strong text ,]listeners from ABC RADIO Melbourne will follow Gerard Whateley tO 1116 SEN this will boost 1116 SENâs Ratinns in Melbourne and cause ABC Melbourne RatiNgs ti fall in a big way.
Survey 1 this week isnât it?
Iâm not sure that the moving of one person from ABC to SEN will translate to huge ratings losses for ABC. I think ABC might feel more pain though from losing Red Symons in the breakfast slot.
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strong text RED SYMONS AS A GUEST O 1116 SEN SOME THURSDAYS WITH GERARD WHATELEY hence he could be signed by SEN to be part of their beakfastr show is either a co-host or a fill in
No, itâs released next Tuesday (13th March).
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Media Spy has a thread for radio ratings predictions! 
Anyway, hereâs what I think the running order might be in the Sydney radio market for Survey #1:
1: 2GB 873
2: Smooth 95.3
3: ABC Radio Sydney
4: KIIS 1065
âŚand after that:
5: WSFM 1017
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple J 105.7
8: Triple M 104.9
9: 2DayFM 104.1
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: Radio National 576
12: 2CH 1170
13: Talking Lifestyle 954 - Low ratings for the final survey before being relaunched with a Sport format.
14: ABC NewsRadio (old brand was quietly brought back over Summer) 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017
At breakfast:
1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
4: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
5: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
6: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7
IMO, the results of Survey #2 will probably be more interesting as far as the Sydney market is concerned.
My guesses for Melbourne:
Key thoughts:
- for ABC Mel and Gold dumping the existing hosts will result in a drop brekky that flows through to the rest of the day. 3AW wins from ABC Mel changes;
- Wil Anderson replacing Mick Molloy will have a small impact on brekky, but may help 3MMM overall;
- Kiis change in brekky will have limited impact in the first survey;
- TLS1278 will continue at âtest patternâ ratings
- Fox, Nova100 and Smooth benefit from consistency
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Radio Ratings Survey #1 2018 2Moro
FM Predictions: + Going Up - Going Down
Sydney-
Nova +
smooth FM -
2DayFM +
Triple M +
KIIS -
WS FM -
JJJ -
Melbourne-
Nova -
smooth FM -
Fox -
Triple M +
KIIS +
Gold -
JJJ +
Brisbane-
Nova -
Hit +
97.3 -
Triple M +
JJJ +
Adelaide-
Mix 102.3 -
Nova +
Hit +
Triple M -
JJJ -
Perth-
Mix 94.5 -
Hit +
Nova -
96.1 +
JJJ -
Predictions Based on the Market and the Sound of the Radio Station
With Survey 2 to be released tomorrow, Tuesday 24th April how will they finish???
2GB to be number 1# as always in Sydney
3AW in Melbourne
Mix 94.5 in Perth
Will it be Nova 106.9, 97.3 or Hit 105 in Brisbane??
Mix 102.3 in Adelaide
What are peopleâs thaughts?
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It probably goes without saying that 2GB will most likely always be the #1 station on Sydney AM and radio overall for as long as they have Alan Jones & Ray Hadley!
As far as the Sydney FM stations go, KIIS & WSFM will probably be the most popular. #1 & #2 FM spots could go either way, but IMO it seems likely that the ARN stations will do well in Sydney due to their breakfast shows and other factors like the heavy promotion at Homebush over Easter.
Smooth 95.3 & Nova 96.9 will probably do OK, but rate behind the ARN stations. 2DayFM will get a slight ratings increase overall (due to a positive buzz about the music format), but continue to struggle at breakfast.
Talking Lifestyle/Macquarie Sports Radio 954 will probably rate below 2CH and even ABC Classic FM 92.9.
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Talking about the buzz of 2dayâs music playlist they are the least repetitive of the CHRâs. They repeat their popular hits on average every 5 hours.
KIIS are averaging 4 hours.
