2022 Federal Election Predictions

I’ll predict, and hope, Kooyong goes independent and josh frydenberg is this elections’ Tony Abbott. If so many people voted green last time to come within striking distance of a win, a more moderate independent should take it. Also there were a lot of students that moved to hawthorn and retirees that moved to the country during the pandemic.

Also JoFrys YouTube ads are bloody annoying.

1 Like

Once again federal Labor seems to be going soft on advertising in WA, they should be reminding the electorate every single day of the Coalitions support of Palmer’s high court challenge relating to the state border closure amongst other actions made by the federal government against WA in 2020-2021. Zero observed so far.

I think they’ll pick up Pearce but not convinced with Swan and Hasluck - Labor couldn’t pickup Swan even after the retiring member Steve Irons didn’t even live in the electorate, let alone WA for almost an entire term!

1 Like

I think the Greens are a good chance for Macnamara and Richmond. Labor will win, but not sure if they will have to form minority Govt. Depends on how many NSW seats they can hold.

So what do people do in the lead up to the election? How do you decide where your vote goes?

Me personally I would class myself as a swing voter. I start by using a voting questionnaire to see where my views line. Such as the voting compass on ABC. I then email all the candidates in my local area with three questions. If I don’t get a response I refuse to vote for that party.

Personally I believe if I don’t get a response they don’t care about the area and are just being a number.

But I want to know what others do?

Don’t forget how important your vote is. We are so lucky in this country to have the right to vote. Don’t waste it. Use it.

That’s absolutely ridiculous. It’s not hard to find the positions of serious candidates on major issues. So even if Vote Compass said you were 100% Liberal or Labor and that’s what you felt your values were, you wouldn’t vote for them because they didn’t respond to your message?

I much prefer to see elections about the whole community, not making it about me and my selfish needs.

I don’t think its ridiculous at all. And its not so much about finding out the answers to those questions but their willingness to engage with the community - which to me is the most important aspect.

There are more than 2 parties to vote for in an election. There isn’t just liberal or labor.

What is important to you and me in an election may differ. What you hold more important to a community might differ to what I hold important. A vote is about you. So there is no mistaking that it is selfish.

But my question is what do you do in the lead up to the election. It is not to debate whether that is correct or incorrect.

That thinking is flawed. Not all candidates have the time or resources to respond to every question from every constituent. Especially if you’re an independent or a minor party who isn’t bankrolled like a representative of a major party.

3 Likes

Maybe but it is something I hold as important. You can judge it as flawed. But it is something I find important. Just as something you find important might not be the same thing as I find important.

My question again is not for judgement. You should never judge someone on how they vote or what they find important. I want to know how people determine who they vote for and what they do in the lead up to an election. Judgement aside

Funnily enough I have done this in the last 3 elections and no independent or minor party has failed to respond to me. It has only been the liberals and labor that have failed.

I complete VoteCompass and any others I find to see where I align most at the time and use that to help determine my vote.

For the senate, I vote below the line, so I do look into the people who are on the senate ticket to determine who my 1-12 will be. I’ve already done this and have it stored on my phone ready for polling day.

3 Likes

I pray to God everyone wakes up and votes BELOW the line in the upper house this time. Sure Tasmania could see a record BtL turnout if they really want Eric Abetz to hang around (3rd on Coalition ticket, no guarantee of retention if Lambie Network support is high), but especially now that you only have to count to 12 (and you have to count to 6 anyway for AtL) there’s really no excuse.

Of course let’s hope it doesn’t extend to George Christensen sneaking in as Hanson’s 3rd wheel…

No chance, it’s purely a money making exercise for One Nation and George.

1 Like

I live in Barnabus’ electorate, so it’s easy to feel like your vote is meaningless when the seat is among the first called.

I usually work backwards - depending on what kind of terrible decides to run will determine whether the Nats go last or may second or third last

2 Likes

I’m in a similar boat in Calare. If this seat is taken from the Nats it’ll be a catastrophe for the government.

2 Likes

Yep, same feeling here in Farrer. Coalition held every election since 1949…

Doesn’t help when Labor doesn’t even bother putting up half decent candidates (although I can understand it’s a bit of a poisoned chalice), their reported candidate for the upcoming election here is one of Albury’s most divisive and controversial councillors in Darren Cameron.

If Farrer were to somehow end up falling to Labor even at this election, I’d be looking to the skies for airborne swine.

The Senate is where I feel my vote counts the most- especially if you go to the effort (and it’s well worth it IMO) of going below the line.

1 Like

Still five or so weeks out from polling day. Waste of money to push out adverts with so much time to go.

Well, I think the Nats have some serious issues and a panicking in the Seat of Nicholls in Northern Vic.
Reasons
Next to Independent Indi seat(Cathy McGowan helping the Independent Canidate)
MP retiring and
If MP retired at Election, Both Coalition go for the seat cause a split vote.
Barnaby Joyce did not favour with his attitude after the opening of the Echuca- Moama Bridge earlier
There is a huge Groundswell of support for the independent.
Political friends I know on Both Sides have massive Swings away from Nats.

I think this seat is one being forgotten about

I think the liberals will have a hard time trying to get support in W.A. given the they were wiped out at the last state election I would see all seats go to labor in my wildest prediction

Labor should start pushing out messaging if they really want to succeed with the voters. Remember Western Australia is a different kind of species :stuck_out_tongue:

Same here too - they’ve treated some of the Nats-held electorates as if they’re a bridge too far to try and capture so they put scant effort in. There seems to have been a bit of a resurgence of support for them here in the past few years (they also got a candidate up in the local council elections) so things might change in the future.

Labor claim that their campaign this year will be their strongest since the late 80s, early 90s - will be interesting to see if it materialises or not.

1 Like

I wonder who the local rag is throwing their suppot behind?


1 Like

With 14 days to go until polling day here is my prediction

Labor 72
Coalition 72
IND 4
Greens 1
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1