Post your predictions here for the 2022 Federal Election, to be held on May 21.
Labor… Just!
Labor 70
Coalition 70
Independents 11
It will be close and a hung parliament. Both parties will have to negotiate with the Independents to form minority govt which wouldn’t last a full term. Expect a snap poll in 2.5 months time
Who will win?
- Liberal
- Labor
0 voters
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I think Labor will pickup
-Swan
-Pearce
-Hasluck
-Flynn
-Boothby
-Chisholm
Libs
-Dobell
-Eden
-Maq
-Lyons
-Indi
-Gilmore
Corangamite (Geelong) is a going to be a tight one, LNP have put up the mayor of Geelong as a candidate.
I don’t see a lot of Labor movement in QLD aside from Flynn. No chance they will get Leichhardt. When Warren retires then possibly.
Scomo needs to make gains in NSW to offset problems over in WA. If he can do that, and get Corangamite and Dunkley in Victoria, he will probably win the election. Those two seats in Vic are super important to get back from Labor.
I’m predicting non big 3 parties to pick up 5-10 senate seats, including at least 3 for (shudder) Clive.
The way the Senate works plays in very well to the 10-20% of the population that has been against such things as vaccination mandates.
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What are your thoughts around Sturt? I have a feeling they may pick up Sturt.
Higgins will definitely go to Greens
Does anyone see any movement to Liberals in W.A this federal election? I mean being it they have been destroyed at the last state election, I can’t see any Liberals winning back seats. What would be the ones to watch out for for my state?
A (well) hung parliament.
Recent opinion poll within the electorate did have the local LNP member ahead. LNP don’t appear to be on the nose as much, compared to say in Boothby, where the LNP will be destroyed.
Does anyone see any movement to Liberals in W.A this federal election? I mean being it they have been destroyed at the last state election, I can’t see any Liberals winning back seats. What would be the ones to watch out for for my state?
Plan for the worst in Perth and hope for the best. Outside of Perth unlikely to see anything change hands. Swan, Pearce, Hasluck will go to Labor. You will note McGowan isn’t as popular outside of Perth compared to the metro area.
The recent poll has it swinging towards labor though. I think this one is really in play as well.
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You could be right, I would expect the newly installed Premier to be very active in that electorate very soon.
Labor 72 Seats
Liberals 69 Seats
Independents 6 Seats
Greens 4 Seats
UAP/PHON Absolutely Nothing
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Lets fucking hope. Racist pigs.
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That would be huge. I think greens will only get one more seat and make it 2 seats all up. Which seats do you think they will pick up?
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I am not sure what seat they may pick up.
The reasoning behind it is of course situlations involving Climate Change since the last election. Especially with the Fires and Floods.
Well if you think they will get 4 seats that means they need to pick up 3. They should take Higgins. They could take Macnamara where they did make significant gains in the last election (although Josh Burns is quite popular). But I can’t think of another they will take
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I’m not convinced the Libs won’t win this. Being 53-47 behind in the Newspoll this early on is good news for the Coalition, the electorate always skews conservative before an election.
Considering how wrong the polls were in 2019, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re already at 50-50 or if the government is already ahead by a nose.
The thing that strikes me is the 37 primary vote for Labor, can’t see them winning in their own right if that is replicated knowing The Greens now have their own agenda which doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll give Labor preferences.
Gut feel is there’ll be no change around Central Queensland. Labor may get closer in Capricornia with One Nation’s candidate nowhere near as high profile as whom they had in 2019 (Rothery, ex-footballer), but Robertson (Labor candidate, same as 2019) strikes me in radio ads as having the inspirational qualities of an dying tree branch and has next to no profile in Rockhampton where the bulk of the voters are and where Landry is seemingly popular. Combined with the Green vote basically non-existent (5% at best at recent elections) it will be an LNP retain.
Flynn is the interesting one, will voters be more in tune with the state member for Callide (Boyce, LNP) or the mayor of Gladstone (Burnett, ALP)? Over 8% is a big margin to overcome particularly when I’m not convinced about the swings being uniform across states let alone nationally (not too many I know have ever been contacted about polls, leading me to assume most of those in Qld at least are SEQ based) but perhaps O’Dowd is more popular than I think. Gut feel is that this will be a marginal LNP retain.
Most other seats in Qld will largely depend on where the ONP vote, so high in 2019, will go in 2022 given that most of their resources will likely be spent on keeping Pauline in the Senate (which is the race to watch with so many high profile characters chasing what amounts to be one spot assuming the majors get 2 each and the Greens the 5th). I’ll also be keen to see if inner city Brisbane has a strong Green “protest” vote given that unlike NSW and Vic there doesn’t seem to be at this stage strong independent candidates looking to shake things up. Of course Crazy Bob Katter will stick around as one of the cross-benchers.
Also interested to see what happens in Lingiari. Personality politics plays a bigger role there than in most other seats (much different issues at play compared to national focus with the high indigenous population, and their ballot papers generally still have to my knowledge pictures of the candidates on it), and with Warren Snowdon calling it a day this is probably a seat the ALP can’t take for granted even if the CLP are in confusion mode.
Having been in Canberra as well over the last couple of days, the posters are already up mainly focusing on the Senate race. Signs for both high profile independents David Pocock (the ex-Wallaby) and Kim Rubenstein are already up. Not sure if it will mean too much unless the Liberal vote falls so far below a quota that they won’t pick up enough preferences from whomever to get them back over the line.
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I absolutely want to see a Labor government after the election, but I have a terrible feeling that the coalition will win it again, but only just.
I think the fact that Albanese is an unknown to many will, unfortunately, direct a lot of peoples votes and preferences to the LNP. “Better the devil you know” kind of mentality.
I hope i’m wrong…
The 53/47 Newspoll this morning cemented my thinking. The polling margin of error last election was around 3%. If that’s replicated, we’re already at 50/50 right there.
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