Why is metro survey one not released as usual on Tuesday?
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Possibly due to the public holiday in Melbourne and Adelaide yesterday?
Not sure why theyâve picked a Thursday release date for Survey #2 results on April 15 though, with the Easter long weekend one week before thenâŚ
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Thanks @SydneyCityTV, itâs probably a CRA/gfk excuse due to their antiquated diary system and the mediaâs ongoing and short sighted lust to be penny wise and pound foolish.
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Whether the survey results are released on a Tuesday or Thursday, I donât really care that much just as long as we get to see (and of course discuss) them.
No criticisms will be spared for poor performing stations when the results of Survey #1 are released, but to be fair I will also give credit/congratulations where theyâre due for those doing it right! 
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Nova - 1
96FM - 2
Mix 94.5 - 3
Triple M - 4
Triple M might pick up some 96fm listeners wanting heavier and modern rock. 96 has softened lately.
720 ABC should do well with Russell Woolf presenting breakfast solo.
6PR will tank hard. They have made too many unnecessary changes. So much so I donât listen to them much now.
6IX will stay around the 4 or 5 share mark.
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I reckon Triple M might beat Mix, the weird mess Mix is now is really off putting, and apart from Basilâs Shitty Breakfast and the awful night shows Triple M is sounding pretty good.
I reckon Triple J may also do really well.
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Iâm not really that familiar with the dynamics of the Perth radio market but for what theyâre worth, here are my predictions (if nothing else, at least theyâre something for people who actually live in Perth to have a laugh at):
1: 96FM
2: Nova 93.7
3: Triple M 92.9
4: Triple J 99.3
5: Mix 94.5
6: ABC Radio Perth 720
7: 6PR 882
8: 6iX 1080
The top two really could be either 96FM or Nova, but Iâm reasonably confident that Triple M 92.9 will perform better than the Hit-ised Mix 94.5!
Especially with the Hottest 100 being in Survey #1 and all, but donât the Js usually get a bump in most (if not all) metro markets for the first survey of the year due to that factor?
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Iâm surprised to see people think Triple M Perth will debut so well. Letâs not forget it took stations like KIIS1065 to take time to get to a decent ranking.
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Even taking into consideration the change of survey provider from Neisen to GfK, KIIS 1065 was pretty successful right from its first survey in 2014?
Saying âit took time to get a decent ratingâ would suggest there was a period of time that KIIS struggled, yet it was a reasonably consistent #1 or #2 FM station (behind WS) during 2014 while 2Day never really recovered.
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6IX will stay irrelevant and borderline unprofitable.
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Could SEN be looking at them? Sport on 1080AM and 6IX on digital ala 2CH.
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Survey #2 results will be released tomorrow, so here are my predictions for SydneyâŚ
1: 2GB 873
2: ABC Sydney 702
3: KIIS 1065
4: Smooth 95.3
âŚand after that:
5: WSFM 101.7 - youâd think their worst ratings of the year were during Survey #1, however Iâm not expecting them to really improve until either #3 or #4.
6: Nova 96.9
7: Triple J 105.7
8: Triple M 104.9
9: 2DayFM 104.1
10: ABC Classic 92.9
11: 2UE 954 - Iâd expect them to rise as more people are discovering the music on 954AM, but they wonât reach the pre-SEN ratings highs of 2CH unless they get a few more on-air presenters!
12: Radio National 576
13: ABC NewsRadio 630
14: Sky Sports Radio 1017
15: SEN 1170 - does anyone honestly expect them to rise above Sky Sports Radio? At the very least, Iâd be extremely surprised if they managed to outrate NewsRadio!
At breakfast:
1: Ben Fordham Live, 2GB 873
2: Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer, ABC Radio Sydney 702
3: Kyle & Jackie O, KIIS 1065
4: The More Music Breakfast Show with Bogart Torelli & Glenn Daniel, Smooth 95.3
5: Jonesy & Amanda, WSFM 101.7
6: Fitzy & Wippa, Nova 96.9
Not expecting much improvement in ratings for 2DayFM Morning Crew, if anything they may fall in the ratings as there wouldâve been some listener experimentation during their first survey.
On DAB+ the #1 station will probably be The Edge (even though itâs also available on 96.1FM, probably should be in the general Sydney AM/FM ratings but anywayâŚ), with 2CH down to the levels of SEN Track/Melbourne + NTS!
