A very rare Friday night coming up with no sport (unlike winter with AFL and NRL and much of summer with cricket and tennis), could be a ‘battle of the lifestyle shows and movies’.
Nine have an AFL-themed telethon again in those markets though, interesting to see if it has any impact.
Calm before the storm as I like to call it (no pun intended 
), with two days of Grand Finals ahead!
24 October 2020
2020 afl gf will rate much higher than last year. Channel 7 will win the night easily thanks to AFL GF and telethon Perth.
AFL GF - Brunch - 330k
AFL GF - On the Ground 2m
AFL GF - Richmond v Geelong 2.8m
AFL GF - Presentations 2.2m
AFL GF - Post match - 1.65m
7news - 1.7m
Telethon - 170k (Perth)
Kinky Boots 230k
Saturday October 24
Seven could reach 50% network share with the AFL Grand Final and Telethon in Perth.
AFL Grand Final brunch 0.32m
Horse racing: Cox Plate day 0.24m
AFL Grand Final preview 0.41m
Seven News 1.32m
AFL Grand Final pre-match entertainment 1.5m
AFL Grand Final: on the ground 1.94m
AFL Grand Final: Richmond v Geelong 2.74m
(Sydney 0.33m, Melbourne 1.48m, Brisbane 0.34m, Adelaide 0.28m, Perth 0.31m)
AFL Grand Final: post match presentations 2.24m
AFL Grand Final: post match 1.33m
Telethon 2020 opening night 0.18m (Perth)
October 25, 2020
NRL GF will rate much higher than last year.
NRL GF - 2.024m
NRL GF Presentation - 1.197m
NRL GF Entertainment - 1m
Womens NRL - 300k
Junior Masterchef - 390k
Telethon Perth - 160k
Sunday October 25
The NRL Grand Final will rate well and set up Nine to win the week.
Women’s NRL Grand Final: Broncos v Roosters 0.32m
NRL Grand Final pre-match entertainment 1.15m
NRL Grand Final: Penrith v Melbourne 1.938m
(Sydney 0.92m, Melbourne 0.31m, Brisbane 0.53m, Adelaide 85,000, Perth 93,000)
NRL Grand Final post-match presentation 1.2m
The Graham Norton Show 0.28m
Telethon closing night 0.18m (Perth)
Movie: A Star is Born premiere 0.31m
Bluey season return 0.43m
Sunday October 25.
NRL Grand Final: 2.38 million (Sydney 1.05 million, Melbourne 555k, Brisbane 600k, Adelaide 75k, Perth 100k)
With Melbourne still under lockdown and taking into consideration that previous NRL Grand Finals featuring the Storm have received more than 500k viewers, it would not be unrealistic to expect a similar number this year. The fact that tonight’s match very well could be the Grand Finale for Cameron Smith may also generate some interest.
This year’s biggest ratings increase is likely to be seen in Sydney. Sure, I’m not expecting over 1.5 million viewers in this market (that’s not likely to happen until/unless we see Roosters vs Rabbitohs, Sharks vs Rabbitohs - a really special Grand Final like that) but given that the Penrith Panthers are going for their first premiership in 17 years with most of the local media attention given towards that team during the week, it’d be concerning if tonight’s game didn’t receive over 1 million here. Also, the weather here in Sydney is pretty ordinary today so that along with any current restrictions should encourage viewers to watch the game at home rather than go out to their usual pubs/clubs/sports bars, etc.
South East Queensland ratings will likely be up on last year because the Melbourne Storm does include a fair few Maroons stars + the possibility of this being Cameron Smith’s Grand Final.
Just realised I forgot to post my prediction for the AFL GF yesterday, whoops! Honestly, it was going to be around 2.8m metro, did better than I thought, but it was miles up on last which year which I like I think many suspected.
–
NRL GF: 1.85m
Monday October 26
The Block 0.96m (reveal winner 1.06m)
RBT 0.41m
Junior MasterChef 0.50m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.65m
Drunk History Australia season finale 0.29m
SAS Australia 0.77m
The Rookie 0.31m / 0.29m
Tuesday October 27
The Block 0.85m
The Trump Show 0.44m
Junior MasterChef 0.46m
SAS Australia 0.76m
Movie: The Meg premiere 0.32m
Wednesday October 28
The Block 0.81m
Australian Crime Stories 0.39m
Claremont: Catching a Killer premiere 0.25m (already shown in Perth)
Highway Patrol Rpt 0.41m / 0.39m
Movie: Justice League Rpt 0.32m
The Bachelorette 0.45m
Thursday October 29
The Block 0.69m
Paramedics Rpt 0.36m
The Bachelorette 0.47m
Gogglebox season finale 0.65m
Home and Away triple episodes 0.49m
Britain’s Got Talent season return 0.34m
The Amazing Race season premiere 0.14m
Saturday October 31
It will be a competitive night, with Queensland election coverage up against Bledisloe Cup in primetime. I reckon ABC will win in Brisbane, followed by Nine and Seven.
