From bushfires to floods in the span of under 18 months. The Black Summer fires started in October 2019 and ended in January last year.
NSW FLOODS 2021
This thread is for discussion on the ongoing NSW Floods 2021. Discuss here about emergency evacuations, latest warnings and news updates.
Last 7 day totals:
- Bellwood: 641mm
- Mooral Creek: 606mm
EVACUATION WARNING - PREPARE NOW
PICTON CBD - 7:17PM, Saturday 20th March
Not actually that uncommon. When fire destroys vegetation is changes water flows. Water that once would have been absorbed/stopped/slowed by vegetation now isnāt.
Letās review the disasters in NSW over the last year and a bit:
Drought (broke in 2020)
Black Summer fires
February 2020 floods
COVID-19 (ongoing)
Several severe storms
Mouse plague (ongoing)
March 2021 floods (ongoing)
I canāt recall a single natural disaster in Victoria, South Australia or Tasmania in that time and really only Melbourne was hit hard with COVID-19. WA had a bushfire or two this summer and a brush with a cyclone. NSW is really the most dangerous place to live in Australia, up there with parts of the US in terms of climate risk.
Queensland has its fair share of disasters too, though it has been trailing NSW by a fair margin lately.
And we have had several MAJOR rain events since the new millennium (ie. 300 mm plus).
And the April 2015 storms also packed 130 km/h winds with it as well.
And we have earthquakes too! (Newcastle, 1989).
Yes- major rain events occur most years, but itās the frequency and variety of catastrophes that has plagued NSW over the past 12 months that is unique.
I forgot about the Kangaroo Island fire last summer and Adelaide Hills bushfire this summer, though these were relatively minor in terms of impact on property and life.
Our bushfire last month coincided with a 5 day lockdown
You must have some decent blinkers on if you reckon the Black Summer fires only affected NSW. South Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and Victoria were also badly affected by those fires.
More recent fires in WA and SA, avian influenza in Victoria, droughts in parts of the country, guess itās not NSW so sheāll be right.
Natural disasters donāt respect state borders.
Watching people driving through flood waters on this live camera chopper on News 24. Madness
Affected yes but they were only truly catastrophic in NSW, with the small (but significant) exception of east Gippsland, and also parts of the Gold Coast just over the border. The majority of the population in those other states werenāt directly affected at all, apart from perhaps some smoke haze.
The main point was to illustrate the remarkable run of events in NSW, not to downplay events in other states. Natural disasters donāt respect state borders but they seem to be taking a particular liking to us at the moment.
Yes that sucked for Perth and I had plenty of sympathy for you at that time. Concurrent disasters are much worse than a single disaster.
Looks like Iām not going either to Newcastle or Olympic Park, in case I canāt get home.
How disrespectful of those people who were killed and had their homes and businesses destroyed just to claim that NSW is the only state to suffer from natural disasters.
Yes theyāve had a shockingly bad run, but to cast aside all those thousands of people in Victoria, South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania as being insignificant truly is astounding. Please do a little revision of that summer and the events around the country since.
NSW, Queensland, northern NT and northern WA are inherently more vulnerable to severe flooding and severe storms than the southern states. They receive tropical and subtropical weather systems in summer which are generally warm and wet. More energy in the atmosphere generally means more severe weather. Victoria, South Australia and especially Tasmania are usually moderated by the much cooler Southern Ocean. There is more wild weather in winter down there than in the northern states, but its impact is usually less severe than a warm season cyclone or severe rain event.
Thatās not to say flooding and storms DONāT occur in the southern states, but severe events are less common than further north. I actually experienced the Hobart flood in 2018 and all the while I was thinkingā¦this is just like back home in Sydney!
Bushfire risk is more evenly distributed, with the affected states in any particular summer determined by prevailing weather patterns and drought severity. Eastern Australia copped it recently, but the southern states have had it just as bad in other years (1983, 2009). I actually class East Gippsland as part of eastern Australia in terms of general weather patterns (closer to SE NSW); classic Victorian winter rain is generally scarce from Bairnsdale eastward. Queensland usually has less bushfire risk than either NSW or the southern states, though last summer and the summer before that bucked this trend.
I actually would claim that NSW is the worst affected state overall, on average, because of its vulnerability to most natural hazards. Itās in the perfect position to receive a mix of tropical/subtropical hazards (intense rainfall, severe storms, even the occasional cyclone) and temperate zone hazards such as winter storms, drought, and bushfire. Thatās just a function of its latitude. Itās also densely populated in the areas most affected by flood and fire. WA and QLD follow closely behind; WA because of its sheer size (but lower population density), and QLD due to its greater exposure to tropical/subtropical hazards.
I did not say that other states arenāt affected: to claim that would be nonsense as you point out. Iām sorry if you interpreted it this way. Victoriaās Black Saturday fires are still the most shocking natural disaster to have occurred in my lifetime in terms of loss of life.
My main claim was to assert that NSW has had it worse than most other states over the past year, which this article seems to lead credence to:
You can add the Western Australian bushfires, COVID-19 lockdowns in several states, and the current NSW floods to this. The mouse plague has affected QLD as well as NSW, and may spread to grain growing areas in VIC as well. Iām unsure as to the extent of avian influenza; looks like it was bad last year but may be controlled now?
Hello Sunshine!
Welcome back, we have missed you!
Any day without rain is a good one here, though Newcastle (400 mm in last 6 days) fared better than those further up the coast. Kempsey had double that.
I donāt really get some aspects weather forecasts. Weather Zone today says, Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.
However the chance of rain today is 90%. (how can that be slight)? Never really understood what āchanceā is measured against. If there is one drop of rain is that 100%, or is there a minimum amount of rain for it to flip over to 100% or I am completely missing something here 
.
Do you know what āmeteorologistā means in English? It means liar. - Lewis Black
Chance of rain across the whole forecast area, which likely includes the entire Sydney metro area.
90% chance that at least one suburb will see rain, for instance. Considering the whole forecast they likely suspect an isolated thunderstorm or shower that could impact a highly variable area.
So given Sydney is big it is still only a slight change you will get rainā¦ but 90% chance that one suburb will get it. According to Wikipedia Sydney has 685 suburbs. So there is a 90% that at least one will get it. But if only 1 out of 685 gets rain it ā100%ā but its only a slight chance as there are so many suburbs in Sydney.