Ratings Predictions

radio
ratings
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#21

If I was to guess, possibly Jonesy & Amanda on WSFM. That station seems to have been going through a major generational change in recent years (which probably started around Early 2014 with the “Pure Gold” branding relaunch) which has brought a new content director + morning/afternoon presenters for WSFM in 2018.

Although Jonesy & Amanda’s breakfast show is usually one of the top five on Sydney radio, I do wonder how both presenters will feel about WSFM’s strategy for 2018 and/or if upper level ARN management think J&A represent “the old WSFM” (like Ron E Sparkes & Charlie Fox) rather than how they probably want the station to sound like moving forward.

But of course, I could (and personally hope to) be proven wrong on that!


#22

Just last August, Jonesy & Amanda had renewed their contracts for another 3 years. But of course, things can change beforehand, especially given recent aforementioned changes to WSFM.


#23

In Brisbane I predict Talking Lifestyle will continue to march inevitably towards death and they will eventually admit defeat and make a half arsed attempt at a relaunch - which will also fail.
4KQ will out rate 4MMM on at least a few surveys throughout the year, and possibly also beat sister station 973.
973 will lose ground because of the mish mash of networked personalities who don’t appeal to their audience - see KIIS thread.


#24

strong text In Melbourne SEN will gain traction due to Craig Huchison Advertising Garry Lyon & Tim Watson around MelbOurne grAnted it should been done last year add Gerard WhateleY’s signing to do Mornings much beet Ratings are coming fur SEN in 2018 big improvers


#25

In Sydney:

  • 2GB - Alan Jones will be off-air at some point during the year for health reasons. Ratings will only suffer a minor blip with Hadley taking over until some shocking revelation about his past forces him off air too. 2GB then declines rapidly, with ABC Sydney the benefactor.

  • KIIS - Kyle & Jackie O win a clean sweep of no.1 FM breakfasts across the year. KIIS continues to do well as Sydney’s better rating hit music station.

  • Smooth - Continues to collect survey victories with a not-broke-don’t-fix mantra.

  • WSFM - Struggles to keep up with Smooth due to 2Day eating into its daytime adult market share. ARN panic and at the end of the year pull the trigger on Jonesy and Amanda and bring in another international jock that no one has heard of outside this forum.

  • 2Day - A steady but modest rise in ratings during the day in response to the older playlist. The breakfast show will rate better than it has in the last 5 years but still nowhere near the glory days. It will remain in 2019 with SCA having nothing better to replace it with.

  • Triple M - Encouraged by the success of 2Day’s newfound love of the past, classic rock becomes more prominent but any gains are diluted by too much sport output.

  • Nova - Give up all pretences of originality and become Capital FM Sydney. Fitzy & Wippa announce they are leaving at the end of the year due to the torture of having to endure a tight playlist.

  • Talking Lifestyle - Get ready for a 2UE ‘relaunch’ in 2019. The output will still be crap.


#26

Some of those are a joke right?


#27

I wouldn’t be overly surprised if some of DigiFizz’s predictions come true at some point (especially those for 2GB, KIIS, Smooth and WSFM), although perhaps not all of them will happen this year.

I personally think 2DayFM will continue to hover around a 3.5-4% share at breakfast for most of this year.

IMO, a 2UE relaunch (ie, the return of the old callsign & format) will only happen if MRN decides to sell the station…and somehow I can’t see any major signs of that happening just yet.


#28

I agree Sydney City. Unless they bought 2ue for George and Paul, sign them for a contract for life. Then sell 2ue. But that conspiracy theory is a bit too far fetched.


#29

I reckon most of them sound spot on.


#30

I’ll be interested to see how WSFM goes throughout the year. I was looking at their playlist the other day and while I’m a huge fan of the 80s especially the rarer 80s they’re playing, I reckon they shouldn’t have abandoned the 70s quite so much. I also think the 90s tracks they’re playing tend towards the lame and overflogged. They could afford to get a bit more adventurous there.
Nothing wrong with putting some new hits in there either but keep playing some 70s as well.
IMO that’s where Smooth still has the edge - music from the 60s right up to now.


