🚨 Regional Affiliation Swap 2021

I am not the only one and will not be gaslighted on this.

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I am finding it hard to believe that this will go through.

TIme will tell I guess.

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Nine using its newspapers to press SCA for a better deal. Dunno why everyone is falling for this (again).

Note to self: dirty delete this post if proven wrong

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Exactly. WIN was a pain for nine which is why they parted ways in the first place.

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Sorry, Whats this claim based on?

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And what’s this prediction of the future based on?

Exactly.

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Time for us metropolitan-based media observers to grab the :popcorn:!

I kind of feel bad for regional viewers who potentially may have to go through another affiliation switch though. The last one didn’t really benefit viewers so I’m not expecting any possible Round 2 to either!

Yep, I agree.

If Nine are waiting to do a major relaunch of their brand, it’s probably more due to the pandemic than anything else.

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Exactly, Nine based its projections on WIN’s audience, which Southern Cross has been unable to achieve with the Nine brand, because they have no brand themselves. Southern Cross stumbled well short on the projected $500 million over five years.

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Overnights, and weekly ratings numbers - total people and key demos. SC rated lower than 10 when that was their metro affiliation and has done the same with Nine.

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Admittedly, WIN also rates lower than Ten although Bold and SNOW in particular make up for it. Peach also rates better now than it used to.

Frankly if they could, WIN would be better off with Nine’s main channel and Ten’s multi-channels leaving the scraps for Southern Cross. Won’t happen of course.

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But you said WIN delivered higher ratings for Nine than SCA has.

WIN last teamed up with Nine in 2016 - 5 years ago. FTA viewing has fallen at least 25-30% since then - so how can we make the comparison?

Also Prime7 / 7 QLD is very dominant in regional cities. They out perform 7 Metro. That’s a big reason 10 and Nine affils always under perform

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WIN delivered a higher share of the audience - total people and demos - compared to its metro partner than SC has been able to deliver. WIN delivers a similar share of audiences to its metro partner while Nine has a lower share with that mising share going to Prime.

WIN doesn’t underperform though. Last night for example it has a similar or higher total people and demo share than 10 in metro areas while SC9 was down on Nine in total people and demos.

So for example, what was the share WIN had in 2016 in total people and 25-54 compared to SCA in 2020? If you have the data

WIN does underperform 10.

If you look at 2020 survey to December, and strip out 10 Shake and Sky News, WIN/bold/peach rates lower than 10/bold/peach.

You can see it clearly if you look at December season to date shares on the Oztam and regional tam websites

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If Nine are seriously looking at this - and I still doubt it, I think it’s just to pressure SCA to not demand a significant reduction in Nine’s 50% cut from SC9 - perhaps they include in the contract no cover-ups, and insist on WIN bringing back their dotted (9WIN) logo.

Sorry, no. I’m still very doubtful.

How much of that is whatever content they’re broadcasting?
Aren’t WIN & 10 still behind Seven & Nine?

WIN News at 18:00 probably helps somewhat, but what would they do with Nine?

Exciting as change is, I still have a lot of doubt that Nine would switch back to WIN.

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and still are (WIN SA has affiliation with Seven, Nine and Ten on separate channels (the latter branded as WIN instead of WIN Ten or Ten)

Let’s be clear here as well, the meat of this article is that SCA didn’t negotiate a deal with Nine in the exclusive negotiation period and has opened the floor to WIN. Unnamed “multiple sources” doesn’t fly with me and it would be entirely plausible that this article has come out as a bargaining chip for Nine (as others have said).

“We would be silly not to explore all the options in the market.”

Frankly, this is the only quote in the article that counts. The lay of the land today is very different to what it was in 2016, so it’s entirely reasonable for Nine not to want to accept a “same again, let 'er ride” arrangement. Bringing WIN into the conversation is a savvy move on Nine’s part, but I can’t visualise the path that leads to WIN regaining the affiliation.

Would this not breach the exclusivity period that SCA had with Nine for negotiation, if it only expired today?

I’m leaving mine up. @ me if I’m wrong, I’ll get some nice barbecue sauce to eat my words with!

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Which frankly is none of Nine’s concern. They can buy the stations if they are so concerned with brand. Owning their stations, WIN should be able to brand as they please for the exorbitant numbers Nine in particular expects from its affiliations.

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Yes WIN remains the solus broadcaster, Nine and Seven are just dirty feeds from Adelaide

In a past life WIN SA’s main affiliation was with Seven - all WIN branding but Seven content. They may do that again with NNSW and Ten?

Side note for SA: if WIN pickup the main affiliation w NEC again the region may get the full suite of channels again

Totally agree, they could call it the Bruce Gordon powerhouse network if they wanted to

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