Federal Election 2019 - Predictions

#1

There’s been a lot of name calling and lots of negativity, so I thought I’d create this thread to have a bit of fun!
It would be great if the moderators could ensure that this thread is free from nasty, derogatory comments and purely predictions about results and the media coverage, for a bit of fun!

My predictions:

I am going out on a limb and saying Morrison will win. I’ll say govern in a minority or slight majority. I think the Coalition will win back Wentworth, Indi, Herbert and one that hasn’t been spoken about, Dobell. I’ll predict Abbott will retain his seat.

In my own safe Labor seat, the Labor Minister not from the area and now where to be seen, will be retained.

As for the media side - ABC will come in number one ratings wise, followed by (in order) Seven, Nine, Ten & SBS. I’ll also predict Antony Green will suffer technical difficulties, though not as bad as Ten. Meanwhile, Channel Seven will have a new election graphics package (here’s hoping!).

#2

Ok sorry I need to ask what you mean. Because you can’t govern if you have a ‘minority’. Unless you mean that they will be able to do deals with independents to gain majority? Which I don’t think will happen. They seem to have burnt a lot of bridges.

#3

obviously the user means by doing a deal with the Independents, similar to how Julia Gillard was in 2010 against Tony Abbott. Maybe Katter will support LNP

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#4

That’s why I am clarifying William. I am asking how they plan to do it…

#5

Or, like how the current government is a minority government relying on the support of independents to govern.

#6

Anyway, we have explained how a government can work, which is off topic. The topic is regarding people’s predictions, which I am genuinely interested in seeing…

#7

I am asking what independents are the liberals going to use to gain majority to govern? I would like to know. Which seats will work with them?

#8

labor and by a land slide its time for the idjit scomo to go :slight_smile:

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#9

it will be a close one but I had to say Liberals. The Labor Party is a shitheap right now. Bill shorten announced that there will ve a huge tax on electricity, bills, water, house prices. It would be a huge waste if Labor wins.

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Federal Politics
#10

Firstly, very nice of you to speak about the PM like that. Insightful & classy.

Secondly. It’s spelt ‘idiot’. So tell me again, who is the idiot?

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#11

Better still, practice what you preach…

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#12

He began name calling and called the PM an idiot, something I said I didn’t want in this thread. Why would I not reply?

#13

Good argument against compulsory voting here.

When did he announce this? Sounds an awful lot like the scare campaigns trotted out by the Murdoch press.

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#14
  • Use the report button
  • Ignore it

And don’t use the defence “he started it”. Presumably we’re grown ups here.

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#15

Who wins

  • Labor
  • Liberal

0 voters

#16

Labor by at least 8 seats in a majority. I think it could be bigger I think Victoria was I’ll disseminate the LNP

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#17

I’m really not sure who will win, one thing that is almost certain; there will be no landslide either way 🤷

#18

You forgot the options for the following:

  • Someone else
  • Nuclear annihilation wiping us off the map on election day
  • El Captian Cranky taking control

:rofl:

#19

Labor to gain the two new House of Reps seats - Fraser (Vic) and Bean (ACT) - with Port Adelaide (SA) abolished, that gives them a net gain of 1. Cooper (VIC; nee Batman) will be a closer ALP/Greens contest than we saw in the by-election thanks to the redistribution.

Libs to gain Indi (Vic) but lose Gilmore (NSW). Dunkley & Corangamite should fall towards Labor on a uniform swing; Kooyong will hold but like many of the safe Melbourne suburban seats there’ll be a decent size swing away from them. Chisholm and Higgins are seats to watch - the latter is a genuinely three-way contest that could get very close (as Prahran did in the Victorian sate election).

Warringah and Wentworth (NSW) could go either way I reckon. On a 2% swing you’d lose Banks and Robertson, and so assuming the crossbench doesn’t change, all up, Labor would be looking at an easy 78 seats already*. I’d project something in the way of a 10-15 seat majority.

*I’m also expecting the pendulum to remain relatively static in Queensland - this is an election that’ll be won and lost in the south and the west.

Briefly on the Senate: Too many right-wing minor/micro parties will eat away at PHON, and prevent UAP from gaining a decent footing in Queensland. My big call is that Hinch won’t retain his seat, with either a Labor, Green or Animal Justice candidate taking his place

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#20

As for my prediction, well I can’t see anything but a Labor win. Here in Victoria the Liberals are toast. Probably win Indi back but that’s about it. Can’t see them winning Dunkley, Corangamite or Chisholm, unpredictable green and independent preferences could play a part in Higgins, Flinders and Kooyong, Casey, La Trobe and Deakin also likely to come into play.

I’d imagine Libs likely to regain Wentworth and Mayo - maybe. Not sure Downer has been the best option for a candidate there.

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