Turnbull still had 40 backers in the 85-person party room. 40 people opposed having a leadership spill.
You’ll recall one of the key moments this week was when cabinet ministers Mathias Cormann , Mitch Fifield and Michaelia Cash stood up and publicly declared they had resigned and wanted Turnbull gone as PM. They said this was because a majority of their colleagues felt the same way. Turns out this was not true. If those three had stayed with Turnbull, he would have survived. They – and others – are damaged by this.
I know you keep saying this and are set on this but from everything ive read and listened to today it says earliest will be January next year. Would love to see where you are getting this info.
Morrison won’t be in a rush to go to the polls unless he is forced to. I would give it the summer, let the media loudmouths go off on their 4-6 week breaks and then come back after a quiet few weeks to call a mid-February election. Keep the campaign short and build around a new policy narrative rather than running on an attack platform.
They are going to lose whatever they do, it’s about minimising the damage at this point. February is getting a bit close to the NSW election but I think a more moderate loss in February will hurt in NSW less than a landslide this side of Christmas. It’s a big risk to take though.
Just remembered Scott Morrison is an evangelical extreme fundamentalist Christian or some thing like that. This better no influence his decision making in a secular country such as Australia.
Wouldn’t rule out an October or November election this year yet, public and Labor will all be heavily pushing for it, not sure if it’s best for Liberal to call early or wait (as in will things get any better or only worse). Also could GG push for an early election on behalf of Aussie public is believes it could he best with further instability?
But there seems to be stability. The only reason why the GG would get involved is if decision cannot get made in parliament. Not for this. Plus the public has no say on when the election is. I wouldn’t ‘rule’ it out but I cannot see Morrison saying lets have an election with only a month of campaigning. He needs to unite the party and push some bills and then announce an election. I would say January at the earliest. As it gives him the Summer to campaign.
Knowing that he’s the #1 ticket holder for the club, one who’ll probably do something absolutely cringeworthy or embarrassing in the media if the Sharks make it into (let alone win) this year’s NRL Grand Final?
I agree. Scott Morrison will probably still be the member for Cook after the next Federal Election, but it wouldn’t overly surprise me if at least 10-15 seats swing Labor’s way.
Aren’t you forgetting that the Victorian state election is being held in November? They’re not going to clash with that (or the NSW election next March)!
They simply haven’t got the money to fight an election yet. They’re hurting in Victoria for that reason, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re voting in February at the earliest
They’ll never have the money. No one will give them money. They’re going to lose. They’ve got to fight Victoria in November and NSW in March. It’s a disaster for libs. Well deserved disaster.
If they haven’t got the money now, how are they expecting to get it by next year? I can’t see anybody, including corporations, lining up to throw money at them anytime soon. Particularly given the corporate tax cuts are dead for big business.
antony green is saying the election will eb next year but i wouldn’t be too sure about that… i can see sco-mo running to the GG to try and capitlise on any bounce they get (i doubt they will get any though)
I doubt they’ll get any bounce, at the moment people are just pissed off that it’s happened again> I do hope though that they can work for a bit and get some traction (and unity, I’m looking at you Abbott) and actually make the next election a contest because at the moment they’ll lose in a landslide and if it had gone to Dutton or Abbott, the landslide would have been much bigger. Under Turnbull, they would have lost but not by as much as if it was held today.
Someone mention why i said mid to late October for an federal election.
I am going to reveal something but just be warned, how you understand the following should not get you upset either way:
There was 3 key issues the hard-right wanted resolved:
1: oust Malcolm from PM and potentially out of parliament as a sitting member
2: remove Julie Bishop as Deputy PM for past indiscretions (namley backing Malcolm & but Abbott over the years) and get he onto backbench (as she still can bring in money to the party)
3: Install a puppet that will do what the hard-right wants and of course is one of them
What they did not factor in are two main things:
1: Turnbull being a smart business operator
2: that Turnbull was aware of the scenario made to him by a mole within the hard-right who is now leaking all sorts of wonderful info to the media (guess someone is not a Abbott person after-all)
I mentioned at the start of the previous week to look to those who remain quiet in these situations.
The trigger point was not what was played out on TV (that is just the process happening) the real trigger point was Turnbull buying 23 (well 23 hours and 20 minutes) hours to install someone other than Dutton, that only happened once everyone had been flushed out (to many names to mention) but behind closed doors there is always someone listening, who that was? I don’t know but I do know it was the trigger point because the key was always to get Julie Bishop to run which would take votes away from Abbott and at the same time help who ever was Malcolm’s preferred option and we saw that with the way the votes:
Bishop ended up with 11 votes in the 1st round (I said 15, guess she lost some support that went to Morrison instead)
Anyway, the lesson here is there is no way forward for a long term strategy, they might be saying that right now but all they realistically have is 2 weeks to sell that they are united.
Hence a mid October election, which hurts Victoria but the Coalition were never gonna win Victoria, its now about saving NSW and as many they can in QLD.
