A large bushfire has indeed broken out in western VIC unfortunately, in the southern Grampians. It must have been ignited by a dry thunderstorm with the cold front. There was a huge plume of smoke reaching almost to the SA border yesterday afternoon (winds were SE’ly). More high heat is expected over the coming days going off the Horsham forecast, so this one could be a ‘campaign fire’, lasting for weeks or even months. You can’t really expect much rain in this area either in summer.
I think we could be in the same position in SE NSW if things don’t turn around soon. We had some useful rain at the start of December but we racked up a huge rainfall deficit in spring, and now we’re back into very dry conditions again. Rolling heatwaves with brief cooler spells in between look to be the order of things for the rest of the month, and no meaningful rain is likely. Longer term outlooks have a wet signal for eastern NSW in January as the SAM returns to neutral; those hot SSTs in the Tasman are likely to boost rain and storms if the atmosphere plays ball. I think we may be waiting until monsoon onset in the north for that to happen, though.
Yesterday has been very hot in Perth, hitting a maximum of 43.4 degrees, third hottest December day on Record. However, Perth will be forecasted to hit a top of 30 degrees today, before cooling down to a maximum of 24 degrees on Christmas Day tomorrow.
The gorgeous township of Halls Gap, the beating heart of the iconic Grampians, now in the firing line (after the CFA fought all week to protect it), VicEmergency just issuing a “too late to leave” Emergency Warning Thoughts with all affected tonight! The cool change has moved through Victoria.
ABC News might have the latest tonight, but I guess breakfast TV will give us the aftermath in the morning, hoping for the best outcome.
The larger Air support being the Dash 8 and C130 water bombers remained grounded at Avalon today due to the turbulent gusty conditions which even tests your average commercial pilot let alone formation flying.
Hopefully they will be back in the air tomorrow. Conditions pretty ordinary in the early hours but by lunchtime tomorrow should be all systems go again.
Lightning overnight in some places and now strong winds today may see NSW in the spotlight for bushfires today, hopefully not. Penrith is going for 41C today. We already have strong winds in Bungendore; it’s a matter of whether they mix down to the Sydney Basin. At least we had a sprinkle of rain overnight which wasn’t in the forecast.
Two bit change. The storms marked a trough passage from NNW to WNW winds, bringing a slightly cooler airmass, but anything westerly is hot this time of year in NSW. Temps may ‘only’ reach the mid to high 30s though- BOM have been overcooking the heat recently.
The true cooler change will arrive as a southerly later this afternoon or evening. Meanwhile in Melbourne, sweaters all round at the cricket.
Canberra is piggy in the middle as is usual for a west wind setup with 28-30C forecast. Some would say in the goldilocks zone but I’d rather Melbourne’s weather (at least we get that tonight). Some smoke/dust drifting in at high levels at the moment as well, hopefully it’s less thick than last Sunday.
Thoughts with all affected tonight! The cool change has moved through Victoria.