Ratings Predictions

radio
ratings
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#61

#62

So…with the results of 2018’s penultimate metropolitan radio survey(s) out tomorrow, how do you think the stations might go?

Here’s what I’m predicting might happen in Sydney:

*2GB again being the #1 station on AM and overall, with Alan Jones & Ray Hadley dominating their timeslots - although that goes without saying, doesn’t it?
*Kyle & Jackie O as the #1 FM breakfast show, with Jonesy & Amanda dropping back a little.
*WSFM back into the high single digits, with KIIS or Smooth being the market’s #1 FM station this time.
*ABC Radio Sydney around 4th or 5th - remaining mostly steady.
*Nova, Triple M and Triple J around their usual mid-pack figures.
*2DayFM falling slightly, including at breakfast.
*Macquarie Sports Radio continuing to remain the laughing stock of the market.

And as far as 2CH is concerned, I reckon Bob Rogers will go out on a ratings high (perhaps scoring around 6% between 9am and midday) in his final full ratings survey on the station, while the breakfast show with Indira Naidoo & Trevor Sinclair will probably continue to struggle unfortunately.

As per usual, I’d be rather interested to hear what others think! :slight_smile:


#63

I have a feeling Smooth might regain no 1 FM in Sydney and WS might drop back a bit.

I’ll be particularly interested in how the Christian O’Connell experiment is going in Melbourne.

In Perth I predict 96fm will continue to struggle.

In Brisbane I have a feeling 97.3 might continue to slide just a little more.

Oh and Macquarie Sports continue to epic fail in all markets.


#64

Gee I did OK with my predictions if I do say so myself :slight_smile:


#65

Correct. Now for the next jackpot numbers.


#66

Results of the final survey for the year will be released tomorrow, so here are my predictions for Sydney…

*2GB will once again, be the #1 station on AM and overall as the case (most likely) will always be for as long as Alan Jones & Ray Hadley are still on the air.
*Smooth 95.3 will again be Sydney’s #1 FM station/#2 overall, followed by KIIS 1065 who’ll probably again take out the #1 spot at breakfast on FM with Kyle & Jackie O.
*ABC Radio Sydney at #4, as WSFM slips further in the ratings from their two decade+ highs around the middle of this year.
*Nova, Triple M and Triple J will probably receive their usual mid-pack figures, while Matthew Johns won’t receive any ratings highs for his final survey as part of The Grill Team.
*2DayFM to again receive slightly improved ratings with momentum continuing to build over Summer. It’ll still be some time before they’re really competitive though.
*2CH to continue underperforming due to a stunning lack of external promotion. Mornings expected to drop with the departure of Bob Rogers, however the full effects won’t be felt until Survey #1 2019.
*Macquarie Sports Radio to go up in the ratings from 0.6% to 0.8% (or something like that)! May still be Sydney’s lowest rating radio station behind Sky Sports though, because the survey period will have only covered a few days of test cricket.

…and that’s just about it for 2018. Of course I’ll be interested to hear what others think, seeing the results some time after they’re released tomorrow and of course, (hopefully) doing it all again next year! :slight_smile:


#67

#68

Thoughts on Survey 1 coming out tomorrow everyone??


#69

I foresee no improvement for MSR.


#70

In Melbourne: Gold up, 774 stable, KIIS stable or slightly down. 3AW #1 for the billionth time. Not sure what impact the SEN expansion will have on MSR (surely a negligible difference if that?).


#71

After a long hot Summer, here’s my predictions for Sydney’s first radio survey of 2019 with some additional commentary:

1: 2GB 873 - with Alan Jones & Ray Hadley continuing to dominate their timeslots, of course.
2: ABC Radio Sydney 702 - NSW State Election lead-up coverage should result in a ratings boost this survey & next. And of course, long awaited media coverage of THAT court case in Melbourne towards the end of February.
3: Smooth 95.3 - fairly safe and inoffensive of late, but that seems to be what Sydney likes in their music stations.
4: KIIS 1065 - with Kyle & Jackie O remaining Sydney’s #1 FM breakfast program.

…and after that:

5: Nova 96.9
6: WSFM 101.7 - barely beating Nova at the end of last year, I think this is the survey they’ll (temporarily, Homebush Showground promotion should help WS out in April) fall behind.
7: Triple M 104.9 - The more comedy skewed breakfast program (which probably better compliment the drive shows) could receive slightly improved ratings on The Grill Team.
8: Triple J 105.7 - they usually do well around Hottest 100 time, so wouldn’t be overly surprised if the Js outrate 2DayFM in the year’s first survey.
9: 2DayFM 104.1 - despite production coming home, has there been any buzz about their current breakfast team at all?
10: 2CH 1170 (and in stereo on DAB) - the “Classic Hits” format + Tim Webster/Chris Kearns started halfway through Survey 1, although it might still be long enough for a ratings boost which IMO, is more likely to have a slightly detrimental effect on WSFM than Smooth.
11: ABC Classic FM 92.9
12: Radio National 576
13: ABC NewsRadio 630
14: Macquarie Sports Radio 954 - more about why I think they might again beat Sky in a moment!
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017

At breakfast (hopefully the presenter lineups are still current)…

1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873 - with the announcement of AJ signing a new GB contract on Wednesday.
2: Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer, ABC Radio Sydney 702
3: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
4: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
5: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7
6: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9

Personally I’m not expecting Moonman on Triple M, Indira & Trevor on 2CH or Grant, Ed & Ash on 2DayFM to make much of an impact.

They somehow managed to get ahead of Sky Sports Radio in Sydney at the end of last year, so it wouldn’t overly surprise me if 954AM increases by another .2 or .3 but no more than that.

In Melbourne & Brisbane though, I’m fully expecting asterisks for MSR in most timeslots.


#72

Those who are part of teams with off air acrimony, I hope they’re having a sleepless night, a consequence of their in fighting.