2019 Ratings Predictions

[Sully]

SOO Game II: 2.19m

[JohnsonTV]

Monday June 24
House Rules 0.64m
Movie: John Wick Chapter 2 premiere 0.41m

The Voice finals 1 0.98m
The Show Must Go On: The Queen + Adam Lambert Story premiere 0.37m

MasterChef Australia 0.66m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.71m
Kinne Tonight 0.31m

[SydneyCityTV]

@Sully

I think SOO Game 1 each year paints a picture of how the series will rate, like the overall interest, as it’s the first match with anticipation and been heavily promoted for weeks.

This year SOO Game 3 is starting from a low base (1.9m last night and 2.1m for Game 1), how much will that jump?

With this year’s Game 3 being a decider, surely Nine would be disappointed with anything less than 2.1 million across the five cities, 950k in Sydney and 600k-ish in South East Queensland.

I’m sure the network is thanking their lucky stars that NSW won last night, otherwise the ratings might’ve fallen either further on July 10!

@Sully

With decade lows for the AFL GF and NRL GF last year

I’d imagine to some extent at least, last year’s AFL & NRL Grand Finals were the lowest rating in a decade because the teams involved were…shall we say, quite polarising (in the NRL’s case, the 2018 grand final teams are IMO just elitist and not for the game’s true fans) outside their respective fan bases. That said, Seven would’ve been glad the West Coast Eagles won because much of their loyalist Perth market is obsessed with the team. Meanwhile Nine would’ve been glad the Roosters won because like the NRL, they’re based in that team’s territory and deep down, probably have a soft spot for them.

But from a purely ratings perspective, surely an all-Melbourne AFL Grand Final and an all-Sydney NRL Grand Final would be dream stuff for this year? That would bring in the viewers from the top markets of both codes, while other markets would still get a sizeable audience just because it’s the grand final.

[Sully]

@SydneyCityTV

West Coast Eagles won because much of their loyalist Perth market

Last year’s AFL GF was a thriller though, including in the dying minutes. Only the first quarter was lop sided, which I’d be gobsmacked if neutral or casual viewers tuned-out then, plus the biggest team in the land in Collingwood and as you say West Coast for WA markets…

Yet only got 2.6m metro, which is definitely low for AFL standards. Was over 3m metro less than 3 years ago and around 3.4m metro in mid-2000s on 10 with the famous 2005 and 2006 Sydney vs West Coast GFs, which had a record 1m in Sydney.

[turdall]

@Sully

Last year’s AFL GF was a thriller though, including in the dying minutes. Only the first quarter was lop sided, which I’d be gobsmacked if neutral or casual viewers tuned-out then,

I think what SydneycityTV is saying is that some viewers didn’t even tune in because of the two teams involved. They are certainly not likeable clubs outside their supporter base. Even in a recent survey here they were put down as 2 disliked clubs.

Also grand finals will never reach 3 million again due to the possibility of streaming etc.

[Sully]

@turdall

SYDNEY

LOL. Did you do that on purpose

[Super_SC]

@turdall

I think what SYDNEY is saying is that some viewers didn’t even tune in because of the two teams involved

If it’s an all-Sydney NRL Grand Final, it would JUST surpass 1 million in Sydney. For example, if it’s a South Sydney v Sydney Roosters Grand Final at ANZ Stadium, it will be HUGE in Sydney and will see 96% of Sydney viewers watching the NRL Grand FInal on Nine. Sydney Roosters are an unlikeable feral club and this saw NRL Grand Final 2018 ratings to diminish a bit.
Whereas, if it’s an all-Melbourne AFL Grand Final, it will more likely surpass 1.3 million people in Melbourne with 96.7% of the Melbourne audience watching it on Seven. Pretend if it’s a Geelong-Collingwood Grand Final, it will be a 2.64 million metro viewers.

@Sully

Did you do that on purpose

I think Turdall thinks that Sydney Swans fans cannot stand COllingwood and West Coast as they were disliked clubs. Collingwood is on my number 1 list for the most bogan club. And some NRL fans particularly in other states don’t like Sydney Roosters

[turdall]

My stupid phone caps all cities and I couldn’t be bothered fixing it.

