October 8th actually. In fact, the switch happens on 8:08am on the 8th. Has a nice ring to it. 
If that were to occur, it would be quite incredible to see an AM music station in a metro market in 2021-22 take out the #1 overall position. 
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Sorry about that, had the revised Radio Ratings Survey date in-mind moreso than the switch of 4BC/4BH!
I agree.
Might come back to this thread for more comprehensive Survey #6 predictions from a Sydney perspective closer to the delayed survey release date, but in the meantime Iâd probably expect to see fairly similar results as Survey #5.
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My prediction would be further declines in share for the music stations in Sydney and Melbourne. 702 / 774 gaining in Sydney and Melbourne. 2GB and 3AW to be clear leaders in their market.
Ben Fordham to stay ahead of Kyle
2day to be beaten by 2UE. Will it be the lowest share ever for the station and a breakfast show they have broadcast?
SA, WA and QLD which are not affected by lockdowns should have normal trends.
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Great foresight @Brianc68.
The only positive is that by October, the day/night switching occurs earlier than when most turn on for bfast.
Itâs winter thatâs the real trouble:
Full power only by 7:35/40am, night power (6.3kW at most towards the ocean east of Bribie and perhaps as low as 1.489kW along the null) begins at just prior to 4pm.
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⌠be introduced to the way in which radio surveys are conducted in Australia.
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Not entirely 2DayFM-related, so Iâm continuing the ratings prediction discussion in here!
Youâre probably right, however some music stations are likely to fare better than others.
From a Sydney market perspective, youâd have to say that KIIS, Smooth and WSFM will probably be the least adversely affected music stations by the current lockdowns - hovering around the 6-7% range, with the #1 music station perhaps scoring around 8%. Nova & Triple M will probably be around the 4-5% range. And as for poor old 2DayFMâŚ
LOL, youâre probably rightâŚeven though there were obviously problems with 2DayFMâs strategy for 2021 before the current/recent lockdowns!
Iâd even go as far as saying that we might see the automated/voicetracked breakfast show with Steve Jacobs on 2UE outrate 2DayFMâs Morning Crew with Hughesy, Ed & Erin. Imagine how embarrassing that would be! 
Probably somewhere around the 1.8-2.2% range would be my guess, with 2UE around the 2.5-2.8% range.
One Iâd really like to see before the end of the year (but probably wonât see on Thursday): Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer managing to outrate Ben Fordham in at least one survey before their ABC Sydney brekky program finishes!
Still saving the more comprehensive lot of predictions until Wednesday though.
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Wow 1.8-2.2 for 2day fm, and 4-5 share points for Nova 969 would be the worst ratings for these stations in their history if your predictions come true.
Watch the management of these stations deflect blame for their poor programming decisions by blaming the COVID-19 pandemic for changes in listening habits.
Anyway Thursday will be an interesting read, and will create a bit of discussion here.
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From a Sydney perspective, most conversations after the release of Survey #6 tomorrow are probably going to centre around an incredibly poor ratings performance by 2DayFM.
To be quite honest, I expect to see the lowest ever ratings for 104.1. The only shining light for SCA is that 2CH is no longer on 1170AM, otherwise 2DayFM would probably be 2nd last rather than an expected 3rd (or if theyâre really lucky, 4th) last!
Anyway, where was I? The predictions! 
1: 2GB 873
2: ABC Radio Sydney 702
3: KIIS 1065
4: Smooth 95.3
5: WSFM 1017
âŚand after that:
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple J 105.7
8: Triple M 104.9
9: ABC Classic 92.9
10: 2UE 954
11: Radio National 576
12: ABC NewsRadio 630
13: 2DayFM 104.1
14: Sky Sports Radio 1017
15: SEN 1170
At breakfast:
1: Ben Fordham Live, 2GB 873
2: Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer, ABC Radio Sydney 702 (with possibly less than 1% separating them and 2GB)
3: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
4: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7
5: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
2UEâs automated/voicetracked brekky show with Steve Jacobs will probably outrate the 2DayFM Morning Crew with Hughesy, Ed & Erin. 2GB and ABC Sydney to be the top stations with both around 14-16% overall and peaks somewhere around 15-18% in key breakfast/morning shifts.
In the Digital Radio survey, expect a number of offerings from the ABC & ARN to be at the top while NTS & SEN Melbourne remain in the gutter.
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Hi everyone. I just read the first results for the year are our this Thursday. Any predictions?
Listening the past few weeks I think Gold in Melbourne will have a great survey. 3AW will probably increase share too. Fox and Triple M wonât have a great book and Nova will slightly increase with Smooth staying steady.
In Sydney, I think WSFM will drop, KIIS will remain #1 FM and breakfast will dominate breakfast again but Smooth will increase and hold #2 outright with an increase in breakfast. 2GB will increase share and remain #1 outright but Ben Fordham will lose ground. 2Day will increase 0.1 or 0.2 share and Triple M will have a shocker. ABC will do well.
Brisbane. Nova will win overall. 93.7 will win breakfast and 4KQ will have a good book but will slightly drop. Triple M and B105 will both have terrible books.
Adelaide, I think Ben & Liam on Nova will go back to #1 FM. 5AA will have a steady book and Mix 102.3 will drop. Cruise 1323 will have a slight gain. I have a feeling the ABC will dominate Adelaideâs survey 1.
Perth, quick and simple. Nova will dominate, Triple M will drop again and breakfast will hit a new low. Hit wonât have a great book, 96FM will be a distant second and I think youâll see 6IX and ABC have gains in Survey 1.
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Iâm not sure of the exact period of the survey, but I expect to see some gains for 4BH with the easy music format, either this survey or next. Agree Triple M and B105 will likely disappoint. Itâs hard to predict 97.3 vs 4KQ, they seem to bounce around a little. But I wouldnât be surprised if 4KQ at least holds steady, and may even bump up a little higher.
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Survey 1 covers January 16 to February 26, whilst ACE took over operations of 2UE, Magic & 4BH on January 14. So the whole of Survey 1 will cover those three stations being operated under ACE.
It will be interesting to see how those three will perform in the ratings this survey & beyond.
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I think weâll see a constant and steady growth in share for the ACE leased stations. Well I hope so for them.
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4KQ actually sounds really good. Iâve had them on a fair bit lately. I agree, I think theyâll go up. They seem to be filling a void in the Brisbane market and I hope whoever buys them keeps that going.
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Have a listen to 4KQ on weekends - very, very adventurous. The weekday playlist is a lot more conservative.
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KIIS 1011 is bound to fall a bit with Jase and Laurenâs extended break.
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Agree. Thatâs why I didnât even include them in my original post. KIIS Melbourne is in need of some help urgently. ARN would be best to pump in Kyle & Jackie O.
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They wouldnât be. Jase & Lauren is actually a great show IMO, but KIIS 1011 just lacks the listeners to make it big.
If thereâs one thing about the Melbourne market it is that they love their local content and people in Melbourne.
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I would expect a rise 10+ out of Triple M Perth. Not a big rise, but not a drop either.
They have the only local drive show on commercial FM, which they have been promoting widely across the city. Probably also will have a knock on effect to keep breakfast steady.
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I have heard this many times. Is there any stations that donât have local talent? I can only think of national drive shows. I canât think of any others? If so does it show in their ratings?
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