COVID-19: Discussion of Impact 😷

Victoria’s daily numbers now includes vaccine numbers.

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Big testing numbers again. Nice to see the virus wasn’t flown into the state on day 1!

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It will be interesting to see what comes out of the National Cabinet today in response to last nights vaccine announcement. I guess for the next 1-2 months the vaccine program can proceed as intended but you would think the advice would put some people off wanting the vaccine and by then we would really need to have some batches of Pfizer in Australia. We probably need to get Moderna approved and here ASAP too. Personally I’m still of the view that the benefit outweighs the risk - there are everyday medications such as contraceptive pill that pose very low blood clot risks too that people take. I don’t want this delaying things well into next year.

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UK is still averaging 3000 new cases per day and decreasing slowly. I’ll also predict there will be some red faces at University College London on Monday when the virus has not suddenly disappeared.

48% of the population have had one dose and only 8.5% have had a second of a relatively weak vaccine. and 10% have tested positive and would have some form of natural immunity. Even if you assume there is no overlap between those recovered and those vaccinated you would need a lot of spin and number massaging for the numbers to add up to even the lowest estimates of what herd immunity is. Most American and Asian sources i’ve seen are settling on 85% being the herd immunity number. UK is doing well with its vaccinating, but long way from being in the clear.

This is the edited version of Allen Cheng’s explanation of the statement.

The NSW government has suspended the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine to all age groups.

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They’ve secured 20m more of Pfizer. That should get us through most of the adult population with the original 20m of Pfizer but they won’t be available until the end of the year. Novavax should also be online by then.

The speed is a big issue here.

But not available until Q4 if I heard correctly.

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It’s like an admission of a munumental stuff up with the AZ jab.

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We should’ve gone with more Pfizer to begin with. We put too much faith in astra Zeneca. I understand we have manufacturing capacity here but really should’ve locked down more vaccines to begin with. We are a rich country and shouldn’t be lagging in this area.

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under 50;s to get the astrazeneca will have to provide concent

In the defence of the government, every country was pretty much taking punts at that point around efficacy of vaccines. Backed the wrong horse, yes but it’s a tough one.

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What does this new requirement of Pfizer mean for the GPs and the pharmacists?

Professor Murphy’s response:

“The GP program continues,” he said.
“The GPs, are vaccinating over 50s, over 70s and 80s. They need the vaccine, we’re providing the vaccine, they’re turning up to get vaccinated. The GP program right through 1A and 1B will continue as it is,” he said.
"As we get to 2A, there’s people over 50 and over 60 who will also be able to go to their GPs to get vaccinated.
"It’s true we planned in phase two to rollout pharmacies. We’re looking at how we’ll do that now.
“We need to recalibrate to see how we may get more Pfizer and how we deal with the under 50 as we get to phase 2B.”

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Exactly this. It’s really disappointing to see those, particularly on the left go full conspiracy theory on the choice of Oxford/AZ vaccine. Frustrating to constantly remind people that when these commitments were made it wasn’t even know if any of the vaccines were going to be effective.

As I’ve said in past posts, I actually suspect the hope was that the failed UQ / CSL vaccine would be sufficiently effective as this would have allowed full independence from issues relating to acquiring of vaccines developed overseas.

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