2017 Ratings Predictions

I hope @TV.Cynic doesn’t mind me starting this one, but since 2016 is almost over it will soon be time for a 2017 Ratings Predictions thread.

Anyway, here’s my predictions for the year ahead in TV ratings! :slight_smile:

In 2017, I think we’ll see Seven remaining Australia’s #1 network overall, Nine having some success in the demographics and the East Coast but otherwise remaining #2 (primarily due to news/sport) with Ten having continued primetime growth (even outrating Nine during primetime for much of the year) but otherwise remaining #3 overall. Ten really needs better news & sports departments if they really want to properly take Nine head on for the spot of Australia’s #2 rating network.

One of the big ratings stories of 2017 is probably going to be the continuing battle between Seven and Nine in breakfast TV and 6pm news. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both networks pump millions of dollars into branding refreshes, an onslaught of primetime promotion, viewer competitions and (in the case of breakfast TV alone) weeks of OBs across the country throughout the year in the fight for #1 between Sunrise and Today in the morning as well as Seven News and Nine News in the evening.

Leading into the 6pm news, I’m expecting The Chase Australia to continue to perform well in the ratings for Seven but the extended, relaunched Hot Seat to be one of many ratings disappointments for Nine in 2017. By the end of 2017 or early 2018, I would not be totally surprised to see some sort of 5pm news bulletin or another news/current affairs-based program as a lead-in to Nine’s 6pm news bulletins.

In primetime…

*Final seasons for The Voice, House Rules and The Block due to declining ratings and being tired formats generally.
*Like what we saw with Australia’s Got Talent this year, the ratings of the next instalment of Underbelly will prove to Nine why they rested it in the first place. I don’t expect House Husbands to recover from being off our screens for over a year either.
*Australian Ninja Warrior to be the biggest flop on Australian TV in 2017 and bumped to late night or 9Go! after no more than three episodes.
*The genre of dating/romance-themed reality shows to decline across the board due to viewers getting sick and tired of seeing so many types of these shows on our screens.
*My Kitchen Rules, MasterChef, Australian Survivor and the miniseries’ on Paul Hogan and Olivia Newton John that Seven are airing will probably be among the most notable non-sport ratings hits of 2017.
*As usual, the true ratings winners will be major sporting events including (but not limited to) the Summer Of Tennis, AFL, NRL, State Of Origin, Melbourne Cup and the Summer Of Cricket.

Now let’s come back in twelve months time to see how wrong I was with all that! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

As always, I’d certainly be very interested to hear what others on Media Spy are predicting for the year ahead! Of course throughout the year, I’ll probably occasionally do the usual daily predictions that many Media Spy members partake in.

2 Likes

I am a mostly news person on MS which is why you see me posting mainly on news threads.

Like you said, the Chase will be crucial to Seven News especially on the East Coast, where it usually loses ratings-wise after 6:30pm. Hot Seat is already unbearable in many parts and the extension of it will be the last straw. Seven News will probably continue closing the gap on Nine News in Sydney and Melbourne, however I am still expecting Nine News to win in Sydney and Melbourne, while Seven News will win Adelaide and Perth (with Nine News remaining in a distant 4th behind ABC News and TENFAF) hands down. Brisbane will probably be a bit of a cliffhanger, with this year’s battle proving to be the tightest of the tightest (Nine winning by a narrow Margin), but I think next year might be Seven’s year or resurgence and will eventually take out next year’s news battle.

With the way Sunrise is going right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunrise will flog Today in the ratings from next year. After all, Sunrise started winning consistent weeks almost right after Today won in terms of 5-City average, thanks to format changes. On the other hand, Weekend Sunrise will continue to dominate Weekend breakfast tv ahead of Weekend Today on Nine and Weekend Breakfast on the ABC.

In summary, expect next year to be another year of big events in terms of news and a current affairs in 2017.

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My thoughts :grinning:

Free-to-air TV will continue to decline, major sport events defy this however with the AFL Grand Final topping the year. With this in mind…

Seven: Will continue to dominate as #1. Shares to decline. MKR will dominate as the top regular show again, the highlight. Should again average around 1.5m. Top program will be the AFL GF. Better news than 2016: 6pm News. Worse news than 2016: Home and Away.

