Very interesting update on ABC radio at 11:30 - confirmed the Cat 1 classification. Close to hitting the islands and has increased speed compared to earlier today. Strong wind have now reach Brisbane suburbs.
A whole bunch of south-east suburbs just lost power around Capalaba - now almost 200,000 without power. Lots of fluctuations here as well.
Would you like us to send some pics via carrier pigeons 
In all seriousness hope your doing alright despite the situation, and do stay safe
Now thatâs a mail-order service 7 should start! 
The BOM has just confirmed to ABC Radio Brisbane that Cyclone Alfred is now downgraded to a tropical low.
Continuing in here to avoid pushing the coverage thread off topic
I agree - the backlash the BOM and the Government wouldâve copped if they didnât do the right thing and warn people that there was a serious risk would be bigger than any backlash because it wasnât as bad as predicted. And even there, there are still derbies flying around the place, heavy rain forecasted, and a large portion of place in SEQ without power.
As soon as Alfred did that first loop and slowed down, delaying the crossing from Thursday night to Saturday morning, that was when the risk of a significant category 2 impact decreased.
If Alfred had kept to original predictions and kept rolling through to the coast as a Cat 2 on Thursday, things would have been very bad across Brisbane and GC with winds of 150+ km/h.
As soon as he started to slow down and lose energy, things started looking a lot safer for the coast, albeit still a bit dicey in some areas.
People should be thankful that Alfred slowed down and weakened on approach, because the original scenario of a Thursday night crossings would have been much more devastating.
The stalling of Alfred was a blessing for those areas that were at risk from wind and storm surges, particularly in SEQ- it took a fair bit of juice out of it in terms of wind speed.
I wouldnât say flood-risk areas of SEQ or NE NSW are out of the woods just yet though- the trade-off of Alfred stalling means that the heavy rainfall has lingered for a day or two longer than it might have otherwise (and looking at the radar there may yet be more to rain to come).
If anyone had been reading the BoM Technical Bulletins or the US JTWC advisories, from about Thursday they had all models in agreement that Alfred would weaken significantly before landfall, which is indeed what happened. Meanwhile most media continued to broadcast the worst case scenario that it could intensify to a Cat 3 before landfall, without really mentioning this was an extremely unlikely possibility.
I do understand the need to get people to comply and prepare and take it seriously, but I worry that next time, if there is one, some people wonât be as quick to believe the warnings and comply again.
Better to have precautions every time than say oops, we should have warned people more after property damage and deaths.
There has got to be some kind of retrospective here though.
Kids have been out of school since Thursday. Shopping centres have closed. People have stopped work and those that are casuals or self-employed will lose money.
Thatâs a whole lot of lost productivity.
Sure, be prepared. Be vigilint, stay indoors when/if the cyclone hits. But lining up for 5 hours for sandbags on wednesday when you could have been at work, for the majority of people, was unnecessary. It was unecessary then and has proven to be unnecessary today.
There was a guest on Sunrise just before talking about eating your perishables first so that you have enough food to survive in the coming days.
Now that, is ridiculous. The 10-window live crosses on 9 reporting on power outages and a few fallen trees is ridiculous.
All things considered, thereâs alot to learnings from this. âBetter to be safe than sorryâ doesnât cut it for me.
I have friends who were due to fly out to London on Thursday, and now have to wait until Sunday at the earliest. They have jobs to get back to. Thatâs a significant impact on peoples lives and livelihoods. The airport could have remained open. In the northern hemisphere airports continue to operate in blizzards. In Brisbane, it closes 2 days prior to a what turned in to a storm before it hit the coast.
Questions should rightfully be asked.
Donât recall hearing a single report claiming this, but happen to be shown otherwise.
Iâve not seen anything about it being a Cat 3 proclaimed anywhere either.
Hindsight is always 20/20 however.
Itâs easy to look back now and say there was no need to do this or that but things were looking very different 48-72 hours ago based on the information available at the time.
I would partially agree though that questions could be asked of whether there could have been a partial restoration of some services like public transport and the airport for (at first) Thursday and then Friday once it was clear that the system was passing through significantly later than expected and that there was now an extended low-risk window prior to landfall.
This is the closest I can find- there was speculation on Wednesday that it âmightâ have intensified to a Cat 3.
Some folks you just canât pleaseâŚ
Disagree entirely.
On Wednesday, Alfred was predicted to barrel in to the coast as a strong Cat 2 on Thursday night with winds of 150+ km/h across Brisbane and Gold Coast areas.
Prepping on Wednesday was completely warranted with those forecasts.
By Thursday, Alfred slowed down and the crossing was pushed back and it was clear it was going to weaken by that time
But you cannot tell me that everyone who got sandbags needed them. If everyone was sensible then only those in at risk areas could have gone in and got sandbags in a relatively orderly fashion.
People have been out and about and/or bored out of their mind thursday and friday, when they could have been working or at school.
Woolworths is closed while people are sliding down the hill on their boards.
You can be on high alert without closing a city down.
Pleased that the outcome wasnât as bad as expected for the Subtropical Empire, though the amount of power loss isnât to be sneezed at.
This cyclone was extremely difficult to predict with any authority; BOM did as well as could be expected. Anthony Cornelius provided excellent analysis. Of course, there was fearmongering from the usual quarters.
There may be an element of âboy cried wolfâ with the next severe weather event in SEQ. The BOM took a more comprehensive approach to severe weather after the 1999 Sydney hailstorm, which wasnât warned for in advance despite going supercellular off Wollongong.
Remember that all weather systems are chaotic events, and one slight tweak in an input can change the outcome dramatically.
A caregory 2 cyclone is different to a blizzard. Airports close all the time, due to storm activity. Even if ir had been downgraded earlier, chances are the airport would have closed.
Iâm not concerned with closing the airport or the city when the storm system passes.
But closing the airport and the city 2 days early, and then staying closed, is not ideal, regardless of the category (unless it was on the higher end of the scaleâŚ).
It wasnât two days early at the time though. The day/ time of impact kept changing every few hours.