Australian Postal Survey on Marriage Law

What exactly happened on 2GB?

The SMH is implying that 2GB broadcast Macklemore’s performance, but substituted Same Love with Ray’s stupid parody act - which would clearly be an act of censorship if true.

If Ray’s objection really was for it being an American performing and not the pro same-sex marriage theme of the song, then surely they would have just completely cut Macklemore’s performance?

Or did 2GB not broadcast the pre-game entertainment at all?

Similarly, what happened on the ABC Grandstand broadcast? Did they broadcast the pre-game entertainment?

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That’s exactly what they are saying and the Fox Sports story calls it censorship.

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We have to on every other issue.

I don’t quite understand the fuss over the song. I watched his performance. He sang this song. He sang 3 others. The set ended. The game started. There were no rainbow flags, no “YES” banners, no speeches or any sort of link between the song and any sort of campaign. From what I can recall there was zero from the commentators on it. To anyone not aware of last week’s controversy you would not have thought anything of the performance.

I just think it was such a mountain made out of nothing, and now to think that the new #1 “No” cheerleader Tony Abbott’s preference for performer was an openly gay man who has a husband is just a joke.

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That’s the thing about what the media was making it out to be. It sounded as if it was going to be a massive gay themed extravaganza, when in reality the controversial song was less than a quarter of the performance and was bookended by two other songs. Overall a very minor part of the proceedings.

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As usual, the politicians speaking out against it just drew more attention to it and just made more people more interested in seeing it, so it worked against their cause.

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If Abbott had not created such a controversy I don’t think as many Australians would have watched the pre-game entertainment (1.3 million viewers).

I even doubt that many people would have understood that the song was about same-sex marriage.

Instead Tony ramped up the publicity. Everyone watched. It looked like fun.

I think Abbott totally misjudged this political move. The Macklemore controversy only helped the “yes” campaigners.

I also find it interesting that the “no” campaign don’t actually argue against same-sex marriage. They argue about boys wearing dresses or parents “losing their rights” which I assume means that the government is planning to take children away from straight parents.I think the “no” campaign’s biggest mistake is their serious ads with a real downbeat feel about them. They need the people on their ads to crack a smile every now and then - or at least have couple of caps of Xanax and relax.

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And then Abbott went on radio yesterday.

He said he hadn’t listened to much music made after 1975, except The Traveling Wilburys and Savage Garden.

Savage Garden were an Australian '90s pop duo, with Daniel Jones playing the instruments and Darren Hayes the vocalist.

Hayes made headlines in 2006 when he entered a civil partnership with his British boyfriend Richard Cullen. The couple later married in California where same-sex marriage was legal.

How ironic. Then Darren Hayes tweeted back:

https://twitter.com/darrenhayes/status/914675393260535808

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Report:

ABS estimates 57.5% of ballot papers returned

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Govt describes as “strong early turn-out” and vindication for survey; welcomed by both yes and no sides. No campaigns says 1 in 2 haven’t made up mind yet so need to continue discussion.

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Weird that the poll yesterday suggested ~70% of people had returned their ballot. So either some people lied to the pollsters or Australia Post fucked up big time.

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That’s why polls shouldn’t be trusted any more. People are lying to manipulate the outcomes.

When was the poll run, and how long is it taking AusPost to deliver them to the ABS?

AusPost has slowed down their delivery timeframes; perhaps these surveys are using cheap & slow postage (it’s not like it’s urgent), so I wouldn’t be surprised if we add in a long weekend, it could be a week between surveys dropped in a post box & them getting back to the ABS.

Poll was run last week, I got a call Thursday night for the Reachtel one.

Data Compiling takes a week??

I often get a call every three or four weeks from Reachtel on a Thursday night and last week this was one of the questions asked. It’s all automated so I guess wouldn’t take long for a computer to compile all the results.

From memory the questions were about preferred PM, if an election were held today who would you vote for, if undecided which side do you have a leaning to, how likely are you to vote in the SSM survey, how would you vote in the SSM survey and have you sent it in yet.

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No offence to you, but I’d question the randomness of such polls if you get called so often. I can’t remember the last time I got polled for something, mind you, haven’t had the land line plugged in for the last two years but I’d think 6 years plus and they weren’t very often at all.

Yeah, I’m surprised at the frequency, it’s only been the last 6 months or so and tends to be a Thursday night but with different questions, usually the standard political ones though. They call my mobile and I think from memory the first one I did may have been with a person who did ask if I’d like to go on a list to get more but that was quite a while ago and then I didn’t get many but the last few months have had more.

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All the envelopes have the custom ‘priority’ label with QR code on them, so it wouldn’t be that.

It’s been ten days since the last envelopes sent should have been received by people at their homes. I’d imagine most people would return their envelopes as soon as possible after they’ve received them.

Also remember that the AFL Grand Final Eve was a public holiday in Victoria.

I don’t think 20% of ballots are in transit. Either the ABS has underestimated to encourage people to send in their envelopes, or ReachTel has done something wrong in their statistical analysis or manipulated it somehow.

Yes, I think it’s wise to treat all of these polls with a grain of salt. People from both sides will try and manipulate them to produce whatever result they want to run with some sort of narrative.

Monday was a public holiday in NSW & ACT too (& possibly elsewhere), so there’s probably some delay because of that.

ABS may not be the fastest at processing the returned forms either. Remember they’re not the AEC, they don’t do elections where people expect an immediate result, it’s years in-between each Census…

And I agree polls can easily have sampling errors, so always have caution about how accurate any one of them can be.

PS:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yes-vote-unbeatable-unless-a-lot-of-people-are-straight-out-lying-says-pollster-20171004-gytxsg.html

Respected pollster John Stirton has crunched the numbers based on published polls and concluded that with a majority of votes already cast, the race appears to be all but decided.

…Stirton said public support for marriage equality when all polls are combined - and excluding “did not know” - was running at above 65 per cent. By contrast, support for the “no” case was running at below 35 per cent.

Hopefully the analysis is correct, and the campaigns will accept reality & let their ads disappear from the airwaves in the next week. I guess it’ll depend on how much money they still have to spend & what future ad airtime has already been purchased.

I read on Facebook that scrutineers are reporting somewhere in the realm of 75% yes vote. I wasn’t aware that they were counting progressively as the mail arrives though, so I’m not sure if this is true.