Nine: Should have the same year as 2016 (albeit not as poor). Shares to decline. I don’t see any series averaging over 1m, maybe a drama? The Block should again be the highlight. SOO 1 will be the top program. Better news than 2016: fingers crossed Q1 & Q2 should fare better, it surely can’t be the same poor margin in share as 2016. Worse news than 2016: 6pm news, NRL (now cemented with Foxtel’s own channel, Ch 9 saw how much it affacted ratings in 2016, as did Ch 7 with the AFL back in 2012).

Ten: Should have the least declines of all the networks, which would be positive, some shares may see growth. MasterChef the highlight, hopefully will average between 1.1 to 1.2m again. MasterChef winner will be the top program. Better news than 2016: full-proof line-up, more consistent shares & hopefully will win a survey week, revenue and ad sales share could also be better, I also think Australian Survivor will be better. Worse news than 2016: 5pm news (if they don’t do something soon) & general ratings decline in-line with the industry. Perhaps The Bachelor might drop off a bit.

Thoughts? That was only a quick prediction synopsis.

1 Like

I think main channel shares of Seven and Nine will dip slightly with Ten’s going up. The real competition will be on multichannels.
To my predictions for today. It’s round 1 of cricket v tennis and cricket will win hands down.

BBL: Stars v Renegades session 1: 0.59m, session 2 0.77m
BBL: Scorchers v Thunder session 1: 0.81m, session 2 0.56m

Hopman Cup night 1 0.33m

60 Minutes 0.56m
Inside Story 0.43m
Movie: Hostage rpt 0.37m

Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo 2016 0.67m

1 Like

My overall 2017 predictions:

Ratings averages will continue to decline, except live sport. Expecting AFL Grand Final, NRL Grand Final, State of Origin game(s) and MKR finale to top the year.

Seven: Still #1 but slightly lower share overall. The Chase will continue beating Hot Seat, but its east coast 6pm news bulletins will continue being beaten by Nine regardless. MKR season average will noticably dip on previous years, but will beat direct competition. First Dates will be well down but still do OK, while Seven Year Switch won’t live up to season 1 and quietly get bumped. Yummie Mummies will be flop of the year for Seven, while Million Dollar Cold Case and Aussie Property Flippers will start reasonably big then quickly drop off. Wanted won’t get a season 3. ONJ won’t perform as well as Hoges or Warnie biopics, but all will do well. Big Bang Theory will continue to perform reasonably well as filler programs, as will Seven’s factuals (Highway Patrol, Bor Sec, Beach Cops, etc)

Nine: Still #2 with slightly higher share overall. 1 hour Hot Seat won’t topple The Chase, but its 6pm News will thrash Seven on the east coast. The Block will again be its star performer. NRL ratings will still be good, but dip with added competition from Fox Sports. Here Come the Habibs will be a renewal regret. Travel Guides will do OK. Both Ninja Warrior and Hamish & Andy will start off big, and quickly decrease. Big Bang Theory and RBT will be used as filler programs and be moderate successes.

Ten: Still #3, similar share but feeling ABC creeping up behind. MasterChef will be Ten’s highlight for the year. Australian Survivor will be somewhat lower, and I’m A Celeb somewhat higher. HYBPA? continues as Ten’s quiet achiever. The millionth reboot of Biggest Loser fails to launch yet again throughout its season, but pulls a decent finale figure. The Bachelor & Bachelorette up slightly. New drama Sisters will open big, but slump quickly for episode 2 and continue to decline.

ABC: Slightly higher share, bouyed by local drama and comedy. Its Monday night news lineup will continue to perform strongly and beat Ten several weeks of the year.

Sky News: By the much lower standards of pay TV ratings, Sky News will get more shows in the top 20 Foxtel ratings consistently each week, as it digs into its moderately successful niche with primetime political panel shows and consistent scheduling, boosted by ample free publicity from its new owner News Corp care of print and online newspaper articles.