Nova 96.9 today are 3-3.5 hours which is a improvement for them. More changes again to their workday with Throwbacks at 9am, then fresh 10 update straight after. Throwbacks again at 12 noon and then fresh 10 update again at 3pm but with different songs at 3pm compared to the 9am fresh 10 update.
With these new changes to workdays and weekends IMO this may not be a good book for Nova 96.9 so management have got in early and made changes. I could be completely wrong though.
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Ratings Predictions for Tomorrow:
FM Stations
Sydney
- smoothfm 95.3 up 1-2%
- WSFM down 0-1%
- Nova up 1-2%
- MMM up 2-3%
- KIIS down 2-3%
- 2DAY up 1-2%
- JJJ down 1-2%
Melbourne - FOX steady on 11%
- MMM up 2-3%
- Gold down 0-1%
- smoothfm 91.5 down 1-2%
- Nova up 0-1%
- KIIS down 0-1%
- JJJ up 0-1%
Adelaide - Mix down 2-3%
- MMM up 0-1%
- Hit up 1-2%
- Nova up 0-1%
- JJJ up 0-1%
Brisbane - 97.3 up 0-1%
- Hit steady on 12%
- Nova down 1-2%
- MMM up 1-2%
- JJJ down 1-2%
Perth - Mix steady on 16%
- Hit up 1-2%
- Nova down 2-3%
- JJJ down 0-1%
- 96FM up 1-2%
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Some thoughts for Melbourne and some may even be right (I forgot to check with Sharina on TLS before her show ended):
SCA
Fox - up across the board. Seems to be more radios at work tuning into the Fox than before
Triple M - up across the board - both footy and Kennedy/Molloy being drivers
Govt
ABC 774 - (hopefully) down for the wannabe âliteâ Brekky. Dayparts to hold.
Triple J - small drop.
RN/ABCFM/3PB - Small increase for RN Brekky, from ex ABC774 listeners who donât like the ads on 3AW
Macquarie
3AW - still no 1. Basically stable.
MSR/TL1278 - too early for MSR to do anything meaningful
CrocMedia
SEN - small increase due to footy season starting, but probably underwhelming
CR1377 - please join the ratings
ARN
Kiis - drop with insufficient cut through
Gold - generally drops with the footy (SEN and Triple M offset)
NovaEnt
Smooth - steady as she goes
Nova100 - up in brekky and down in dayparts with the audience rejecting the lights out at 9am approach
I know I am a day early but here is my ratings predictions for Radio Ratings Metro Survey 3 2018
Melbourne:
- 3AW steady
- Fox steady
- ABC up
- MMM up
- Gold down
- smoothfm down
- KIIS up
- JJJ up
- Nova down
- SEN steady
Sydney - 2GB steady
- smoothfm up
- ABC up
- KIIS down
- WSFM down
- MMM up
- 2Day up
- Nova down
- JJJ up
- 954 AM
Brisbane - 97.3 down
- Hit up
- Nova down
- MMM down
- 4KQ up
Adelaide - Mix steady
- ABC up
- Nova up
- Hit up
- MMM down
Perth - Mix steady
- Hit up
- Nova up
- JJJ up
- ABC down
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My predictions for Sydney:
1: 2GB 873
2: KIIS 1065
3: ABC Radio Sydney 702
4: Smooth 95.3
âŚand after that:
5: Nova 96.9
6: WSFM 101.7
7: Triple M 104.9
8: 2DayFM 104.1
9: Triple J 105.7
10: ABC Classic FM 92.9
11: Sydneyâs 2CH 1170
12: Talking Lifestyle/Macquarie Sports Radio 954 (Survey #4 is the first full survey for the new station)
13: Radio National 576
14: ABC NewsRadio 630
15: Sky Sports Radio 1017
Sydney breakfast predictions:
1: Alan Jones, 2GB 873
2: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
3: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
4: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
5: Robbie Buck, ABC Radio Sydney 702
6: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 1017
Although I think 2DayFMâs numbers will increase in other timeslots with the overall ratings figure being just enough to lift the station ahead of Triple J in the Sydney radio ratings, 2DayFM breakfast ratings may suffer slightly from Em Rusciano saying âI donât think Iâm suited to breakfast radioâ and reports of in-studio tension in recent media reports. TBH, I actually wouldnât be overly surprised if 2DayFM just decides to run automated music or a Fox FM simulcast (but with local news/traffic/weather breaks, of course) at breakfast by the end of this year.
