Ratings Predictions

radio
ratings
Tags: #<Tag:0x00007f715b6c3c10> #<Tag:0x00007f715b6c3940>

#1

Use this thread to discuss your predictions for upcoming surveys


Metro Radio Ratings: Survey 1, 2016
#2

The results of the latest metro radio ratings surveys get released tomorrow, right? In any case, here’s my predictions for Sydney in Survey #2 2016 with some additional commentary:

1: 2GB 873 - If they’re not #1 while Alan Jones and Ray Hadley are still on, check your windows for flying pigs!
2: KIIS 1065
3: WSFM 1017 - I think the massive promotional profile that both ARN stations had at a certain major event held at Homebush in the second half of March would’ve gotten a few listeners to try out KIIS and WSFM during the later part of this survey period.
4: 702 ABC Sydney

…after that:

5: Smooth 95.3
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple M 104.9
8: Triple J 105.7
9: 104.1 2DayFM - If they don’t at least beat 2UE and Magic 2CH, I think it will be a major disappointment for SCA!
10: 2UE 954
11: Magic (or Tragic? :stuck_out_tongue: ) 2CH 1170 - Somehow, I’m expecting a ratings drop followed by the removing of “Magic” from the station name/branding pretty soon after either this survey or the next one.
12: ABC Classic FM 92.9
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

Of course, I could be completely wrong in the end but hey, I’m only guessing here. Of course, I’d certainly be interested to hear the predictions of others! :slightly_smiling:


#3

Ah here’s a punt on the Melbourne Top 10 (I couldn’t be bothered hanging around to 8 o’clock to write Top 8):

  1. 3AW - still the powerhouse, but the curtailed sports today may result in a drift to SEN
  2. 774 ABC - seems steady above the FMers
  3. Fox - the work radio seems to have drifted away from Gold
  4. Gold - sorry the last survey was just a nice once off
    5 Smooth - just continues to offer a difference with limited competition

6 3MMM
7 KIIS
8 2JJJ
9 Nova100
10 SEN


#4

Survey 2 released tomorrow.

Predictions:

3AW #1 overall (of course)
774 ABC #2 overall

Fox #1 FM (tight, but should be back)
Gold #2 FM (tight, but wouldn’t expect big drop)
Triple M #3 FM (should place better, won’t be on top)

Breakfast with Ross & John #1 Breakfast overall
Triple M Hot Breakfast #1 FM Breakfast

Nights should be interesing, any drops will be due to 7pm to 10pm (Ross Greenwood & Steve Price). Had a nice increase last survey :slight_smile:


#5

With the results of Survey #3 released on Tuesday, here’s what I’m predicting the ratings results might be like in Sydney.

1: 2GB 873 - Usually such a powerful force in Sydney media, even though I would really like to see them challenged in the ratings.
2: KIIS 1065
3: 702 ABC Sydney - I think the Federal Election campaign getting into full swing should help 702’s ratings.
4: WSFM 1017 - Down this time around, but I think they’ll do well in Survey #4.

…after that:

5: Smooth 95.3
6: Nova 96.9 - A station to watch in Survey #4 IMO. At the very least, I think the success or failure of the Fitzy & Wippa-presented 20 to 1 on Channel Nine very well may define the breakfast ratings for the rest of the year…
7: Triple M 104.9
8: Triple J 105.7
9: 104.1 2DayFM - Breakfast especially will drag the station down IMO. If they are still behind Triple J in the ratings after the next survey, I’d expect some alarm bells to go off at World Square on Goulburn Street…
10: 2UE 954 - A ratings decrease either this survey or the next one.
11: - Magic (or Tragic? :stuck_out_tongue: ) 2CH 1170 - I think MRN want this station to rate better (even if they eventually sell it off) than 2UE, but it won’t happen this time around IMO.
12: ABC Classic FM 92.9
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

Of course, I’ll probably be less than half right again! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:


#6

For the entertainment, here’s my predictions for Melbourne Top 5:

  1. 3AW - hard to knock off…
  2. 774 ABC - similar to SydneyCityTV’s comments, the federal election should help Aunty
  3. Gold104 - I could be wrong, but I think they’re on song (that is really terrible rhyming…)
  4. Smooth91.5 - continuing the climb up, with the Fox/Nova100/Kiis battle having a Stephen Bradbury effect for Smooth…
  5. Fox FM - slipping with the competition from Kiis…

And the outfield roughie… 3RN to beat the iPod at Tragic1278…


#7

Survey #4 will be released next week. As usual, here’s my predictions for the Sydney ratings!

1: 2GB 873 - I think it will be close, but the combination of the Election Campaign and two State Of Origin games in this period should help 2GB remain on top.
2: 702 ABC Sydney - With most of the Federal Election campaign covered in this survey, I think it’s quite possible that there’ll be a gap of only 1-2% at the most between 702 and 2GB!
3: KIIS 1065
4: Nova 96.9 - I think Fitzy & Wippa’s TV exposure just might be able to help them beat Jonesy & Amanda for the spot of #2 FM at breakfast in another survey and get their station in the spot of #2 FM.

