COVID-19: Discussion of Impact 😷

In one case, a couple moving from Tasmania to Canberra got off the ferry in Melbourne at dawn on Friday and drove to the border. They say they learnt that their permit was no longer valid in an email they received 20 minutes before reaching the checkpoint. People arriving at the border on Friday say even the NSW police weren’t clear on the situation.

And official advice was contradictory. Travellers say they were being told by Service NSW that the old permits were still valid when the police were telling them they weren’t.

But the wider question is: was consideration given to the consequences on the border, not just for ACT citizens but for those of NSW?

…the negotiations do not address the problem of NSW residents stuck on the wrong side of the border.

One farmer said he had a property in the Crookwell area on the Southern Tablelands of NSW, and he had 3000 sheep starting to lamb.

There are some very angry people on the border.

“They just don’t give a stuff about people,” is typical of the comments passed on to this reporter.

Some of the victims are staying in cars because they can’t afford a room at a motel. They will get angrier.

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No new cases in Queensland with record testing. Trial underway to allow testing at pharmacies.

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18 cases in NSW. A job well done. So far.

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Daniel Andrews has highlighted an increasingly number of COVID-19 cases in Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.

“They’re very low numbers, but coming off such a low base, any additional cases are of concern to us,” he said.

Mr Andrews asked all Melburnians to avoid travelling to regional areas.

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The case for a scaled up elimination strategy for a country any larger than NZ really starts to fall apart if an outbreak can be started via packaging surfaces from freight arrivals.

Elimination was always going to be difficult against a virus we have no intel on

Freight is important to NZ given its remote location. If every piece of freight has to be checked for COVID-19 it will lead to long delays in delivery, especially imported food.

IIRC the SARS-CoV-2 (the COVID-19 virus) on a surface will die after a few days, so almost all freight will be fine, and for the more freshly shipped products (e.g. fresh produce), wipe it down or or wash it.

It appears the risk from freight is exaggerated and suggestions that freight has been transmitting SARS-CoV-2 is just a guess.

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If all goes to plan…no gyms, pubs, cafes for another 3 months. I would hazard a guess and say borders won’t open up until stage 1. This will obviously be Jan or Feb of 21. Not great news for the airlines who are burning $200m a month. And that’s if everything goes to plan.

Victoria’s Treasury is forecasting the state will move from stage four to stage three restrictions in mid-September.

It then predicts the state will move stage 2 restrictions in December.

Also, I wonder if Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo will soon join Stage 4. Was concerns raised today around those three places today.

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What does Treasury have to do with health advice? Dan didn’t want to comment much on that today saying that decisions will be made on data. I think the timeframes are extreme to say that it will be 4 months before some of those settings will function.

You can’t tell me that people wont be able to see their families, friends or loved ones until December. That would be 6 months. That is not going to happen. People will lose it. People will rebel and start breaking rules. There’s no motivation to “do the right thing” if it’s going to be that long.

I think on the other side the stage approach will be different. Settings and workplaces that had high numbers will stay closed longer but settings that havn’t and are deemed safer should open sooner. Hopefully in a few weeks the level of community transmission is very low so it’s safe to start maybe with allowing 2 visitors to homes.

They shouldnt be having much, but they will be modelling financial performance projections based on the information the health department is releasing. The backout numbers appear to be consistent with what national cabinet established.

Well Dan Andrews keeps saying that modelling was showing that if we stayed in Stage 3 we’d be there until Christmas, so stage 4 was needed to go harder faster so we could open up quicker. The CHO also says it’s the appropriate time to drive numbers down. So the treasury modelling doesn’t really match to that. There is zero chance people are going to live with stage 3 restrictions till December. That would be 6 months.

The treasury modelling appears to be based on the move to Stage 4 - Coronavirus Victoria: Treasury forecasts relaxing restrictions mid-September

They’re also modelling based on a prediction of going 3 → 2 in the December Quarter - thats a Oct/Nov/Dec horizon

Its unlikely to be a choice though

Well that could mean stage 2 by start of October then… But I still think this sort of modelling should be taken with a grain of salt to what actually happens (like Dan said today). If people do the right thing and numbers drop we need to be given a little back. The lockdowns have completely failed in my eyes if it means 6 months apart from our loved ones (which should not be a long term reality if stage 4 works as it should and has in other countries).

Anyway this lockdown is hard. So many people I know are struggling mentally and are clinging onto the hope that if we do things right for a few more weeks, then things will start getting better. So I’m going to cling onto that too.

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On some surfaces yes, on others, no.

It lasts hours apparently on paper and cardboard, but can last some time longer on other surfaces. Refrigeration may also make it last longer. Full research is still on-going.

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Good news for ACT residents stranded in Victoria, they can now drive through NSW to return home in the next five days.

NSW health authorities also confirmed residents of the Australian Capital Territory were permitted to drive through NSW to return home, as long as they completed the journey within the next five days.

Drivers have been ordered not to stop for refuelling during the trip in NSW, which can only take place between the hours of 9:00am and 3:00pm and until August 17.

After arriving in the ACT, re-entry to NSW will not be permitted for 14 days.

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While they can’t stop for fuel, they will be able to have a rest off the highway at a spot near Gundagai.

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McDonalds at South Gundagai is apparently the only place they can stop.

I suppose they don’t want to risk ‘The Dog’ getting struck with COVID-19.

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