Random Radio
#31

strong text ,]listeners from ABC RADIO Melbourne will follow Gerard Whateley tO 1116 SEN this will boost 1116 SEN’s Ratinns in Melbourne and cause ABC Melbourne RatiNgs ti fall in a big way.


#32

Survey 1 this week isn’t it?


#33

I’m not sure that the moving of one person from ABC to SEN will translate to huge ratings losses for ABC. I think ABC might feel more pain though from losing Red Symons in the breakfast slot.


#34

strong text RED SYMONS AS A GUEST O 1116 SEN SOME THURSDAYS WITH GERARD WHATELEY hence he could be signed by SEN to be part of their beakfastr show is either a co-host or a fill in


#35

No, it’s released next Tuesday (13th March).


#36

Media Spy has a thread for radio ratings predictions! :slight_smile:

Anyway, here’s what I think the running order might be in the Sydney radio market for Survey #1:

1: 2GB 873
2: Smooth 95.3
3: ABC Radio Sydney
4: KIIS 1065

…and after that:

5: WSFM 1017
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple J 105.7
8: Triple M 104.9
9: 2DayFM 104.1
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: Radio National 576
12: 2CH 1170
13: Talking Lifestyle 954 - Low ratings for the final survey before being relaunched with a Sport format.
14: ABC NewsRadio (old brand was quietly brought back over Summer) 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

At breakfast:

1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
4: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
5: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
6: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7

IMO, the results of Survey #2 will probably be more interesting as far as the Sydney market is concerned.


#37

My guesses for Melbourne:

image

Key thoughts:

  • for ABC Mel and Gold dumping the existing hosts will result in a drop brekky that flows through to the rest of the day. 3AW wins from ABC Mel changes;
  • Wil Anderson replacing Mick Molloy will have a small impact on brekky, but may help 3MMM overall;
  • Kiis change in brekky will have limited impact in the first survey;
  • TLS1278 will continue at “test pattern” ratings
  • Fox, Nova100 and Smooth benefit from consistency

#38

Radio Ratings Survey #1 2018 2Moro
FM Predictions: + Going Up - Going Down
Sydney-
Nova +
smooth FM -
2DayFM +
Triple M +
KIIS -
WS FM -
JJJ -

Melbourne-
Nova -
smooth FM -
Fox -
Triple M +
KIIS +
Gold -
JJJ +

Brisbane-
Nova -
Hit +
97.3 -
Triple M +
JJJ +

Adelaide-
Mix 102.3 -
Nova +
Hit +
Triple M -
JJJ -

Perth-
Mix 94.5 -
Hit +
Nova -
96.1 +
JJJ -

Predictions Based on the Market and the Sound of the Radio Station


#39

With Survey 2 to be released tomorrow, Tuesday 24th April how will they finish???
2GB to be number 1# as always in Sydney
3AW in Melbourne
Mix 94.5 in Perth
Will it be Nova 106.9, 97.3 or Hit 105 in Brisbane??
Mix 102.3 in Adelaide

What are people’s thaughts?


#40

It probably goes without saying that 2GB will most likely always be the #1 station on Sydney AM and radio overall for as long as they have Alan Jones & Ray Hadley!

As far as the Sydney FM stations go, KIIS & WSFM will probably be the most popular. #1 & #2 FM spots could go either way, but IMO it seems likely that the ARN stations will do well in Sydney due to their breakfast shows and other factors like the heavy promotion at Homebush over Easter.

Smooth 95.3 & Nova 96.9 will probably do OK, but rate behind the ARN stations. 2DayFM will get a slight ratings increase overall (due to a positive buzz about the music format), but continue to struggle at breakfast.

Talking Lifestyle/Macquarie Sports Radio 954 will probably rate below 2CH and even ABC Classic FM 92.9.