4 Likes

Monday January 2
BBL: Hurricanes v Strikers
session 1: 0.55m, session 2: 0.68m

Hopman Cup night 2 0.35m

RBT rpt 0.64m
Movie: The Fugitive rpt 0.42m

Monday the 2nd of January 2017:

Lots on TV, however it’s still summer programming. Cricket will dominate…

No. 1 network: Ten

No. 1 main channel: Ch 10

•Cricket - BBL (Game 14, Session 2): 750k
•Cricket - BBL (Game 14, Session 1): 675k

•RBT: 575k
•Hopman Cup: 450k
•The Fugitive: 350k

Tuesday January 3
Ratings for the pink ball test will be down because it is a dead rubber and today is the first working day of 2017…

Cricket: Australia v Pakistan: 3rd test
session 1: 0.44m, session 2: 0.54m, session 3: 0.71m
The Big Bang Theory rpt 0.54m/0.52m
Movie: Miss Congeniality rpt 0.43m

First Dates UK 0.49m
Hopman Cup night 3 0.25m

BBL: Heat v Sixers
session 1: 0.62m, session 2: 0.76m, post game 0.43m

1 Like

I’m pretty much just going to agree with all of that (if that’s okay) :grin:

Although I think:

BBL session 2: 800k

Test cricket session 3: 800k

Dead rubber? Isnt that what Australians love? One sided Australian wins with Australia batting and two players getting 100?

Wednesday January 4
Cricket: Australia v Pakistan: 3rd test
session 1: 0.54m, session 2: 0.68m, session 3: 0.83m
RBT rpt 0.59m
20 to 1 rpt 0.43m

Highway Patrol 0.54m
Hopman Cup night 4 0.33m

BBL: Thunder v Stars
session 1: 0.56m, session 2: 0.73m

Thursday January 5
Cricket: Australia v Pakistan: 3rd test
session 1: 0.43m (no play due to rain), session 2: 0.64m, session 3: 0.91m
Great Getaways 0.53m
Movie: Four Weddings and A Funeral rpt 0.44m

Hopman Cup night 5 0.34m

BBL: Scorchers v Heat
session 1: 0.62m, session 2: 0.79m

I’m interested to know what people think about the May to July period (Quarter 2) this year?

It’s shaping up to be a little different in terms of scheduling & very competitive.

Now, MasterChef airs Sunday - Thursday over 3+ months (I think it’s the longest reality series)? But it doesn’t look set to air until late May this year.

House Rules will most likely air after MKR.

The Voice looks like it will air either after Ninja Warrior or alongside it.

It could mean MasterChef is given less competition over late July / August & a strong lead-in to The Bachelor. But it won’t be airing straight after MKR, which in previous years has been said to work by continuing the ‘cooking reality’ trend/fans.

There’s also the question as to Ch 7’s Q3 & Q4 line-ups, which were lacklustre to say the least last year.

Certainly I see Ch 7 dominating the first quarter (and probably first half).

Ch 9 doing very well in at least the last quarter (The Block). All eyes will be on the first half of the year, in particular Ninja Warrior.

Ch 10 will do well over the middle of the year, particularly July-August. Between I’m A Celebrity & MasterChef will be an interesting period, no idea how Biggest Loser will go.

Most of us are not obsessing over Masterchef so have no thoughts on the subject. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Of course, I should have expected a comment like that from you JBar

Just as we all expect your obsessed rantings about Masterchef. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Maybe it’s a perception?

I’m not obsessed with it.

There are more MediaSpy members who have posted on the MasterChef thread than myself :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

[quote=“LukeMovieMan, post:17, topic:2321”]
Maybe it’s a perception? I’m not obsessed with it. [/quote]
:astonished: :laughing: :joy:

If The Voice is paired with Ninja Warrior, it could take younger viewers away from MasterChef.

Friday January 6
Cricket: Australia v Pakistan: 3rd test
session 1: 0.32m (no play due to rain), session 2: 0.61m, session 3: 0.74m
Stop, Search, Seize 0.42m
Movie: Lethal Weapon rpt 0.35m

Better Homes and Gardens summer 0.43m (not shown in Perth)
Hopman Cup night 6 0.34m

BBL: Strikers v Hurricanes
session 1: 0.59m, session 2: 0.76m

Saturday January 7
early end to the cricket test (big win to Australia), but since it is weekend more people will be watching.

Cricket: Australia v Pakistan: 3rd test
session 1: 0.71m, session 2: 0.77m
Movie: Marley & Me rpt 0.46m
Movie: Life is a House rpt 0.35m

Hopman Cup final: USA v France 0.36m

BBL: Renegades v Stars
session 1: 0.64m, session 2: 0.78m

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