I agree with this - Abbott will narrowly beat Steggall in Warringah. Phillip Thompson takes Herbert for the Coalition, Susan Lamb narrowly holds in Longman for Labor while Melissa McIntosh returns Lindsay to the Coalition. Wentworth could go either way.
As you mentioned, Dobell will likely swing to the Coalition. This is my seat and both parties are promising to spend lots. I anticipate a big swing - Jilly Pilon is well-respected and a great candidate for the region. The Greens will improve in the Dobell primaries, possibly somewhere between 10-15%. On the flip side, the Central Coast’s other seat of Robertson will be just as crucial (1.1% swing) - I expect Lucy Wicks (Liberal) to hold.
I’m predicting Labor to win but I feel like The Greens may get a few seats as well.
Among the younger generation (myself included), there is concern about climate change and not enough action being taken by the big two.
Also quite like some of their policies and their ambition to help fix the NBN which is a massive deal for my sector of work.
Barring the possibility of something unprecedented between now and Saturday, I’d probably expect a Shorten Labor Government by a comfortable margin.
From a Sydney metro area perspective, the most interesting battles will probably be in Banks, Lindsay, Reid, Warringah and Wentworth.
If I was to guess, Labor will probably retain my local electorate (which I’m pretty sure @mvpmadsen is also a resident of) - perhaps by a slightly reduced margin but insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
From my observations, Federal Labor has been fairly stable over the past 4-5 years. The Coalition on the other hand…
I hope so. I am originally from Mayo. I know a lot of farmers have said over this election that they families would roll in their graves for not voting Liberals. However, since the last liberal candidate they felt like nothing was done for their community. Since Sharkie has come in heaps of new projects have been commissioned and the community have not been more happy. I just can’t see them voting against her again this election - especially since she only won the seat less than a year ago by a fair margin.
I am not sure to be honest. But I think they tried to get the most liberal person with a family background of liberals to try and win back the seat. It hasn’t worked.
I think Labor will win comfortably although not a landslide. Labor will blitz Victoria and will do much better in Qld than Sky News would like to think. NSW will likely be the best performing for the Coalition but I still think Abbott will lose his seat.
Is there something I don’t know about this electorate? Labor won quite comfortably in the last election. Are they not happy with the current rep there?
This one is going to be interesting. i don’t think its a straight out Liberal win there.
If the recent state election was anything to go by, I think the Federal Coalition will do considerably better in NSW than many are predicting.
But at the same time, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Federal Labor hold onto their usual safe seats in areas like Western Sydney, the Hunter & Illawarra.
One can only hope that will be the case…along with some of the other hard right MPs losing their seats.
Again, I probably should stress that I personally think both major parties have failed Australia over the past decade (similar deal with NSW state politics but that’s another thread). But this time around, the Labor party are probably the lesser of two evils overall IMO.
I will take a guess that it is the crap that is getting pushed out on WeChat rather than the Murdoch press. I don’t know Super_SCs background but I work with someone of Chinese descent who has parroted almost identical, false claims about Labor.
Dobell could go either way (similar to Robertson), as someone who is enrolled in the seat I sense a growing resentment toward Labor’s lack of progress particularly up North. Jilly Pilon is well-respected in the community and a good choice for the Liberal candidate. The Coalition have made a pledge to invest in road infrastructure, in particular around Tumbi Umbi and The Entrance Rd, as well as toward Wyong Hospital.
Labor will still hold both seats in the NT but can see them losing a few percentage points due to increasing frustration toward NT Labor.
