2020 Ratings Predictions

The 2020 ratings year starts Sunday week on 29 December.

Post your predictions, hopes, expectations, forecasts etc for the coming ratings battle.

2020 Ratings Calendar

Week No. Dates
1 - 6 29 Dec 08 Feb
7 - 14 09 Feb 04 Apr
15-16 05 Apr 18 Apr Easter
17 - 48 19 Apr 28 Nov
49 - 52 29 Nov 26 Dec

Bold weeks indicate “the traditional 40-week survey calendar (wks 7-48, excl Easter) and are provided as a courtesy to data users who negotiate on that basis. OzTAM publishes ratings data 365 days per year and declares no official ratings period.”

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Seven to flop hard, not see since early 2000s vs Nine, CEO to be gone before year’s end. Only the usual stuff of news and sport to win. Tokyo 2020 will do well.

Nine to again win pretty much everything.

10 to see stability after a pretty good 2019.

I think SBS will go up more, Viceland and World movies to keep growing, probably good news for SBS Food with no more 7Food Neteork too.

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Agree 7 will have a terrible year and Big Brother + MKR will not perform, struggling to get above 500k.

i think 2020 will see the start of the downfall of commerical tv . i think 7 will raise over 9 and 10 but the rating numbers wont be that good as like in prevous years

Already started long ago.

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Personally I think we’ll see Nine win the most number of ratings weeks (again, benefiting from being “the least worst option” in primetime for much of the year), with Seven ahead in overall viewing shares at the end of 2020 due to primetime coverage of the Tokyo Olympics.

I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here should do reasonably well to start off with, but will probably get smashed by the cricket/tennis towards the end. Married At First Sight will continue to smash it for Nine off the back of the tennis as MAFS continues to provide viewers with manufactured dramas which quite frankly, make Love On The Spectrum and Love Me As I Am look like Play School in comparison.

Lego Masters, The Voice, Australian Ninja Warrior, The Block and The Masked Singer to receive audience declines, but all will probably rate better than anything Seven puts to air post-7.30pm, after the Olympics. Probably the final seasons (or one of the final seasons) for My Kitchen Rules, House Rules and MasterChef with those shows getting ratings well past their best.

The Bachelor/ette and Have You Been Paying Attention? will probably continue to bring in the viewers for Ten, but I’m expecting Gogglebox Australia to decline as further original cast members depart for more career expansive media profile boost vehicles and the program continues to overrely on “reality” show reviews.

In Sport, the Tokyo Olympics and AFL will be among the few bright spots for Seven in 2020. The AFL/NRL Grand Finals again to recieve less viewers than previous years especially if the teams playing for the trophy are as popular (or should I say, unpopular) with non-fans as the 2018 & 2019 Grand Finalists were. A game of New South Wales v the rest of Australia…I mean, State Of Origin rugby league will probably be Nine’s highest rating telecast of the year.

Last but certainly not least…News, Current Affairs and Daytime: Despite the axing of Today Tonight, Seven will probably continue to dominate Adelaide & Perth with wins every night from January 1 to December 31. Nine News will probably hold onto Sydney, but the gap at 6.30pm will continue to get tighter with Seven winning that half hour during several weeks of the year. As much as they shouldn’t, Nine will continue to ignore the fact that they need to improve their Sydney weather coverage while Seven will continue to ignore the fact that Mark Ferguson just isn’t the right presenter to lead a Sydney 6pm bulletin to #1 in the ratings.

A Current Affair will somehow remain the #1 program at 7pm along the East Coast, with ABC News and The Project either 2nd or 3rd (depending on the market) while Home & Away struggles for Seven. By the end of 2020, we’ll probably hear rumours that Seven want to launch a new nightly national “current/public affairs” program for the 7pm timeslot.

Today will continue to struggle in the ratings against a seemingly unstoppable Sunrise and even News Breakfast on the ABC, with Allison & Karl likely to receive just as much abuse from the media (particularly News Corp & The Daily Mail) and the general public as Georgie, Deb & Tom did. The Morning Show, sister program The Daily Edition and The Chase (both UK & Australia) should continue to do good business for Seven’s daytime ratings. Hot Seat will continue to decline, with Nine probably eventually replacing it with Tipping Point Australia.

ABC News at 7pm + 7.30 will probably remain steady or slightly down in the ratings compared to 2019, but the ever reliable Monday night lineup of Australian Story, Four Corners, Media Watch and Q&A should again do good business and receive a higher audience share than Ten during several weeks of the year.

