2018 Ratings Predictions

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Sunday 31 December is the first day of the new ratings year.

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Good luck to the 2018 MediaSpy predictors :smile:

Particularly @JohnsonTV & @Super_SC.

I’d like to see ratings data, showing any correlation between declining Sydney NYE fireworks in Melbourne & Melbourne’s NYE fireworks having coverage?

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31 dec 2017
ABC will kick off the new year thanks to the NYE2017 Coverage
Family fireworks - 0.66m
NYE coverage - 877k
Midnight fireworks - 1.22m

Seven Melbourne NYE 2017

1.01m

In the absence of a dedicated 2018 NY thread, a Happy 2018 to all MS members!!

A disclaimer: I have no 2018 rating predictions.

:beers:

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It barely got 1/10th of that (sadly) :pensive:

7/01/18

The Ghan: 460K

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Excuse the essay length

Some general predictions for the upcomimg 2018 survey:

•Gold Coast Comm Games - Opening and/or Closing Ceremonies to be the biggest program of the year, I’ll say 3m (metro). I base that off the last equivalent event in Australia - Melbourne 2006, which got around 3.5m (metro). But who knows, times have changed and even though it’s major sport, it’s not Olympics and it is the Gold Coast. We’ll see.

•Australian Spartan to be the biggest show launch of 2018, I’ll say 1.75m (metro).

•6pm News to not change much at all. Seven dominant nationally, 5 city and regionally. But Nine winning Melbourne and Sydney, probably Brisbane too.

•The Voice to sink into the abyss, as rival House Rules to hold (had good, surprise increase last year).

•I think MKR will hold around 1.25m (give or take, certainly with consolidated). With Married to have a slower start and perhaps not rate as well, maybe 900-950k tops, except for a few eps? The promos are cringe-worthy, toooo many. Not saying MKR’s any better.

•So Seven should win first half again, doubt it’ll be as impressive though, remember last year Nine didn’t win a single week until July or August (first week of Ninja)! Seven claimed best in 6 years.

•Depending on what Seven air, I expect Nine to dominate Q3 again with Ninja.

•Q4 could be anyone’s game. If Seven have hit shows again, they should win it again.

Remembering Winter Olympics and Comm Games + new Spartan are affecting some other show start times throughout this year.

•Ten I expect to improve a little, having their best summer non-ratings since OzTam began possibly by the end.

•I expect to see an increase for MasterChef and hopefully away from Ninja as much as possible. With 10th season, plus Nigella returning and Gordon Ramsay debut.

•Bachelor in Paradise should be a hit, for Ten, I’ll say 800k+ easily.

•Bachelorette will go down to 2016 level again, after Sophie Monk’s high. Bachelor probably stable.

•I actually have no idea about ■■■■■■■■? Should rate solid, 600k-700k against MKR and Married would be good for Ten. With opening over 1m, despite Aus Open final (which on a 55% share night, Ten still achieved last year).

•AFL GF will top the year as always, if Comm Games or Aus Open don’t rate higher. Also depending on some reality finales, including Spartan, Ninja and Block (based of 2017).

I’ll add more about less major shows (comedies, dramas, panels, etc) + ABC / SBS later :slight_smile:

Thoughts?

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I’m actually thinking that Nine might actually take this year in terms of ratings, despite the quality of shows on both Nine and Seven being dubious.

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Probably not network (unless Seven’s main channel flunked), due to their strong multi-channels.

But certainly main channel, just 0.1% separated Ch 7 & Ch 9 last survey 5 city & also Melbourne market.

Predictions for 2018.

  • AFL GF will be the No 1 program of 2018.
  • GC2018 will be the No 1 program in multichannels in 2018.
  • No changes to 6PM News bulletins ratings.
  • No changes to Breakfast TV viewership
  • Hughesy, We Have a Problem will be the biggest flop of 2018 and be moved to 11.
  • Cram will be axed after 3 episodes.
  • Seven Network will be No 1 Network in 2018 thanks to AFL, 2018 Olympics and GC2018, Melbourne Cup, Australian Spartan
  • Nine will dominate in 2018 thanks to NRL, #Origin, Married at First Sight, Ninja Warrior, TAYG.
  • TEN will dip slightly, but will do OK with the Demos.
  • The Project will fall by 4% but can manage to win 16-39 demos.
  • SBS will increase its share with FIFA World Cup in June, July.
  • ABC? Will increase by 0.1% in shares.

Seven should win easily, with the tennis and the biggest Aussie playing.

Australian Open - Night 1: 825k

Australian Open - Late Night 1: 350k

Australian Open - 7mate night: 150k?

Seven will win easily with 3 Aussies in action tonight, including our best hope Kyrgios.

Australian Open - Night 3: 750k

Australian Open - Late Night 3: 375k

Australian Open - 7mate night: 150k?

On what is usually a terrible night for television, Seven will again dominate with aussie Ash Barty a hopeful to make it through to R3 of the tennis, followed by Federer + Wawrinka on 7mate tonight :australia: :tennis:

Australian Open - Night 4: 800k

Australian Open - Late Night 4: 300k

Australian Open - 7mate night: 150k

Tennis and cricket head-to-head today / tonight.

Unfortunately a huge R2 match between aussie best Kyrgios and champ Tsonga is tonight, should be great and could push to 5 sets :disappointed_relieved:

Seven No 1 network, closer in main channel.

Australian Open - Night 5: 900k
ODI cricket (Game 2): 800k
Australian Open - Late Night 5: 350k
Australian Open - 7mate night: 100k

That was a good prediction :hugs:

Another pretty good prediction :clap:

All about live sport the entire night, tennis vs. cricket (BBL) again. Both telecasts airing until 12:30 - 1am.

Whoever wins, will depend on how good the tennis matches / BBL games are and how long they go for.

Expect Nine, ABC & SBS to all rate terrible tonight.

Huge night for Aussie tennis, as Kyrgios faces Dimitrov (and we know how long he can play for) to make the Quarter Finals.

Seven will dominate. Again for the 2nd time and year in a row, it won’t help Nine’s cricket ODI.

Australian Open - Night 7: 1.1m

Australian Open - Late Night: 400k

Australian Open - Day: 400k

ODI night: 600k

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