Macquarie Sports Radio, it won’t be until Survey 4 until we really know what the paring of Trevor Sinclair & Indira Naidoo is doing for the ratings of 2CH breakfast. Although I don’t particularly like seeing (or more to the point, hearing) any program fail, I personally wouldn’t be overly surprised if 2CH decides to cut back to one presenter for the breakfast shift within 12 months because having two presenters is probably a bit “too FM” for Sydney’s only AM music station.

As always, I’d be rather interested to hear what others think!


#46

Don’t expect much tomorrow except 2Day maybe having another increase, Gold dropping a bit in Melbourne, 973 increasing in Brisbane, Mix maintaining in Adelaide and Mix maintaining in Perth


#47

Wow, talk about being way off the mark last time!

For Survey #4 in Sydney, I reckon 2GB will again be the #1 station on AM & overall. Whether you love or hate them (I tend to lean towards the latter category myself), Alan Jones & Ray Hadley are just unstoppable in their respective timeslots and probably will be #1 for as long as they’re on the air.

Of the FM stations, the #1 spot will probably go to either KIIS 106.5 or WSFM…I’m leaning slightly towards the latter with a possible ratings boost for Jonesy & Amanda. Either way, I’m expecting the ARN duopoly and Smooth 95.3 to be Sydney’s top three FM stations.

Triple J, Triple M & Nova will likely be around mid-pack as they usually are. Nova will be prevented from rating better due to an over-repetitive playlist while the Ms will be prevented from rating better due to a fairly niche and inconsistent format.

2DayFM will continue to gain listeners and if they can keep the internal infighting (if you can believe certain media reports that were out earlier this year) under control, the breakfast show might even have a chance of continuing in 2019.

Although the newly formatted 2CH Breakfast program started 1 week into Survey 4, it’s probably been on-air long enough to make a prediction about how it’s going so I will make one: Personally I won’t be overly surprised if Trevor Sinclair & Indira Naidoo gain a few disgruntled ex-John & Garry listeners from 954AM, although most will probably go to Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer on ABC Radio Sydney 702AM. Can’t imagine 2GB or commercial FM stations gaining ex-954AM breakfast listeners.

Speaking of Macquarie Sports Radio: After a 1.9% figure when the station was still Talking Lifestyle for a good chunk of the first half (March 11 to April 14) of Survey #3, I actually think they might get ratings below 1% this time. I’m kind of split on whether or not MSR will rate below Sky Sports Radio this survey, but won’t be overly surprised if that happens before the end of the year.


#48

My predictions are more hopes than anything.

For MRN to be down both BH and BC in Bris along with the rest of the MSR disaster in Sydney and Melb.

Keep devaluing the licences, innovative operators will eventually be able to afford the market value.

And when will the ABC get the message of their younger, dumber and disastrous changes to content and presenters in the two morning slots for local radio? Need more down results for that.

One prediction I know is a certainty, Craig will continue to indulge in laughable ten minute back patting as he attempts to turn ratings day into a sport review. Will be a well polished piece of doo doo by survey 8.


#49

Gold’s ratings will go down & their listeners will come to MacQuarie Sporrts Radio 1278 due to my Commments on Gold’s Facebook Page.


#50

I hear a lot more Sydney radios tuned to 2DayFM than I did at the beginning of the year. I don’t know if this will be reflected in the ratings though. The breakfast show and lack of promotion of the new music format are not helping the station. The music is the winner though.

I would be shocked if MSR improved its ratings. I have not listened to 954 for months and I would have represented close to a third of their audience…


#51

Or not. I don’t think your Facebook campaign is going to save MSR.


#52

Results for Survey #5 will be released on Tuesday, so what are we expecting the results to show?

From a Sydney perspective, here’s what I think might happen…

*2GB will again be #1 on AM & overall with Alan Jones & Ray Hadley.
*KIIS 1065 recovers to be Sydney’s #1 FM station, although both WSFM and Smooth 95.3 will still be up there as per usual.
*ABC Radio Sydney will probably recieve a slight increase, but a bigger one next time.
*Nova, Triple M and Triple J likely be around mid-pack as usual, slightly down on the Survey #4 ratings.
*2DayFM to increase slightly (perhaps gaining younger WSFM/Smooth listeners), including at breakfast.
*2CH might get a slight increase because the station is running music the FM stations have long abandoned, with the breakfast show continuing to pick up disgruntled ex-2UE listeners.
*Despite promotion for the station on 2GB, Macquarie Sports Radio will continue to get less listeners than Sky Sports Radio - I’m predicting around 0.5 or 0.6 for MSR.

