Isn’t a lot (if not most) of Melbourne’s growth from overseas immigration too?
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No. New York City is still much larger than Los Angeles. We’re talking cities here not States.
Anyway NSW still has a far bigger population than Victoria and almost certainly always will - if you’re talking states that is.
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Exactly, which is why I’m wondering whether the media will eventually feel the need to move some stuff from Sydney to Melbourne to reflect the likely possibility of another city taking over the mantle as Australia’s largest/most populated.
Obviously there’ll most likely always be a strong broadcast media industry in Sydney and a fair bit of TV & radio content for a national audience produced here, just as there was plenty coming out of Melbourne (including high profile nationally screened programs) while Sydney was Australia’s most populated city for decades.
Unless regional Victoria somehow enjoys a major growth spurt, I agree that NSW will likely always be the more populated state overall.
This thread will turn your brain to rot.
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Victoria would be a very crowded place with NSW population. It’s not gonna happen.
I highly doubt media and other HQs will feel the need to move from Sydney to Melbourne just because Melbourne pips Sydney’s population by a few hundred thousand over the next couple of decades.
That’s assuming it even happens. Don’t get me wrong, it could. But these type of forecasts are notoriously variable hence why even the ABS publishes various scenarios, usually three. After the last census not all scenarios predicted Melbourne would overtake Sydney.
Remember in the early 90s there were solid predictions Brisbane would overtake Melbourne - didn’t happen. Until very recently Perth was predicted to overtake Brisbane - now not gonna happen.
Anyway either ways there’s not going to be a lot in it between Sydney and Melbourne for decades to come.
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Radio is pretty much 50/50 between the two.
You would think the Melbourne TV market would be growing in size. Does anyone have recent stats?
I don’t think we’ll see shows like Sunrise and Today move cities, but for example if Ten was going to re-enter the breakfast market or if Seven launched a new news program at 7pm, basing the shows out of Melbourne would have real advantages.
Historically, the networks will always have a strong foothold in Sydney.
@blackbox I would be interested in your thoughts?
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Interesting point about comparing TV markets for each actually changes the story completely!
Sydney’s official metro population doesn’t include Gosford and the Central Coast, BUT the Sydney TV market DOES.
This means that even if Melbourne overtakes Sydney in population, the Sydney TV market will likely always be bigger.
So official metro populations don’t tell the full story regarding media markets.
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Yes, but they also change with population growth. Hence why I can see the Melbourne market increasing its footprint.
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Actually, it does, along with the Blue Mountains: Greater Sydney Statistical Division
Yes, but unlike with Sydney, they also gained people through interstate migration, particularly those from the former.
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Given the investment Seven has made in Eveleigh and Nine is making in North Sydney and the smaller spaces the networks operate out of in Melbourne, I can’t see anything changing. With 150 staff gone/going from 7BCM, playout being moved to Sydney and Victoria Government’s plans to redevelop the stadium I would expect they’ll be operating out of even smaller premises when the time comes to move. Can’t see Ten investing in anything bigger for Melbourne considering they’ve made do with the South Yarra set up since 1992.
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Very true, I remember that too, that was before we found out about global warming and suddenly Melbourne’s climate has become much more appealing than Brisbane’s.
You could say the same thing about Geelong being included in the Melbourne TV market too, it’s population is not much smaller than the Central Coast.
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Valid points.
And the new Seven building in Melbourne will have to house enough room for the Seven Sport production staff etc. which currently occupies a floor and the rest at BCM.
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There have been discussion going around, that Melbourne’s s new facilities might occupie more studio space. One of the reasons, is to bring programming back in house. Expect to see The Chase and other light entertainment shows return under a HSV7 roof.
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That would be circular, given that the Chase is produced in the former HSV7 studios - before Seven flogged them off.
With the increase in local content and the abandonment of overseas shows, it’s a good idea for all networks. Don’t expect anything like the former studios of the 80/90s, but the need for a larger entertainment studio is now there.
Ten are now doing this in Sydney.
I think there was an opportunity to move the TODAY show to Melbourne when they blew the whole thing up this year. Relocating to Melbourne would be a huge deal of course as most people who work on the show are Sydney based, but Sydney viewers don’t care if the show is made in Sydney whereas Melbourne viewers do. There would be some ratings points in it for sure.
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Thanks for the insight.
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Earlier in the year the SMH had an article comparing cities that are traditional rivals, including:
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You can do all that in one afternoon, and its pretty much all in the same spot.
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So while Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is still playing in Melbourne (possibly well into 2021), Sydney will have its own Hamilton.
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