Yeah that’s pretty much it. The biggest thing to remember is that the 90% chance is for ANY rain, not the quoted mm figures. There is a 50% chance of the LOWEST quoted mm amount, and a 25% chance of the HIGHEST quoted amount. The BOM don’t spell this out well enough.
Another rule of thumb is to halve the lowest quoted mm amount as a likely scenario.
Now watch the taps turn off for months. It’s like that in Australia these days. I don’t want to get into an AGW debate here but its effects are as obvious as a large zit on your face.
I would rather too much rain than too little- but we need a solid run of dry weather now. As bad as these floods have been for some people, the bushfires last year were much worse. It can’t be too much to ask to have equable conditions for a while; South Australia and western VIC can manage it.
Lest I be accused again of NSW bias, the system moved down to Tasmania yesterday; a station near St. Marys (Gray) recorded over 200 mm of rain in a day. Unusual for there but warmer sea surface temperatures off eastern Tassie will ensure these events continue.
That depends… on how big your face is.
But seriously, I think we can all agree that NSW needs some dry weather for a while. Which is also as obvious as the aforementioned zit on a comparably sized face.
There is a very easy explanation for this.
The worded forecast that says “Slight chance” is coming through directly from the BOM.
The 90% chance mentioned is coming through from the Weatherzone’s Opticast model.
So BOM is saying “slight chance” and Weatherzone is saying 90% chance.
In my experience, the Weatherzone “chance of rain” is quite inaccurate. It’s better to check the BOM’s chance of rain page for a more accurate idea.
speaking of BOM . does any one know the site of the 7 day weather forcast for you location that bom used to have. it was kinda like what weather zone is . i know it went to a beta version then a full version. i had it once saved but deleted it but now i cant find it. it even had the time if it was going to rain and such. i think it went location.something.bom or bomm.location soemthing
Yes, Gray is an interesting one when the weather comes in with an East Coast Low. They can really get some impressive records, I think there was over 300mm in the 48 hours and I think they once had over 400mm in a day which was impressive. The East Coast of Tas is usually quite dry and will always have the water restrictions before anywhere else in the state because the weather is predominantly from the West but when it comes from the East like this they can get severe flooding which they’ve had a bit of from this event.
Interesting to see the localisation of rainfall again though, the Devonport Airport weather station received 20mm of rain through the event but my station only a few kms away near town was over 57mm.
Is this the one? BoM Places
no buts its kinda right. it was similar to weather zone;s layout with the radar and stuff
This would be it I think
thank you , thank you !1:) i have been looking for ages trying to find it
In the ranges around St. Marys I think. All due to orographic uplift; the process here is identical to what happens around the Illawarra escarpment. It’s just that East Coast Lows are much rarer in Tassie than in NSW (but could become more frequent due to warming sea surface temps).
As you say, the prevailing weather in Tassie is from the west so the east coast is usually quite dry. Mount Read on the west coast- and home to 107.1 7XS- is I think the wettest station overall.
When I visited Big Island in Hawaii I found the weather very interesting. One side is really dry , the other side has one of the wettest ciies in the USA (Hilo). I saw snow there when I went up the mountain ( Mauna Kea) there in February. Cool place for enjoying the weather and scenery especially in Winter.
Yes- Honolulu is in a rain shadow from the prevailing NE trade winds, giving it an unusually dry tropical climate. Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa have tropical alpine climates…you can get altitude sickness on the peaks.
ABC’s 7:30 last night covered the devastation and how expensive flood insurance is.
Even with the mention of the other recent weather disasters (including last summer’s bushfires), there was not even a single tiny mention of global warming.
Just bizarre - and disappointing - how the ABC are now omitting even the simple statement that climate scientists have long warned that the frequency & intensity of severe weather events is impacted by rising annual average temperatures in the atmosphere.
I’m happy for the flood coverage to be for what it is NOW (as below), global warming is an ongoing issue and also relates to droughts and bushfire as well.
I think the human cost (livelihoods and flood damage) should take centre stage here, we can get back to global warming when everyone is back on their feet from this.
I’m not saying they should’ve had a long interview with a climate scientist, but it should’ve been mentioned as increasing extreme weather.
They let a federal minister attack state & local governments and insurance companies, there was talk about mitigation for flooding, but nothing about why the former 100-year-floods are happening so much more frequently.
Not reducing our CO2 emissions is costing people - and governments (so taxpayers & ratepayers) - more for insurance, and uninsured damage.
Australia is the canary in the coal mine for economic and social dislocation caused by climate change, at least in the rich world. It’s important that we get the response right. Sadly we are laggards at this point.
Whilst down at Killcare Heights, I took a pic of the muddy waters emptying from the Hawkesbury River into the ocean. Pretty amazing.
Clear on satellite pics as well. The Georges River often turns sickly brown from floodwaters upstream.
On a more positive note, Lake George has got a bit of a top up from the minor flooding around here.
Perht weather is too hot and the temperature is sitting at 37.2 degrees and it will hit about 38 degrees. I cannot believe why Perth is too hot in late March. I feel that this is quite unseasonal for this time of the year.