Aside from that, it’s worth keeping in mind that the results will be made up of those from May 27 to June 30 and July 15 to August 18. It won’t be until Survey #6 before we see how much (if any) effect this week’s Liberal Leadership crisis + subsequent fallout has on the ratings of talkback stations.


#53

Good to see you getting predictions in early… May as well continue the trend.
Agree with all Sydney predictions.
For Melbourne-

  1. 3AW
  2. Fox
  3. ABC
  4. MMM
  5. smoothfm
  6. Gold
  7. Nova
  8. JJJ
  9. KIIS
  10. ABCFM
    Gold will fall thanks to a new breakfast host and 101.1 will continue to struggle with their new breakfast team still struggling to connect with an ageing Melbourne audience, Fox, smooth, Nova steady with ABC getting a boost same with JJJ and MMM should get a boost as AFL finals just round the corner.

#54

No way that Gold will fall that far. Triple M is dropping as it is, and I don’t see how they can recover


#55

Yup. I’d imagine Gold will stay steady. MMM steady as well, if not slight drop.

Smooth & Nova slight bump.

KIIS steady or slight bump

Fox steady or tiny drop.


#56

Why would they get a boost? I would’ve thought a small decline with more breakfast listeners switching to Radio National as the FM style breakfast program doesn’t resonate with ABC diehards. Whilst I could accept this would stabilise, I can’t really see the drivers for an audience increase.

My take

  1. 3AW

  2. Fox

  3. Smooth

  4. Gold

  5. 774 ABC

  6. Nova100

  7. 3MMM

  8. KIIS

  9. JJJ

  10. Radio National

  11. ABC FM

  12. SEN

  13. NewsRadio

  14. MSR1278

  15. CRR/SEN+ (if it appears in survey!)

I believe that with too many sports stations (including RSN927 outside the survey) means that SEN/MSR1278/SEN+ will all fall. Smooth improves with limited competition. Gold dips as the sampling of breakfast will have occurred in the prior survey.


#57

OK, so the 6th lot of metropolitan radio ratings surveys for 2018 will be released next Thursday (usually Tuesday, but of course Monday is a public holiday in some states).

Anyway, here’s what I’m predicting for Sydney…

*2GB 873 and ABC Radio 702 will benefit greatly due to coverage of the recent Liberal Leadership Crisis + subsequent fallout along with the NRL Finals. I’m going to say that 2GB might get 15% of the audience, with ABC Sydney at/near double digit figures.
*101.7 WSFM most likely retaining their spot as Sydney’s #1 FM station, but will fall back to earth from their recent two decade ratings highs largely due to Leadership Spill coverage on other stations.
*Smooth 95.3 will be steady or go up slightly from people wanting to avoid the noise on some other stations.
*KIIS 1065 won’t do any better than #3 among the FMs and #4th overall. As much as I’d personally like to see Jonesy & Amanda go back to back, realistically I am expecting Kyle & Jackie O to regain their longheld postition as the #1 breakfast show on Sydney FM radio.
*Nova and Triple M will likely be around mid-pack as usual. Triple M might get a slight boost for their NRL coverage heading into the finals.
*2DayFM to go down in all timeslots, including breakfast with Em Rusciano’s recent departure. 104.1 has the potential to get less listeners overall than 2CH and maybe even Classic FM 92.9!
*Macquarie Sports Radio to remain Sydney’s lowest rating radio commercial station, with numbers only just above ABC NewsRadio 630.


#58

I’ll be interested to see how Gold goes in Melbourne this survey. I think Smooth will continue to do well in Melbourne.

Macquarie Sports will not improve in any of their markets I don’t think. Hopefully they’ll pull the pin soon.


#59

My guesses for Melbourne:

  1. Gold holding with a small dip in brekky. Pommes for breakfast is a long term re-education project.
  2. 774 another drop. Queue articles in The Age
  3. Smooth continues to grow, because they are different from the other commercials
  4. SEN continue to decline, coz the demand for a 24 hour footy station is not the same as the demand for a sports station.
  5. MSR1278 will remain stagnant, because a sports station without AFL is pointless

The others - normal jostling and minor moves.


#60

Em left two weeks before the end of survey and I would think the surrounding media coverage might increase sampling for the week of her announcement and some of the week after, with a decline after that, evening out any dip - so I’d suggest 2DAY will possibly hold-ish. Maybe up or down .2-.3. The next couple surveys will be interesting for 2DAY breakfast.

As for WS, the leadership spill was three days out of a five week survey, so even though I’d suggest they might slip a touch, I wouldn’t think leadership spill coverage to be the major cause.