I think there are a few things at play here - and this in my opinion reflects that radio is ill and unfortunately seems to be committing hara kiri in response and therefore this is a little more serious than a failed technology a la AM Stereo. Some overlapping considerations:
Spotify and the like - you don’t need to be a genius to spot the collapsing size of the music sales section in JB Hi Fi (regardless of the expansion of the area for LPs, which are a profitable niche market for JB). The punters have moved to a monthly subscription to Spotify. This means that when you are at home, why would you listen to the radio for music, you have unlimited songs on Spotify and less ads.
TV focused content - there is a significant amount of content on FM brekky shows relating to what happened on reality show “X”. As I understand, this in part is driven by cross promotion with deals between radio and TV stations or common ownership (just check out Star/Hit Gippsland!) The problem is that the ratings for TV shows is decreasing, despite increasing population. So what are the odds, that if joe public is not interested in reality “X” on telly, they will be interested in recaps, reviews and rumours on radio of the same show the following day…
Inward ratings focus - on these forums it is interesting to note that the TV ratings analysis often has the number of viewers as the primary focus, whereas radio seems to be primarily focussed on market share. It would be interesting to see a trend graph of listeners as a percentage of the population over time - maybe this might start to focus the mind of radio execs on growing the pie (ie increasing the number of listeners) rather than just ranting and raving about being number 1.
DAB awareness - there has been little promotion of the DAB only stations with the treatment of MMM Classic Rock fairly instructive - we don’t want to cannabalise our main station where DAB success actually occurs. In other words - the stations with the big pockets do undertake the promotion for DAB have no commercial need to do so. For the AM stations, they are either talk (and hence limited benefit from promoting DAB) or have limited cash to promote stations (eg Aussie and Koool). I suppose we should be thankful that the Government at the time required the “new” FM stations of EON, 2DAY etc to have new operators, rather than incumbents.
On its current trajectory, I think DAB will be no more than another AM Stereo unless analogue to digital conversion becomes compulsory. Radio listening will decline at home and in the morning, except for in cars - where I think the traffic report will be the main driver (sorry, terrible pun), until driverless cars take over. At work, it is a little harder to predict - but where I am I can already hear a couple of people have moved to Spotify…The rest are on a mix of MMM/Gold/JJJ/Smooth (and on Fridays only - Fox). Interestingly, half the people have DAB enabled radios. The only DAB stations that have recently got a run have been Double J and Grandstand (during the India cricket tour). That is fairly ominous and shows that technology is not making an impact…Ultimately, I think it comes down to relevant content for listeners (I seem to recall Andy Grace or was it Peter Grace wrote a really good comment on this topic on radiotoday) and in an era (as distinct from an eon) of networking, including prizes, this would would seem unlikely…