Climate, Weather and Emergencies

Sure is… wind gusts of up to nearly 80 km/h today so far.

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I would argue it’s largely consistent with news coverage dramatising/sensationalising most events these days.

Meanwhile, this morning was officially the first doona day here in Brisbane. The seasons are finally turning.


I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s more to do with weather changes.

The Bureau did say there was a “risk” that some areas of the region may experience large amounts of rainfall. One weather model was predicting 200-400mm of rain in a short space of time , if the right conditions lined up. While others weren’t. Even non-BoM meteorologists such as Anthony Cornelius and amateur weather forecasters were saying the confidence on the forecasting wasn’t great, due to the various model dis-agreeance.

So if anything, I think it’s likely more the case of both the Bureau covering their bases, in case the prediction is right. Recently they got queried about why the flooding around Cairns after ex-Cyclone Jasper stalled as a rain depression, was not forecast or even spoken about highly until it happened.

But equally, parts of the media picking out specific facts based on comments or media interviews. It wasn’t the entire SEQ region which could have seen those conditions, rather it would have likely just been the areas around the Scenic Rim, Gold Coast and southern border ranges. But still broad statements like “South-East Queensland on flood watch” were being made.

To me it seems that even rain events that are only expected to produce 25 mm take on the status of a major news story with their own report with live crosses etc. Used to be that an inch of rain was a line item in the weather report to end the bulletin.

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It’s about bloody time too👍

Thanks for reminding me. I need to buy a new one.

It was the coolest morning here too since last spring.

And good preparation for my Tassie trip next week.


Tropical cyclone Paul forms in Coral Sea off Far North Queensland

A Tropical cyclone has formed off the Queensland coast in the Coral Sea and is intensifying as it moves south east, the Bureau of Meteorology has warned.

Tropical cyclone Paul is currently a category 2 system situated in the far northeast Coral Sea, opposite Cairns.

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast the cyclone to track southeast towards Cape York Peninsula overnight, before weakening on Friday.

Looks like this stationary High which has been hanging around won’t be going anywhere for the next week again, great for those in Melbourne and Adelaide, NSW coast is in for a rain week as a consequence sadly.

Yep looks like it… Newcastle has already had 190 mm this month and up to another 80 mm forecast across the next 7 days with showers forecast every day.

Why it’s been so wet in much of NSW lately, and dry in other states like VIC

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I note some outlets this week pushing the climate card.

It’s literally just a stationary High causing SE winds to then slam the NSW coast. Perhaps some of these people need a briefing on how a High works and what happens if an ocean lies underneath it.

It’s not a rain bomb either. It’s just a High doing its thing.


Is this right?

Driest 12 months on record for big chunk of WA
Here’s one more chart that should give reason for hope for residents of the southwest. It shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the waters off the coast.

With warmer than usual waters, there’s a greater chance of storms and heavy downpours when moisture-laden winter cold fronts start sweeping northward from southern waters.

The positive IOD isn’t all bad news for the southwest either. While it tends to point towards a drier winter (and worse snow season) for the southeast, the southwest can see more rain than average.

I thought a Positive IOD meant less rain to the SWLD of WA. However, according to Weatherzone it means that Perth and SW may get above average rain this winter.


Apparently, we are headed for another La Nina phase, so may be a sign of things to come again. I hope I’m wrong.

“Polar Blast” is the weather phrase of the day.


More like just a routine southerly breeze. Not even much snow for the mainland Alps.

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Perth got a good soaking overnight .

I notice it got really muggy on Dec 1 and although Yeppoon has double and sometimes triple the average number of 30 deg days , by early March it was already cooler and wetter.

My fan went off in March and then it seems to keep slowly cooling ever since.

Still slightly warmer than average at night .

Sydney had 142 mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am today.