New Zealand has always stated they are targeting elimination. Australia hasnāt. If you target elimination then lockdowns will occur. Like all of Scott Morrisonās decisions there has been no direction, no leadership and no clear messaging.
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Much rather than this uncontrolled spread like what would have happened had Victoria not done the 3 month lockdown. We would be facing thousands of deaths a month.
Bullet proof vaccines is the end game. That is probably a year off. The vaccine of today will just stabilise the chaos and guinea pig test the population. Then next year we re vaccinate.
Mid 2023 is my guess for the dying off phase.
Long road still ahead.
To be fair the entire country has been living almost normal for over 10 months now (with only some very minor speed bumps along the way). Iām sure most people there would be good to take a few days of lockdown if it keeps them in the great position theyāve been into.
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Nzās strategy and performance is the envy of the world, they donāt need to defend or explain anything.
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Thatās why Australiaās economy is doing better than every other western country at the moment 
Must be doing something right.
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No surprises there.
It means any New Zealanders that fly into Australia from Monday (February 15) will have to spend a fortnight in hotel quarantine.
The new rule will remain in place for the next three days before the situation is reassessed.
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VICās latest numbers -
Fuck me, itās been 11 months and you still donāt seem to get this?
Itās not the current presenting numbers thatās the worry, itās the potential exposure numbers that they may have unwittingly given the virus to.
NZ has had other community cases pop up but they have been easily connected to the border/managed quarantine and contained - with no widespread travel or exposure events, this āclusterā is as yet, not connected to MIQ and has the UK strain. Thatās why NZ has gone into lockdown.
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I fucking get it and it is ridiculous the mental health impact, the economic impact is far too great to lockdown over an absurdly low number of cases.
At this level management of the cases should be achievable. Track, trace and fucking isolate - Victoria demonstrated they can do it with Blackrock, NSW have demonstrated it with EVERY.SINGLE.OUTBREAK yet we have places locking down over single digits and a fear of a āmutant strainā which its level of infectivity is debatable.
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Yes but the main areas of concern have the wool wrapped around them now. Brunetti at the Melbourne Airport, the exposure site which appears to be the main driver behind the lockdown, has had none of the close contacts (12 other workers) test positive nor any of the significant proportion of customers that have been tested either. The second main exposure site was a private function, and the only positives in the entire state in the last few days are a small handful that attended this function. Weāve otherwise had 0 cases at any exposure sites.
The outstanding Victorian Government tracking and tracing which weāve been able to rely on in recent months is what has kept this cluster much smaller so far than even the Black Rock cluster over Christmas and New Years. Iām not completely opposed to the Lockdown at all but today Iād like to hear a clear reason as to why it needs to continue. Iām not seeing that itās had any impact on cases or is really going too on the numbers.
Of course health comes first but you need to weigh the risk with the benefit and I feel that risk has reduced 10 fold over the weekend. This short stint has had a massive blow to the Victorian econonmy on one of the busiest weekends of the year (Aus Open, Chinese New Year and Valentines Day) so every day further is impacting businesses that are already just trying to get back on their feet from the last lockdown.
My post was from a NZ perspective about the latest lockdown. They canāt manage because thereās too much unknown. Itās the lockdown which gives them the time to do that. The infected family had travelled out of the region and werenāt scanning in either. Every other minor outbreak in NZ recently has been traceable, this hasnāt. Use capitals and full stops as much as you want but there is a reason to the process NZ has undertaken and thereās been little pushback on this latest lockdown.
Oh, Iām more talking from a NZ perspective. Living in Auckland. The lockdown and reasoning for it was clearly laid out last night.
Agree with some of your points around Melbourne but I havenāt been following this outbreak as closely as others.
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Oh right. Yeah I would doubt that there are many that have an issue with the NZ lockdown. As Iāve mentioned previously the fact that theyāve lived a relatively normal life for a good 10 or so months, Iām sure most people can handle a few days to be sure they get back to that place again.
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The situation and rationale in Victorian and NZ situations are very similar, I thought Dan Andrews communicated it all pretty well on friday. He half expected that it would be a false alarm but by the time they knew for sure it could be too late. Apart from Sky news and Ryaneco I think Victorians mostly understand and have the patience for it.
I for one hope that the govt would be brave enough to do a 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th lockdown if its what has to be done to avoid a 3rd wave.
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On people who recently arrived from NZ:
Thatās nonsense. Look at the devastation, both the huge numbers of deaths around the world, and the damage to the economies where itās running rampant.
Vic premier Dan Andrews is right that with the vaccine coming, itās worth being cautious, stopping the spread, rather than wasting all the sacrifices people have had to make during 2020.
I think itāll depend on how it works in the real world. If everyone is vaccinated, COVID-19 becomes like the seasonal flu, and that didnāt stop travel.
But I wouldnāt worry yet. There has been some evidence that the vaccines are reducing, even if not eliminating, transmission.
Youāve got it backwards: The reason case numbers are low is because the state governments are following the expertsā advice, imposing restrictions before the virus gets out of hand.
Once itās controlled, every contact is quarantined, then life for everyone else returns to normal.
Not dismissing the mental health impact, but having loved ones dying (which is happening in large numbers around the world) is of course also bad for mental wellbeing.
(Right now) weāre only talking about 5 days here.
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People in hotel quarantine in Queensland will no longer be able to use a nebuliser to treat asthma or other lung conditions following the outbreak in Melbourne.
Sky News strikes again. I didnāt realise it was a competition 
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Interesting that according to the NYT vaccine tracker 3 months into the vaccine rollout 3 countries that are the furthest advanced are Israel (43% population vaccinated), Seychelles (39%), and Bahrain (14%).
All 3 are among the worst in the world at the moment with 7 day average daily cases of covid. Clearly its going to take a very large proportion of any population to be vaccinated before the vaccine has any impact at all, let alone suppress the pandemic to a point where things can go back to normal. Australia, which isnāt even at the staring line, has a very long road ahead.
The Government is releasing 80,000 doses of the vaccine next week, with 50,000 going to states and territories to vaccinate frontline quarantine and health workers, and 30,000 to aged care and disability care residents and workers.
Mr Hunt said the doses would be split up among the states based on their populations, and more information would be released later this week.
Earlier, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the Gold Coast University Hospital would be the stateās first vaccine hub, and would receive vials of the Pfizer vaccine next week. After the rollout is trialled at the Gold Coast the vaccine will be sent to hubs in Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, Cairns and Townsville.