10 News First will again, remain 10 News Fourth as far as the ratings are concerned. The 6pm half hour will probably rate well enough over the Summer to become a permanent fixture of the schedule, but I’m not expecting it to become #1 or even #2 (except in Perth, where Nine News seems to be universally unpopular in the same way that Seven News is universally popular) unless they position it as being a completely separate product from the 5pm hour right to the point of there being new presenters for the final 30 minutes. Meanwhile, The Project & Studio 10 will probably remain steady.

I think that’s just about everything…

2020 Ratings Predictions

For Seven:

  • AFL and Tokyo 2020 Olympics will rate well. Even in NSW and QLD, the ratings could be on the way up. The AFL Grand Final will again be Number 1 rating program for the 7th straight year in a row. Tokyo 2020 will see primetime shares go up further due to timezone. Tokyo Olympics will be shown on 7, 7Two, 7Mate and even 7flix (For AFL (as AFL is shunted to 7mate) and News commitments)
  • Sunrise will still be number 1 for the 15th year in a row. The Morning show will again be a Number 1 morning talk show for the 13th year. Will at some stage Morning SHow take a hiatus during the Games?
  • Seven News will make slight increase in Sydney (due to the Tokyo Olympics). In Adelaide and Perth, they will stay Number 1.
  • MKR and House Rules will struggle again next year. The revived edition of Big Brother will start off well but will see declines. BB will struggle in Perth.
  • HOme and Away will continue to struggle in its 7pm timeslot. There is speculation that Home and Away will be shunted to 7Two.

For Nine:

  • With regards to the 2020 Australian Open, the tennis will see ratings go up from last year. Will at some stage see close matches? Can Perth ratings go up significantly?
  • Married at First Sight will see ratings decline following the controversy in 2019.
  • Lego Masters will be the Number 1 entertainment show.
  • With Sonia Kruger moving back to Seven, will at some stage, THe Voice see ratings crash?
  • Australia Ninja Warrior could see a decline. Some people are sick of the commentary.
  • FOr NRL, the ratings will drop. This is where several fans abandoning the game in droves. State of Origin and NRL GF will once again slide.
  • FOr the T20 World Cups in Australia - Ratings will be very good and could see primetime shares go up further. I think Nine will screen Australian T20 Matches, selected matches and the finals live.
  • The Block - what can I say? The ratings will plummet a bit.
  • Documentaries will rate OK.
  • Today SHow with returning Karl Stefanovic and new hostess Allison Langdon will rise up a little bit, however, they will be beaten by Sunrise.
  • Hot Seat will continue its downward trend and could get beaten by 10 News First on one week.

FOr 10:

  • I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here will start off reasonably well, but could get hit hard by Channel 9 with Australian Open.
  • Australian Survivor ALl Stars will do reasonably well and could stay stable.
  • Dancing with the stars will lift for 10 (as the show was shifted from SYD to Melbourne).
  • HYBPA will rate exceptionally well. Will at some stage a HYBPA episode see ratings above 1 million?
  • MasterChef Australia could recover from 2019 with new judges and a new set.
  • The Rugby Championship will no doubt, crash and burn as many fans have lost interest in this code of sport.
  • THe Bachelor and the Bachelorette will remain stable.
  • Gogglebox Australia will decline with original cast members that have left and gone onto other commitments.
  • The Masked Singer will not have the star power from Season 1 and could see ratings fall.
  • 10 News First will see a slight spike in ratings though With Narelda Jacobs moving to Sydney, Perth market will drop by a slim margin.
  • STudio 10 and The Project will remain steady.
  • IN regards with 10Peach, Neighbours will drop to less than 100k (5-city metro). will this be the end of Neighbours?

FOr ABC:

  • ABC News will see ratings remain steady or slightly up, but with a few entertainment programs, they could rate well.

For SBS

  • SBS could be up further with more science fiction movies, documentaries, drama and entertainment. Tour de France will do OK.

2020 The Final Word
Nine wins in terms of number of weeks (Can Nine Perth finally win an official ratings week for the first time since 2012?)
Seven win in terms of the primetime share by a fraction.
Ten win in terms of younger demographics.

Most likely.

While I’m not expecting MAFS to receive an increase in ratings next year, I think the decline will be minimal compared to most other shows.

I don’t think the move of production back to Melbourne will affect the ratings of Dancing With The Stars much.

If The Voice crashes in the ratings, I reckon it’ll have less to do with the lack of Sonia Kruger and more because viewers have had enough of a format which has failed to create any significant/long lasting talent in the Australian music industry. I mean, honestly…the only time you ever see/hear most winners of The Voice Australia again is on Carols By Candlelight and Channel Nine promos! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

No. I’d probably expect Neighbours to remain in production and on-air for as long as it continues to sell internationally and counts towards Ten’s Australian content/drama quotas.

