I woke up feeling a bit chilly with just a sheet on the bed … lol …temperature was forecast to be 18 deg and it’s around 15.5 deg this morning ! Hasn’t dropped below 20 deg consistently probably since October.
I think I’m ditching the BOM forecasts for Weather.com (Weather Channel IBM) as it seems to be spot on with the forecasts . That site mentions showers well before the BOM too.
I’ve noticed that too. I use The Weather Channel widget on my phone and have the BOM Weather app below but I rarely use the app now since I’ve found the widget to be more up to date.
An even better site is Meteologix or Weather.us (same site).
You get the spaghetti plots for each model run which makes for a more accurate forecast overall. Just remember to add a bit for max and take off a bit for min, unless excessively cloudy.
Example temp forecast:
https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/2173248-bungendore/xltrend/euro
You get rainfall and wind as well, by clicking on the appropriate tab.
The BOM Meteye forecasts are only as good as their grid square. If you have varying terrain within the grid square- as is the case on the ranges of NSW- then forecasts can be way off. For Canberra the ‘Canberra Central’ forecast is usually more accurate than the Canberra (Airport) forecast which is reported in the media.
Minimum temperatures are extremely difficult to forecast with any accuracy here, as the presence (or absence) of wind and cloud cover dictate the final value. The spaghetti plots are useful here. It fell to freezing here last night as the wind calmed down just enough before sunrise (it was still 7C after midnight).
I like Meteologix, found it last year … Windy.com is ok too but they have made it a paid subscription for looking further ahead.
Finally some proper autumn weather in Brisbane .Summer went on for far too long as always
Cyclone Ilsa has officially formed off the Western Australia coast. Current it is likely to make impact between Port Hedland and Broome sometime overnight Thursday or Friday morning as a Category 4 system. It’s likely to be the strongest cyclone to impact that area in a decade.
Windy also only gives temps in three hourly increments (non paid) whereas Meteologix does it in 1 hr increments out to three days. Exact temperature forecasts aren’t that accurate beyond three days anyhow, best to look at the spaghetti plots and general forecasts for 3-7 days.
BSCH GFS is another one I look at, mainly for storm potential and wind direction. Getting a good handle on the wind direction can be crucial in determining temps as well, the onset of a seabreeze is the obvious one. Even here which is well inland I know that temperatures are likely to spike beyond the forecast maximum in light southerly winds as there is a slight Foehn effect from the nearby ranges, and that’s exactly what occurred today. Meteologix did predict this with a one hourly maximum of 18C; you can usually add between 1-2C to this for the absolute max (which was around 19.5C).
(BSCH - Stormcast : GFS Forecast for Australia)
The Canberra Central forecast max was 19 and I slightly exceeded that; usually it’s Canberra -1 for here. They did have 20 on Sunday night for today though…often a (slightly) earlier forecast can be the correct one. Canberra itself was 20.1.
If it sticks to that course that’s incredibly good luck to essentially land smack in the middle of two major population centres without impacting either with much severity.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is now a Category 5 system. BoM says 315 km/hr could impact areas near Pardoo Roadhouse and De Grey late Thursday night or early Friday morning, before tracking inland.
Authorities say it could end up being the most powerful cyclone to make landfall on the WA coast.
A 560km stretch of the Great Northern Highway connecting Broome and Port Hedland has been closed.
Looks like there is a cold snap coming over the weekend for the south east of the country.
Canberra (where i am right now) has been 15-16 degrees this week but is forecast to only hit 10 on Sunday. And it’s not even winter yet! Similar drops in VIC and TAS.
Thankfully I should be back in Newcastle by then… where it will be a much milder 21 degrees.
We had rain on and off today in Mornington.
There were a constant light showers in Canberra this morning and early afternoon.
The next couple of days are forecast to be sunny though 
Canberra is usually sunny but the last couple of years have been much wetter than normal. I’m expecting it will turn much drier as El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole affect our weather in the second half of the year. It will probably be dry everywhere but Canberra will be hit hard, as we rely almost solely on systems from the NW to get rain (these are non-existent in a positive IOD).
The deniers have been peddling that nonsense for decades now. Their arguments have a grain of truth; some Bureau stations are no longer fit for purpose due to too much urban warming (I’m looking at you, Sydney Observatory Hill and Sydney Airport).
But that’s as far as it goes. The majority of the BOM weather stations aren’t affected by urban warming. Unfortunately, it’s in the cities where this occurs by definition, and most Australians live in urban areas.
Chemtrails are just psuedoscientific garbage, of course- along with crop circles and Bigfoot.
Looks like we are headed for an El Niño (drier conditions)
I’m anticipating an extremely dry winter and spring here with severe frosts. This might be the winter we break -10, assuming there’s sufficient cold air around. It’s not only El Niño; a dry (positive) phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast.
Summer will be a lot hotter than the last few years. From a masochistic point of view it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. Jan 2019 is a very high water mark though with its average maximum of 34.5C or so at Canberra Airport.
No more fucking floods for a while. Sick of having to get out of my apartment everytime we get heavy rainfall.