[JohnsonTV]

Tuesday June 25
Big night for Nine with The Voice’s second final and live cricket.

The Voice finals 2 0.86m
The Big Bang Theory new 0.46m
Cricket World Cup: England v Australia (9Gem) session 1 0.39m

House Rules 0.58m
Andrew Denton’s Interview 0.43m

MasterChef Australia 0.65m
Body Hack season premiere 0.45m

[Super_SC]

25 June 2019
9Gem will set a new primetime share record for the night thanks to the cricket.
THe Voice Finals - 0.82m
The Big bang Theory - 0.44m
Cricket World Cup: England vs Australia (9GEM) - 0.45m
House Rules - 0.66m
Andrew Denton’s Interview - 444k
MasterChef AUstralia - 660k

[JohnsonTV]

Wednesday June 26
The Super Switch 0.32m
The Front Bar 0.41m

Talkin’ 'Bout Your Generation season finale 0.49m
20 to One 0.38m

MasterChef Australia 0.72m
Five Bedrooms 0.45m

[JohnsonTV]

Thursday June 27
Thursday night AFL: Essendon v GWS 0.42m (Melbourne and Adelaide) + 0.12m (Sydney, Brisbane and Perth)
Home and Away triple episodes 0.51m (Seven + 7TWO)
Britain’s Got Talent 0.32m (Seven + 7mate)

Thursday night NRL: Tigers v Rabbitohs 0.38m (Sydney and Brisbane)

MasterChef Australia 0.65m
Taboo season finale 0.32m

[JohnsonTV]

Sunday June 30
Nine will easily win the night with the Logies and the cricket, although the cricket will take some viewers away from the TV awards.

TV Week Logie Awards red carpet 0.74m
61st TV Week Logie Awards 0.93m

House Rules 0.73m
Sunday Night 0.44m

MasterChef Australia 0.59m
FBI new 0.25m

[Sully]

Logies: 675k

[Super_SC]

30 JUne 2019
Logie Awards will take another dive, (especially in Melbourne and Sydney) but will just win for Nine Network
Logie red carpet - 787k
61st Logie Awards - 636k
Cricket World Cup - ENG v IND - 211k
House Rules - 677k
Masterchef - 699k

[JohnsonTV]

Monday July 1
The Voice finals 3 0.78m
Buble! (music special) premiere 0.35m

MasterChef Australia 0.62m
Have You Been Paying Attention? 0.73m
Kinne Tonight season finale 0.29m

House Rules 0.61m
S.W.A.T. (FTA premiere) 0.31m / 0.28m
Wimbledon day 1 0.13m

[JohnsonTV]

Tuesday July 2
The Voice semi final 0.84m
The Big Bang Theory rpt 0.49m

MasterChef Australia 0.65m
Todd Sampson’s Body Hack 0.34m

House Rules 0.58m
Interview 0.44m

[David]

Big Bang isn’t new

[JohnsonTV]

Wednesday July 3
Tonight is all about the end of TBBT.

The Big Bang Theory series finale 0.54m / 0.56m
Young Sheldon 0.45m
Unravelling The Mystery-A Big Bang Farewell premiere 0.49m
Cricket World Cup: England v New Zealand (9Gem) session 1 0.21m

Border Security season return 0.46m
The Force season return 0.45m
The Super Switch 0.32m / 0.28m

MasterChef Australia 0.74m
Five Bedrooms season finale 0.51m

[JohnsonTV]

Thursday July 4
Seven should win tonight with Ash Barty playing in Australian primetime at Wimbledon.

Home and Away triple episodes 0.58m
The Front Bar 0.41m
Britain’s Got Talent 0.29m
Wimbledon day 4 (7TWO) 0.31m

Thursday night NRL: Dragons v Storm 0.35m (Sydney and Brisbane)

MasterChef Australia 0.63m
Taboo pilot rpt 0.28m