The Future of TV - Linear vs. Streaming and beyond

From article in The Australian today

The total ad spend on metropolitan FTA networks for the nine months to September has hit $1.69 billion, up nearly 4 per cent for the year, according to industry bible Standard Media Index.

But the SMI figures also show another persistent trend: that advertisers have so far been primarily attracted to the big audiences of the FTA networks’ main channels rather than multi-channels. The vast majority of the ad spending growth in 2018 has come from the four flagship FTA channels that feature paid advertising, Seven, Nine, Ten and SBS1. The ABC is not allowed to run paid ­advertising.

Ad spending on those four channels jumped by $59m, or 4.3 per cent, to $1.42bn for the nine months to September. By contrast, spending by advertisers on the four networks’ multi-channels grew by only $1.4m, or 0.5 per cent, to $271.7m.

With this relative underperformance of the digital channels relative to the flagship channels, it is clear the major networks are stepping up efforts to extract more revenue from multi-channels, with Seven and Ten using their upfronts over the last 10 days to launch new or refreshed multi-channels to attract advertisers.

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My thoughts on the future of TV in Australia

I think that in the future we may only see each of the FTA networks offering a main channel, a specialist channel and a secondary/overflow channel. The other “channels” will probably offered under an online premium service only platform.

Infomercials will be reduced overall, as it will again become more competitive as far as the slots available. Infomercials would probably have a 2 to 3 hour block on the secondary channel between 6am and midday, with the bulk of infomercials screening between midnight and 6am.

Main channels would feature the majority of the current offerings with some additions from some of the existing multi-channels. The secondary channels would continue to offer childrens and preschool programming.

VAST services will offer up to 3 channels as well - but probably a feed of the 3 main metro channels with exit points possibly 3pm til 5pm for childrens and Preschool programming weekday afternoons, except Ten (assuming it maintains current schedule), the Ten VAST feed exit for childrens and Preschool programs will probably be between 7am and 8:30am and possibly at 4pm to 4:30pm in the afternoon

Any thoughts?

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i think fta will only be for the over 50s and the eldeerly, the rest will watch live via streaming . and by then 10 and 7 will be hd streaming

I agree to an extent… but i think that the federal government will ensure minimal services to cater to those who can’t afford or unable to secure online access. I daresay we will head back to early digital tv days at the very least with at least one supplementary channel, with Nine and Seven possibly offering an additional (specialised) service

I don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, but surely FTA is going to slowly dwindle away.
My workplace has many people in their 20’s (like myself) and a smaller handful of people in their 40’s/50’s.

Overwhelmingly when talking to others, all of the younger employees don’t watch FTA, and generally when FTA is mentioned its always spoken about in a negative light. Even myself, I watch FTA for the news, that’s it. Everything else is streaming. Unlike me, my colleagues don’t even watch FTA for News, instead following local and national news pages on social media.

FTA is dying a long, slow death. I don’t know what it’ll be in the future, but i’m sure it’ll be a shell of its current self.

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Although the commercial networks here in Australia are only accelerating it with their overreliance on slight variations of four core genres (cooking, renovation, singing/dancing/talent & dating/relationship/wedding) of “reality” TV.

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People predicted the death of radio when TV came along. Yet now there’s more radio stations than there ever were. FTA will survive in some form but like radio it will have to adapt.

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To be fair, the TV networks are adapting for the future. Most of their content (compared to 15 years ago) is Australian. That’s content that can’t be replicated elsewhere. The challenge is to make it more compelling than what’s on Netflix etc. That’s a big ask.

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The problem is the reliance of reality and no variety…If the titanic had taken notice early enough and changed course, they may have survived…when will the current channels take notice and change course…

Nail on the head…

The younger members don’t seem to understand all forms of Media have had to change as new platforms come. The entire industry has been tied to technology. If it weren’t for the printing press, there’d have been no newspapers and therefore no media (you’d be stuck with Town Criers telling you what the ‘man’ wants to tell you).
They all have survived to date, and I really can’t see that changing, especially in the Australian market where the media operates in a cartel-like situation. Come to NZ, see what no media-regulation is like!

This is true - they have had to change. But the in home competition is probably nothing like technological changes faced now by SVOD. I too would hasten to ring the death knell for linear but with the tech push going on and general ambivalence towards linear from a younger generation, it may hasten the end.

FTA and Cable TV won’t die in my opinion, as it’s in every house by now.

I read somewhere that it is only in about 30 - 35 % of homes in SA & WA.

We may not have all the multichannels that we have today but I’d say every network will continue to have at least one channel on air and maybe another as a back up alternative.

Streaming and pay TV might have taken viewers away from FTA but there will always be some people who can’t afford to sign up to these services, don’t have the skills to use them or just can’t be bothered. How many times to people just have the television on in the background and just tune and tune out while doing other things?

Maybe the FTA multichannels will be replaced by the network’s streaming service but one or two of their channels will always be there.

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Cable certainly isn’t

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I can see Pay TV just morphing into another streaming service with just a few channels for live programs like News, Sport, Business etc.

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If Stan got HBO off Foxtel in a few years time , Foxtel just ends up becoming a sports service.

I don’t think Foxtel will exist as Foxtel in the next 8-10 years. Streaming services are eating into their subscribers and all Foxtel seems to be known for now is sport and HBO.

fta will be become streamiing online iam like nqcqtv2 and only ever watch fta for the news the rest its either foxtel or catch up streaming services

fta will only be for people ages 40+ or even 50+ the rest like me will use streaming or pay tv to watch tv

i disagree with foxtel not existing in 8- 10 years. it will be around but it wont be around like it is now with iq boxes. it will evolve and become streaming only