I think the best bet of this happening is if they can scoop the exclusive rights for Stan Sport from 2026 onward (given the current deal with Fox Sports expires next year). Would be a big coup for Stan given that F1 is arguably one of the most popular sports left that’s not locked in until at least 2028.
I could see them putting the whole Aus GP weekend on live on Nine and (based on other rights deals overseas) between 6-10 other races live on Nine or 9Gem depending on the time zone of the race (along with a midweek highlights package on 9Go! like they do for Formula E/Indycar/WEC).
I’m basing this of the AFR report of the new deal reported back in 2022.
I have seen other sources report 2026 however so you might still be correct.
Unfortunately there’s only third party information to rely on as neither F1 nor Foxtel explicitly stated the end date of the deal in their press releases at the time.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nine chase motorsport to complete their 7 year hunt and shake-up of sports telecasting in Australia (tennis, RU, Olympics while renewing NRL, Ashes, CWC and going hard after AFL).
Can’t see them having both Supercars and F1 though. MotoGP is another one with Phillip Island here.
I’d think Supercars with Bathurst and their richer local history and much better time zones would be a better fit, if, they could land a way better deal than the current one. Can’t imagine Foxtel agreeing to even a part deal with Stan, so Nine-Stan might need to snatch the lot.
F1s get good sponsors, Aussie Grand Prix great crowds and global attention/publicity, but the ratings have plummeted vs even 2012 and most of the others have terrible time zones and really poor FTA package in favour of STV. But a Stan package would change that.
I suspect if you were going to choose one it would be F1. Big audience now through Netflix/Drive to Survive which has attracted non-sports fans to watch.
Supercars is waning a bit after losing several stars to retirement/America/contract disputes in recent times.
I get that the AGP offers a good opportunity to pump up the network’s tyres (oh and show a race or two), but does the rest of the season offer any great value from a FTA perspective?
The vast majority of races are at terrible times for the majority of Australians and while there has been some increased interest thanks to Drive to Survive, are they the kind of people who are going to watch it live or are happy to watch it delayed (or even just highlights)?
F1 feels like the last low hanging fruit Nine could sweep up.
The time zones aren’t ideal but alongside the Aus GP you have Japan, China, and Las Vegas in okay time zones, plus a few other marquee events you could drum up viewers on FTA with the two Aussie’s in it. The rest live on Stan. They already have a number of Motorsport categories so the interest must be there somewhat.
It would be a bit of a blow to Foxtel / Kayo. One of the last remaining big name sports that they have almost 100% exclusivity of.
Yes, there is the AFL what in an ideal world I’m sure they would love too but don’t see how they would ever have the money to hold both NRL and AFL, and even if they did how both sporting organisations would be at war over who receives the most promotion and prime position. Unless they want to do an Australian Open / Cricket style swap, I think most bids just exist to pump up the price for 7.
I honestly don’t think that would work, and even if it did, there’d be no guarantee that Seven would promote NRL any better than Nine already do in AFL states anyway, given that any bid or coverage from them would be heavily reliant on Foxtel produced resources.
I think it’s been brought up a little, last by bacco from memory, that NRL seem to have fallen out of love with Nine and clearly love Foxtel. As well as reportedly having bizarre catch-ups with Seven executives, perhaps with V’landy it’d regard their NSW races rights. Maybe they’ve been dealing with Nine still, purely because Seven and 10 (as required under current legislation and surely they’d never not want NRL on FTA) haven’t bid adequately due to their AFL commitment with Foxtel.
So yeah, a strong possibility, TA and subsequently CA via their new networks showed it can be done successfully, I’d say Seven going after NRL and Nine at the same time going after AFL, freshen it up could be a real chance one day.
But if that happens RIP Seven’s south-west stations and their long-held dominance and history. Same for Nine and their north-east markets.
Will be interesting to see if Nine try to scoop up the complete rights for AFL or NRL in next negotiations and completely freeze Fox Sports out by putting games on Stan.
Nine previously licensed off five games a week to Fox Sports, though my read of the current deal is that Foxtel now have a direct contract with NRL rather than Nine.
Although you’d have to think Fox would fight tooth and nail to keep broadcasting the games and it only benefits AFL/NRL to have dual broadcasters to play off against one another.
The next AFL rights are for 2025 to 2031 seasons, so I think negotiations for the rights from 2032 onwards may begin towards the end of 2028 with a deal to be signed by the end of 2029.
As I’ve said elsewhere here - NRL Broadcast Rights (2027-?) - #124 by bacco007 - it’s likely to be a significant challenge to unseat Fox with the NRL, thats not to say it isnt possible though.
Nine would have to put forward a very compelling offer. I suspect they’ll try in the next round - I’m interested to see if they bid only as a complete package (Subscription + Free-to-Air rights) or if they bid with the flexibility to accept Free-To-Air only if Fox retain the Subscription rights.
The NRL will be expecting a yearly number starting with 6. This is based on the 647 million the AFL will receive thru 2031. That’s a big number for one broadcaster and a hell of lot of new Stan Sport subscriptions.
And if not, maybe they’d be prepared to walk away, as with Nine and cricket and Seven with tennis and Melb Cup (but with the tennis it was more not taking advantage of their exclusive window and not expecting Nine to bid so exorbitantly - which is exactly what happened).
2025-31 was signed in sept 2022, so I think 2032+ will probably be mid to end of 2030.
Also 2025-31 was rushed because the former CEO was leaving at the end of 2022 season and he wanted it done before he left (he didn’t leave until end of 2023 season)
For a “National” league, not having any presence west of the Great Divide will make it incredibly difficult to achieve anything near what the AFL can currently achieve.
Going early can be a double-edged sword - while it locks you in with a high level of certainty it does potentially mean you can’t take advantage of shifts in the industry. At the same time though, it does put pressure on the other sports that are in and around the AFL to have to try and negotiate their deals.