Melbourne Cup Carnival: AAMI Victoria Derby Day 0.28m
Bledisloe Cup: Australia v New Zealand game 3 match 0.49m
Seven’s horse racing: Iron Jack Golden Eagle Day 0.33m
Sunday November 1
Beat the Chasers series premiere 0.73m
Crime Investigations Australia 0.33m
The Block 0.98m (reveal winner 1.03m)
60 Minutes 0.55m
Junior MasterChef 0.49m
FBI/FBI: Most Wanted crossover premiere 0.22m / 0.19m
Monday November 2
SAS Australia 0.69m
The Rookie 0.31m / 0.28m
The Block 0.85m
Movie: Casino Royale Rpt 0.31m
Junior MasterChef 0.51m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.71m
Tuesday November 3
I think 10’s Melbourne Cup telecast will reach a new low this year, given many Melburnians will be outside to enjoy the 30C weather and watch the race on their mobiles, or in bars and restaurants that are open.
2020 Melbourne Cup - mounting yard 0.81m
2020 Melbourne Cup - race 1.31m
2020 Melbourne Cup - presentation 1.15m
2020 Melbourne Cup - late 0.45m
Junior MasterChef 0.51m
Trump v Biden: The Interviews premiere special 0.31m
The Block 0.81m
The Trump Show finale 0.44m
SAS Australia 0.66m
Movie: Logan Rpt 0.25m
November 3 2020
Melbourne Cup will drop slightly from last year due to fans watching the races on mobiles, tablet computers, and in bars.
Melbourne cup mounting yard - 820k
Melbourne cup race - 1.34m
Melbourne cup presentation - 1.11m
Melbourne cup late - 446k
Junior masterchef - 530k
The Project Trump v Biden special - 345k
The block - 807k
The trump show finale - 389k
SAS Australia - 670k
Movie: Logan - 259k
Wednesday November 4
The US presidential election and State of Origin will dominate the ratings. Nine will easily win the night simply because of its SOO telecast.
State of Origin game 1 pre-match 1.12m
State of Origin game 1: NSW v Queensland 1.97m
State of Origin game 1 post-match 0.96m
The Bachelorette 0.39m
The Masked Singer USA 0.18m
My Houseful of Animals premiere 0.35m
Movie: Honour premiere 0.22m
Planet America 0.47m (ABC) + 0.11m (ABC News)
4 November 2020
Channel Nine will win tonight thanks to State of origin. We will see very high ratings in Adelaide.
State of origin - pre match - 1.18m
State of origin - nsw v qld - 2.014m
State of origin - post match - 778k
The bachelorette - 400k
The masked singer USA - 200k
My houseful of animals - 389k
5 November 2020
Bachelorette Season Finale - 800k
Kennedy Oaks Day - 303k
The Block - 587k
Britain’s Got Talent - 350k
Thursday November 5
Melbourne Cup carnival - Kennedy Oaks Day 0.26m
The Bachelorette season finale 0.52m
The Block 0.65m
Home and Away triple episodes 0.48m
Britain’s Got Talent 0.25m
Sunday November 8
Beat the Chasers 0.65m
7News presents: The American Presidency premiere 0.29m
The Block 1.06m
60 Minutes 0.58m
Junior MasterChef semi final 0.52m
FBI season finale 0.27m
NOvember 9 2020
Junior Masterchef Finale - 600k
HYBPA - 698k
The Block - 1.01m
Quantum of Solace - 310k
SAS Australia - 610k
The Rookie - 313k
Monday November 9
Junior MasterChef finale 0.56m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.66m
The Block 0.84m
Movie: Quantum of Solace Rpt 0.33m
SAS Australia 0.67m
The Rookie 0.31m / 0.28m
Tuesday November 10
SAS Australia 0.62m
Movie: Pacific Rim Rpt 0.28m
The Block 0.82m
Australian Crime Stories 0.36m
11 November 2020
State of Origin NRL will drive channel 9 to a win.
State of origin pre match - 1.15m
State of origin - NSW v QLD - 1.71m
State of origin - post match - 680k
The sporting bubble premiere - 180k
Don’t you think having The Sporting Bubble at 11.10PM on a Wednesday a little weird? I know it’s a good lead in with State of Origin, but viewers will switch off after they know the result of the match.
Wednesday November 11
State of Origin game 2 pre-match 0.95m
State of Origin game 2: NSW v Queensland 1.74m
State of Origin game 2 post-match 0.81m
The Sporting Bubble premiere 0.23m
Jamie’s Quick & Easy Food season premiere 0.27m / 0.25m
The Masked Singer USA 0.16m
My Houseful of Animals part 2 0.29m
Britain’s Got Talent 0.19m