Back to ABC perhaps - not sure Seven will be interested without the Olympics. They’d be a good buy for 10 in the way they have been for C4 in the UK.
The two sentences are hardly mutually exclusive.
As far as I can see, the risk spread is looking pretty good that their value will only increase over the next decade and they will be able to run at a profit. $300 mil will be sofa change in 2032.
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The problem isn’t the value of the rights, it’s the production cost added to the rights, which will likely add up to more than AUD 600 million across the term of the deal. 7 lost money on the last two Olympics because the production costs couldn’t be fully recovered.
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7 don’t have a subscription service.
9 could run multi channel coverage on their channels and stream those on 9Now and then have all the sports streamed ad free on Stan. They can monetize it way more than 7 can given their multiplatform set up.
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That’s an awfully bold prediction for a whole range of reasons - to list three of them:
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It assumes Nine will retain the NRL rights beyond 2027 and the Australian Open rights beyond 2029;
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It also assumes Nine’s ratings performance will remain steady over the next decade and they won’t go another period like they did in the early to mid-2010s; and
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It ignores (and this is particularly relevant for the non-Olympics years) that the NRL (outside of Origin & the NRL GF) doesn’t help Nine ratings-wise in the same way the AFL has done for Seven.
Assuming Stan Sport still exists in 2024, I would be shocked if some stuff isn’t only available through the platform. Not only would you think Nine would want to use it as a subscription driver (in the same way NBC used the Beijing & Tokyo Olympics to push Peacock) but also to help it mitigate some of the inevitable losses.
Would they though? Considering they aired the last 2 Summer and 2 Winter Olympics, Seven are in the best position of any of the networks to know how much Olympics rights are worth and (as such) what a financially sensible/justifiable bid is. Now, Seven might be dead wrong about their evaluation of the value of the 2024 - 2032 Olympics package and Nine might be dead right that it’s worth around $300 million. However, Nine don’t have the recent historical financial references/info that Seven does.
Not to mention that 3 of the 4 said Olympics Seven aired were held in very favourable cities from an Australian-timezone POV. Considering Seven lost significant money on the rights package as a whole, Nine are probably likely to suffer the same fate considering the only Olympics in a favourable Australian-timezone in their package will be Brisbane 2032.
While he had a few stumbles, thought Thompson did a fairly decent job calling the FINA Short Course Swimming Championships last week. As such, wouldn’t mind seeing how he would go calling the swimming at Paris 2024.
The last reporting about the 2026 Commonwealth Games rights (by the Nine newspapers) was Seven were in an exclusive negotiating period. Wonder how long said period lasts.
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I think Johnson also means because of its promotional / launch-pad platform too, certainly into the later part of this decade at least.
Look what the Aus Open and Olympics did for Seven with Desperate Housewives, Lost, Prison Break, Ugly Betty, Packed To The Rafters, Revenge not to mention many other initially but less successful-longer term shows as well. And Nine in recent years with Married among others. Also took both to No. 1 networks. And Seven’s post-Tokyo ‘halo’ recently such as 1m+ metro for every ep of The Voice and mid-1m in total audience for RFDS.
These can be a golden opportunities for a network (Nine) and their ad clients, regardless of monetisation and longevity and degree of impact.
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You have to wonder if this is 7’s longer term strategy…
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Nine post London Olympics had Kerry Packer’s War which was a huge hit drawing 2 million for both episodes.
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It’ll be more surprising if the Cricket loses to Seven and goes to Nine or 10/Paramount.
But Nine has been snagging up most of professional sporting events like the Australian Open, NRL, etc.
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This is an obvious result of Channel 7 paying well overs for the AFL, right?
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It’s a big gamble to put all your eggs in one basket for a proposition so far away and in a rapidly changing landscape. As you said yourself, who knows where viewers will be in 10 years time.
I think 7 have simply overpaid for the AFL (thanks to Nine’s bid) and we’re now seeing cutbacks as a result.
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it seems a good investment by Nine
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I agree.
IIRC Seven will pay $257 million a year, with Foxtel paying the other $387 million. As a result, Seven have only bid $55 million for cricket and given up for Olympics. Wouldn’t surprise me if Sydney to Hobart is moved off Seven as well as Cricket.
Yep. AFL paying overs for 7 meant Olympics were always going to be on 9
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They did the 2006 Commonwealth Games in Melbourne too. Both Seven and Nine are in the running
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They did for the duration of Tokyo, but the number of people who would’ve taken up the $20 offer would’ve been pretty small relatively speaking - and more to your point, you’re right that they can’t make those transactions “stick” in that space like Nine could with Stan.
No such thing as “too cheap” if it is a loss-maker. Seven have been clear they are not willing to overspend to see the network go back to the heavy debt load they were under a number of years ago.
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I wonder if Nine were expecting to win the rights with that bid. Wouldn’t it be crazy if they only put a bid in to make sure Seven paid a fair price and didn’t get a bargain.
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I’m thinking the same. Their social media has been very quiet about it.
Their own news services online this morning haven’t even mentioned it, I know it’s small numbers working at nine as it’s Christmas, but I would have thought the Today shows news update would have been uploaded on their socials page, as they have done for other stories. Or even the WWOS page.
The WWOS page has instead a cricket post, saying, “still living in your head” as it’s the classic sound of summer! 
Has this caught everyone by surprise?
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