…and after that:

5: WSFM 1017 - I think the station will recover from the fall of Survey #3, but not enough to become the #2 FM station in this survey.
6: Smooth 95.3
7: Triple M 104.9
8: Triple J 105.7
9: 104.1 2DayFM - I think the ratings will remain relatively steady (including at breakfast) this time around, with Survey #5 being a bit more interesting for 2DayFM.
10: 2UE 954
11: ABC Classic FM 92.9
12: Magic 2CH 1170 - A very distinct lack of promotion will hurt 2CH in the ratings IMO!
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

Again, I’ll probably be wrong but it doesn’t hurt to guess…right? Of course, I’d certainly be interested to hear the predictions of others as well! :smile:


#8

Ratings survey #5 is out tomorrow :slight_smile:

Predictions:

•3AW #1 overall in Melbourne.
•2GB #1 overall in Sydney

Enough said.


#9

My predictions for Sydney. Probably more likely to happen in Survey #6 than 5, but I’ll give it a crack anyway…

1: 2GB 873
2: 702 ABC Sydney
3: KIIS 1065
4: Nova 96.9

…and after that:

5: Smooth 95.3
6: WSFM 1017
7: Triple M 104.9 - If there’s any Olympics weeks included in this survey, then with this and TV ads I’d be willing to predict that Triple M will beat WSFM
8: 2DayFM 104.1 - TV ads running at the moment should help the station.
9: Triple J 105.7
10: 2UE 954 - I’d probably expect 2UE to fall in the ratings in a few surveys, post-format change.
11: ABC Classic FM 92.9
12: Magic 2CH 1170
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

And for something new/different, Sydney breakfast program rating predictions…

1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Robbie Buck, 702 ABC Sydney
4: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
5: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 1017
6: The Grill Team, Triple M 104.9

Of course I’ll probably wrong, but there’s no harm in having a guess…right?


#10

Radio ratings out tomorrow morning :slight_smile:

Usually there are increases at the back-end of the year (the last survey was terrible in Melbourne & Sydney)…

》3AW: #1 with 15%

•Breakfast with Ross & John: 20%

》Fox FM: #1 FM with 9.5%

•Hamish & Andy: 12%


#11

My predictions for Sydney…

1: 2GB 873 - Perhaps a slight drop as the NRL wraps up for another year, but as usual they’ll probably dominate
2: KIIS 1065
3: Smooth 95.3 - A ratings drop from the previous two surveys, but nothing too alarming
4: 702 ABC Sydney

…and after that:

5: Nova 96.9
6: WSFM 1017
7: Triple M 104.9
8: 2DayFM 104.1 - Should get a slight boost from the current/recent TV ad campaign.
9: Triple J 105.7
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: 2UE 954/Talking Lifestyle - The first survey which (partly) covers a time since after the format change
12: Magic 2CH 1170: Continuing to bleed listeners due to the current/recent ownership uncertainty
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

At breakfast:

1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O: KIIS 1065
3: Robbie Buck: 702 ABC Sydney
4: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
5: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel (yes, they include the newsreader as part of the team!), Smooth 95.3
6: Jonesy & Amanda: WSFM 101.7

Of course I’ll probably be wrong, but it’s worth a shot anyway!


#12

Whose wave is trending down or up? There’s a calculated guess to ratings predictions.


#13

I know I’m getting in a bit early with these predictions, but I’ll be out of Sydney (and probably offline) when the 1st radio ratings survey results of 2017 are released in mid-March so here are my predictions now! Of course I’ll probably only be half right as always, but…

1: 2GB 873 - The absence of Alan Jones and Steve Price will bring the numbers down a bit, but I don’t expect a drop out of 1st place.
2: ABC Radio Sydney 702
3: KIIS 1065
4: Smooth 95.3

…and after that:

5: Nova 96.9 - The branding relaunch and associated advertising should help the numbers a bit.
6: WSFM 1017
7: Triple J 105.7
8: Triple M 104.9
9: 2DayFM 104.1
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: Magic 2CH 1170
12: 2UE Talking Lifestyle 954 - A once ratings powerhouse continues it’s fall from grace.
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

At breakfast:

1: Chris Smith/Ray Hadley or whoever has been filling in for Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
4: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
5: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
6: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 1017

The 4th breakfast show in four years probably won’t do much to help 2DayFM’s ratings in the competitive timeslot.

Talkback ratings at night should be very interesting, with Chris Bath now on ABC Radio Sydney & Steve Price’s absence from 2GB to participate on a certain Ten reality show. I think some listener experimentation just might happen during nights in Survey #1!


#14

Survey #2 comes out next Thursday and as usual, here are my predictions for the Sydney radio ratings.