Survey #3 results will probably be more interesting from an FM stations perspective, because ARNâs recent heavy push for their stations at the Showground wonât be reflected in the ratings until then. Youâd also think those possible TVCs for 2DayFM & WSFM might finally make it onto our screens between now and June 1!
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As Winter arrives, so too will the third batch of metropolitan radio ratings results for 2021.
From a Sydney market perspectiveâŚ
*I donât think itâd be any surprise to see 2GB at #1 followed by ABC Radio Sydney.
*Smooth 95.3 will remain the top music station, despite not having as much external advertising as most other commercial FMs have recently.
*Both main ARN stations will likely be within the top five, although Iâm not expecting the recent TVCs for 2DayFM (those Morning Crew âhighlightsâ wouldnât convince me to be a listener) or Nova (not particularly memorable) to have any significant impact on the ratings of those stations.
*2UE might go up a tad, but I think itâll be at least a year until theyâre anywhere near 2CHâs pre-October 2020 ratings.
*Very little (if any) improvement for SEN 1170, even though weâre now well and truly into the NRL season. With Sydneysiders being such creatures of habit, Iâm expecting SENâs footy coverage to barely register a blip on the radar compared to the established calls on 2GB, the ABC and even Triple M.
*The Edge will remain #1 on DAB+ with 2CH continuing to fall.
Anyone else willing to make predictions of their own? Because Iâd love to have a discussion!
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Bris 4BC:
Breen 6-8%. Could be in the 5âs, they seem to be on the downward trend at bfast.
Emerson 3-5%. No better than Fordham and Ben Davis before. BC havenât had decent drive figures since Gary Hardgrave was flying high and then not renewed by nitwit management.
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I know itâs only a slim chance but it would make my year if 4KQ was No 1 in Brisbane.
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Sadly I think it will fall back down. But I hope Iâm wrong as itâs the best of the commercial stations in Brisbane atm.
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Yeah I think Sydney ratings are pretty predictable. There is a just a small battle between the music FM stations for the winner ie Smooth/WS FM/KIIS.
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Meanwhile you are spot on here. Poor old 2CH slid further down to 39000 from 63000. The Edge keeps climbing to 127000. I wonder when they will give up on 2CH DAB?
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Probably as soon as the contracts for any remaining presenters expire? The 2CH > SEN 1170 relaunch very well may go down as being one of the most ill-thought out in Sydney radio history.
Aside from that, it seems like most of the predictions I made last night werenât too far off the mark.
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The results of Survey #4 come out tomorrow and from a Sydney perspective, we very well could have a new #1 station overall for the first time since the mid-2000s. Iâll probably be more cautious though and predict that Ray Hadley & NRL coverage will be enough for 2GB to remain #1, possibly by a margin of less than 0.5%.
Coming in a very close second will be ABC Radio Sydney (with Robbie Buck & Wendy Harmer breaking 2GBâs 17 year streak as Sydneyâs overall #1 station at breakfast) followed by Smooth 95.3 in third spot with KIIS & WSFM rounding out the top five.
ElsewhereâŚ
*Triple J 105.7 will continue to rate ahead of Nova 96.9 and Triple M 104.9, as neither of the latter two offer anything massively compelling to listeners in this market.
*2DayFM will fall below ABC Classic 92.9, while the possibility of The Morning Crew with Hughesy, Ed & Erin being pulled off-air by the end of August shouldnât be ruled out.
*At the bottom of the list, 2UE might rise a bit, NewsRadio 630 and RN 576 will probably remain steady while SEN 1170 will still be last behind Sky Sports Radio.
On Sydney Digital Radio: The Edge (helped by its presence on the reasonably widely available 96.1FM) will remain #1. Coles Radio, Double J & ABC Jazz are also likely to still be up there. Either WSFM 80s or KIIS 90s will probably be the most popular of the stations not available on AM, FM or TV while 2CH DAB+ will probably get poor ratings even by Digital-only standards. And of course, weâll continue to wonder why NTS and SEN Melbourne are still on-air!
Sydneyâs current/recent COVID-19 outbreaks started just as Survey #4 was wrapping up, so I wouldnât expect any major surprises from a radio ratings perspective during this survey. However, I am willing to predict that talkback could be on the rise again (a recently declining 2GB will be hoping so anyway) at the expense of music in Survey #5.
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