They have a contract with Five in the UK until 2021. If Five keeps funding its production, Ten will keep screening it. It’s still their highest rating show on 10 Peach most of the time

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This is what I’m thinking. Australia Ninja Warrior relocated from Sydney to Melbourne in late 2018 (due to noise I believe) and the ratings went up in Melbourne. Channel 10, had a decent 2019 in the 2nd half. And I think 10 should be up in 2020.

Remember the 2019 AFLGF when it was a lopsided match. It rated 2.215 million metro viewers (it even cracked the 1 million mark in Melbourne). I would think that AFL GF will rate below 2.5 million metro viewers if it’s a Richmond v West Coast Eagles GF. [MCG could well go over 100k].
THe NRL GF being played in SCG will drop in ratings.

The rugby Union tv rights haven’t been decided yet

Ten:
Studio 10 will come into second place THREE times in 2020, and thats it. Saturday nights, Ten will have half a dozen nights of +10% shares.

Nine: Bondi Vet will fail and wont see another episode.

Seven: Big Brother will be seen by plenty for the first fortnight, but will then bomb, as viewers realize its a crap show

2 Likes

My general predictions for 2020:
Married at First Sight and The Block will rate similar to 2019. Lego Masters, Ninja Warrior and The Voice will be lower than last year.
My Kitchen Rules and House Rules will continue to drop. Big Brother will flop.
Australian Survivor should do OK.

My first nightly prediction for 2020:
Friday January 3
Australia v New Zealand: Third Test
session 1: 0.54m, session 2: 0.63m, session 3: 0.74m
BBL: Hurricanes v Heat session 1: 0.43m, session 2: 0.46m

ATP Cup day session: 0.16m, night session 0.22m

Movie: My Big Fat Greek Wedding Rpt 0.22m

Saturday January 4
Australia v New Zealand: Third Test
session 1: 0.63m, session 2: 0.74m, session 3: 0.78m
Movie: Oblivion Rpt 0.26m

ATP Cup day session 0.18m
Movie: E.T. The Extra-terrestrial Rpt 0.35m
Movie: Stargate Rpt 0.19m

Sunday January 5
I reckon the premiere of Marvel movie Black Panther will dent the ratings of I’m a Celebrity as they both target younger viewers.

Australia v New Zealand: Third Test
session 1: 0.62m, session 2: 0.75m, session 3: 0.81m
BBL: Sixers v Strikers session 1: 0.46m, session 2: 0.48m
Movie: There’s Something About Mary Rpt 0.25m

60 Minutes 0.49m
Movie: Black Panther premiere 0.36m

The Graham Norton Show 0.33m
I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here: opening night 0.95m
I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here: welcome to the jungle 0.93m

January 5, 2020
Channel 10 will win in terms of Young Demographics thanks to Celebrity, though Seven will take out the night in terms of primetime shares.

The Graham Norton Show - 350k
I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here: Opening Night: 960k
I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here: Welcome to the Jungle: 970k

AUstralia v NZ: 3rd Test
S1: 622k, S2: 767k, S3: 815k
BBL: Sixers v Strikers S1: 456k, S2: 489k
Movie: There’s Something About Mary rpt : 248k

60 Mins: 488k
Movie: Black Panther Premiere: 343k
ATP Cup: 143k

Monday January 6
I’m a Celebrity should do well again while Seven’s ratings will be affected by rain delay to BBL in Sydney.

Australia v New Zealand: Third Test
session 1: 0.34m, session 2: 0.42m, session 3: 0.54m
BBL: Thunder v Heat session 1: 0.39m, session 2: 0.42m

I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here 0.74m

RBT Rpt 0.43m
The Fix 0.25m / 0.23m

8 Jan 2020
BBL Melbourne Stars v Sydney Thunder: 466k
ATP Cup: 207k
I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! - 772k
Serengeti: Misfortune - 421k
Bull (return) - 312k

Saturday January 11
With no BBL on FTA tonight (the doubleheader is on Fox Cricket), Nine will win tonight with the tennis.

ATP Cup semi final: Australia v Spain 0.45m

Movie: Never Been Kissed Rpt 0.25m
Movie: Susie Cooper: Spy Rpt 0.22m

11/1/2020
Nine will win tonight thanks to the tennis.

ATP Cup Semi Final: AUS v Spain - 444k

Movie: Never Been Kissed (rpt) - 244k
Movie: Susie Cooper: Spy (rpt) - 232k

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa - 186k

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