1: 2GB 873 - An increase on Survey #1 as Alan Jones and Steve Price return, along with the NRL getting into full swing for another year.
2: ABC Radio Sydney 702
3: WSFM 101.7 - It’ll probably be more evident in the next survey than this one, but I’d expect that heavy promotion at the Homebush Showgrounds to help the ARN stations again.
4: KIIS 1065

…and after that:

5: Smooth 95.3 - Both ARN stations will outrate Smooth this time around, but I don’t expect an overly alarming ratings drop.
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple M 104.9 - A slight bump up with the football getting into full swing.
8: Triple J 105.7
9: 2DayFM 104.1
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: 2CH 1170 - I’d expect the “Magic-less” 2CH to get a slight bump up in the next survey (which will be the 1st full one since the station’s 3rd rebrand in four years).
12: Radio National 576
13: Talking Lifestyle 954 - With listeners tuning out as 2UE is cremated.
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

At breakfast:

1: Alan Jones (along with Smith, Hadley or whoever was filling in prior to Jones’ return), 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
4: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
5: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7
6: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3

As usual I’ll probably be less than 50% right but it doesn’t hurt to guess, right? And of course, I’d be very interested to hear what others think might happen! :slight_smile:


#15

It’ll be interesting to see how Talking Lifestyle goes in all three eastern capitals. I can’t pretend I wish them well :slight_smile:

In Brisbane I predict 4KQ will have a bounce after an unusual drop last survey. Not much change in FM in Brisbane with all 4 remaining stable - and mediocre. Listeners won’t move while nobody is offering anything different.


#16

Yep Brisbane won’t move at all. 612 and 4KQ to maybe increase slightly with people who tried Talking Lifestyle and don’t like it.


#17

Is anyone else frustrated at the schedule of survey release this year?

Huge gaps in the first half of the year, seems to be far too long between release dates.


#18

With all the views on the new KIIS line-up, I thought now might be a good time to kick off the ratings predictions for 2018. Just to make it a little interesting, I suggest we come back at the end of the year and check who did the best by using a similar concept to footy ladder tipping - one point for every variance in rating position with the lowest aggregate score winning. Rating is based on the average of all 8 surveys with a different winner for each capital city market.

For Melbourne:
1 3AW - Can’t see Ross & John losing their touch.
2 Smooth - The axing of Red Symons and Jo & Lehmmo just give the listeners another reason to try and another station.
3 ABC Melbourne - Whilst Red Symons will cost morning ratings (I sincerely doubt the audience who liked Red will like the new duo), the rest of the day schedule will hold - coz in their audience who wants to listen to a radio station with ads.
4 Fox - Hughesy & Kate fit the Melbourne image with the rest a matter of just keep on doing on - if only they could get a decent logo
5 Gold104 - expect brekky to drop off with a flow through to the rest of day. Some audience members just aren’t the forgiving sort.
6 Nova100 - the nonlocal you know will continue to deliver a really good brekky shift and NE execs will wonder why listeners after brekky don’t want to listen to never more than two songs in a row back announced by someone who can’t pronounce Reservoir correctly.
7 3MMM - my expectations here are coloured by my take on Will Anderson that he is smug and a legend in his own lunchbox. He is no Mic Molloy, but I think he will appeal enough to the same demographic (does he barrack for the Tiges?) The Molloy / Kennedy show should pick up share.
8. Triple J - expect them to be there abouts as to the last few years.
9. KIIS - read the KIIS thread! This will not work - Are ARN management trying to give TLS1278 a run for their money???
10. SEN - great coup with Gerard Whately. Bad call putting him on in the mornings. Put him on drive - when people can listen (as distinct from radio in the background during work hours). Years ago Francis Leach and the Ox were taking market share from 3MMM on drive as they were new and fresh on SEN. You could’ve done the same with Gerard Whately. Expect SEN drive to replace networked drive from 3AW on the ACE AM network
11. RadioNational - slight increase from disgruntled 774 listeners…not expecting much else
12. ABC Classic FM - expect no movement here
13. Something1278 - half way through the year, the station will be relaunched and to quote Yazz
and the Plastic Population “the only way is up”…and above Newsradio
14. Newsradio - hard to get excited listening to a defunded audio version of ABC News24

Over to youse…


#19

From a Sydney perspective, here’s what I think 2018 might have in store for the radio ratings…

*2GB will again be the #1 station on AM and overall in every survey, as per the previous 13 years or so.
*The battle for the #1 spot amongst the FM stations/#2 overall will be between WSFM and Smooth 95.3 for most surveys.
*Kyle & Jackie O at breakfast will ensure that KIIS 1065 remains in the Top 5, fluctuating between the #3 and #5 spots for most surveys.
*ABC Radio Sydney will remain steady, but behind 2GB, Smooth and the ARN stations most of the time.
*Nova, Triple J, Triple M will continue to stay around the middle of the pack.
*2DayFM will experience improved ratings with the addition of Hughesy & Kate, but the breakfast timeslot will continue to remain a problem.
*Talking Lifestyle 954 to fall behind 2CH and Classic FM.
*Radio National, ABC News 630AM and Sky Sports Radio will be at the bottom as always.

Not strictly ratings-related, but I also wouldn’t be overly surprised if one of Sydney’s longer running breakfast shows decides to wrap it up at the end of the year.


#20

Which show would you be referring to?