Like Macquarie Sports Radio, it wonât be until Survey 4 until we really know what the paring of Trevor Sinclair & Indira Naidoo is doing for the ratings of 2CH breakfast. Although I donât particularly like seeing (or more to the point, hearing) any program fail, I personally wouldnât be overly surprised if 2CH decides to cut back to one presenter for the breakfast shift within 12 months because having two presenters is probably a bit âtoo FMâ for Sydneyâs only AM music station.
As always, Iâd be rather interested to hear what others think!
Donât expect much tomorrow except 2Day maybe having another increase, Gold dropping a bit in Melbourne, 973 increasing in Brisbane, Mix maintaining in Adelaide and Mix maintaining in Perth
Wow, talk about being way off the mark last time!
For Survey #4 in Sydney, I reckon 2GB will again be the #1 station on AM & overall. Whether you love or hate them (I tend to lean towards the latter category myself), Alan Jones & Ray Hadley are just unstoppable in their respective timeslots and probably will be #1 for as long as theyâre on the air.
Of the FM stations, the #1 spot will probably go to either KIIS 106.5 or WSFMâŚIâm leaning slightly towards the latter with a possible ratings boost for Jonesy & Amanda. Either way, Iâm expecting the ARN duopoly and Smooth 95.3 to be Sydneyâs top three FM stations.
Triple J, Triple M & Nova will likely be around mid-pack as they usually are. Nova will be prevented from rating better due to an over-repetitive playlist while the Ms will be prevented from rating better due to a fairly niche and inconsistent format.
2DayFM will continue to gain listeners and if they can keep the internal infighting (if you can believe certain media reports that were out earlier this year) under control, the breakfast show might even have a chance of continuing in 2019.
Although the newly formatted 2CH Breakfast program started 1 week into Survey 4, itâs probably been on-air long enough to make a prediction about how itâs going so I will make one: Personally I wonât be overly surprised if Trevor Sinclair & Indira Naidoo gain a few disgruntled ex-John & Garry listeners from 954AM, although most will probably go to Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer on ABC Radio Sydney 702AM. Canât imagine 2GB or commercial FM stations gaining ex-954AM breakfast listeners.
Speaking of Macquarie Sports Radio: After a 1.9% figure when the station was still Talking Lifestyle for a good chunk of the first half (March 11 to April 14) of Survey #3, I actually think they might get ratings below 1% this time. Iâm kind of split on whether or not MSR will rate below Sky Sports Radio this survey, but wonât be overly surprised if that happens before the end of the year.
My predictions are more hopes than anything.
For MRN to be down both BH and BC in Bris along with the rest of the MSR disaster in Sydney and Melb.
Keep devaluing the licences, innovative operators will eventually be able to afford the market value.
And when will the ABC get the message of their younger, dumber and disastrous changes to content and presenters in the two morning slots for local radio? Need more down results for that.
One prediction I know is a certainty, Craig will continue to indulge in laughable ten minute back patting as he attempts to turn ratings day into a sport review. Will be a well polished piece of doo doo by survey 8.
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Goldâs ratings will go down & their listeners will come to MacQuarie Sporrts Radio 1278 due to my Commments on Goldâs Facebook Page.
I hear a lot more Sydney radios tuned to 2DayFM than I did at the beginning of the year. I donât know if this will be reflected in the ratings though. The breakfast show and lack of promotion of the new music format are not helping the station. The music is the winner though.
I would be shocked if MSR improved its ratings. I have not listened to 954 for months and I would have represented close to a third of their audienceâŚ