The scary thing is that even this heatwave will probably be surpassed in January. Usually the worst heat doesn’t arrive until after Christmas. There will be nothing to stop the continent from heating even further because the monsoon is totally AWOL.
We basically had a month long heatwave last January with Canberra averaging 35C; I reckon this will be obliterated next month. Coastal areas will fare better as there’s absolutely zero humidity at the moment.
Some of these South Australian temps are insane. Some places forecasting 47-49 degrees tomorrow.
But this Oodnadatta forecast caught my eye for the overnight minimum. But then some parts of Adelaide aren’t expected to drop below 30 degrees tonight either.
The record minimum temperature for Australia was set last summer; 35.9 at Noona NSW, between Cobar and Wilcannia. At least Sydney and especially Canberra do not see those insanely warm nights, because of NE sea breezes and cool air drainage from nearby mountains.
Melbourne does cop the odd oppressive night as well, because the ranges aren’t high enough to protect the city from hot northerlies at night.
…and Saturday’s forecast maximum temperature for Penrith is 47°C, which means that Western Sydney suburb very well could be in with a chance of breaking the current maximum temperature record of 47.3°C that was set on January 7, 2018.
Again, I really hope this never happens but it’d genuinely wouldn’t surprise me if Penrith cracked the big 5-0 within the next decade or so.
This would be the summer to do it, with soil moisture at a near record low. You really need a direct blast of heat from the desert to get 50C in Australia. Penrith is in a ‘special’ position in a semi enclosed valley at the foot of the Blue Mountains, which is why it’s often the hottest place in eastern NSW. I reckon 48C is possible, though.
Climate change is bringing longer heatwaves that affect a broader area of Australia but it doesn’t seem to be increasing the absolute upper bound of the tail, at least for the moment. We haven’t even come close to Oodnadatta’s 50.7 in 1960 in recent summers (by close, I mean within a few decimal points).
Smoke can travel a long way given the right synoptic setup. Hopefully Victoria doesn’t suffer as much as NSW this summer; there will be no refuge from the smoke otherwise. Port Fairy looks like the place to be…
Nowra on the NSW’s South Coast has hit 45.6°C this afternoon!!
Canberra has broken a December record for highest temperature, exceeding the 40 mark for the first time ever for that month. The previous record, prior to this week, was 39.2°C on 21st December 1994 (25 years ago today, in fact).