Nothing really new hear just the gambling angle.
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‘Next to no chance’: Gambling ad reforms sink chances of a record NRL broadcast deal
After “leaking” broadcast data to (The Australian) that claims a record 25 million viewers have watched the opening four rounds of the 2026 premiership across Nine and Foxtel, V’landys said the broadcast deal for the 2028 season onwards will be done “in the next two to three months”.
“We’re in the best position now that we’ve ever been to get the best broadcast deal.”
Lachlan Gepp, a partner at law firm Hamilton Locke and an expert in gambling and sports media rights, disagrees with this sentiment.
He believes the NRL has “next to no chance” of topping the AFL’s record $3.5b, seven-year deal in the current market, predicting the league’s next broadcast deal will be “significantly less” than what the AFL snared from Seven and Foxtel.
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Is this the reason Channel 10 and Paramount are considered genuine chances of securing matches from 2028 onwards? Certainly, rival networks bidding for the rights are wary. At the very least, they say, the interest will drive up the price. Ten and Paramount were left chastened after missing out on AFL rights three years ago.
Paramount Global president Kevin MacLellan attended the NRL’s season-opening matches in Las Vegas this year, spending most of the time on the sidelines. He will be in Australia later this month as V’landys ramps up negotiations in search of a $4bn deal.
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Sounds like 10 maybe in with a chance.
It would be a game changer for the network if the obtain the rights.
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It’s the only way they survive. They can’t promote their line up because they just don’t have viewers at any time without a regular major sport that brings in the diverse eyeballs. It’s paradoxical in nature but they’ll need to be serious about this and unfortunately for them they’ll have to pay the equivalent of $1b more money than whatever anyone else is offering to be considered.
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It would be a Paramount+ led play. If they do combine services with HBO Max, then it gives a pretty irresistible content library and live sport across Australia.
While it would be beneficial for 10 obviously and would have flow on effects around their schedule, this wouldn’t be about them as much as it is P+.
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No doubt. But in a 18 team comp you’d get 9 games a week. That could see 4 games FTA simulcast with P+ (in the same ecosystem this works so you can cross promote) and 5 games exclusive to P+. Thats enough behind a paywall to attract subscribers. I think a unique selling point in such a structure would be interchangeable games for different markets so the local market can get the local team. With 10 also owning their regional stations NNSW could get Newcastle and GC games, North Qld could get cowboys and SNSW could get Canberra and Wollongong games.
They could offer international coverage across P+ in most English speaking countries in the world.
Obviously all of the above is speculation but there’s so much that can be done when all the rights are in the one ecosystem.
Agreed - the issue 10 will be not be able to get around is that they just don’t have the viewer base of other networks - so as you say they’ll have to pay overs.
They could - but I’m unconvinced this is something the NRL would actually want to onsell rather than pursue rights deals elsewhere.
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That could be used by paramount to justifying pay overs. When we talk overs the the amount has to be so significant and so large to ensure no other media group can match it. It’s a big risk but probably worth it given 10’s existential crisis.
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Yep - the issue being is NZ is a large market for the NRL. Would P+ compensate enough for that? Or would they exclude it and do rest of world (ex. NZ).
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Until it’s definitively confirmed that 10 will be included in the merged Warner–Paramount structure, I believe any claims linking the network to potential acquisitions should be regarded as purely speculative.
A Paramount, HBO Max plus sport bundle might be able to nudge $50, but unlike Kayo which has something for fans of most sports, having no AFL makes it a tough sell. It would otherwise be very hard for Paramount to sell a sub at a price that makes it valuable - Paramount+ alone would need to double or more to afford NRL, and would really suffer.
A fix for that would be non-exclusivity, doing a deal between Fox and Paramount to sell back a portion of the NRL rights to get rights to AFL and/or Cricket from Fox to bolster their streaming offerings - not having Foxtel involved at all in the NRL rights is almost a non-starter I think - even at blow them out of the water dollars, it’s a level of security for the league.
Ten become a vehicle to tick the anti-siphoning box, but I’d assume would have no exclusive matches, even Origin/Grand Final would simulcast at this point. The only reason not to is to compound the headline ratings number.
3 games FTA, 4 games shared Fox/Paramount and 2 games Paramount exclusive might make it work.
Swap 10/Paramount for Nine/Stan and I think that analysis holds. I think a streamer can get all games on their platform, but they’ll need to have some non-exclusivity to deal Foxtel in. The installed subscriber base is such a huge benefit for them, and a risk for the NRL coming off the back of some of their best ratings (even if you can’t really compare them with the changes in the system)
NRL I think would want to sign a deal with a headline number above the AFL at all costs - even if that means selling NZ rights just to then go onsell them to Sky, a headline “$10b NRL rights deal” is what they want, even if individual deals could add to more.
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thanks for that
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Having Origin shared with Foxtel will almost certainly mean those record TV audiences set during Nine’s era will not be broken.
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Sorry but any deal that involves foxtel is a disaster. The coverage is sub par (commentators woeful and calling from a monitor). They’ve had the rights too long and have enough sports to destroy and it’s way too overpriced.
P+ and/or stan sport will lot have to raise the price to $50 to be sustainable. That’s complete nonsense. There are better ways to structure the deal without foxtel.
The NRL needs a fresh start with a new deal to take the game forward.
I think if Paramount gets NRL then they will and probably have to increase their prices. Their current are cheapest at $7.99 (with ads) with premium being $17.99 (4K quality).
I can see the maybe increasing the prices by $10 for with ads & standard packages. Maybe $15-20 for the premium. So prices could range from $17.99 to $37.99.
They could also make a sports package like Stan Sports and instead of increasing it for everyone, just create a sports package add on at extra $15-$25 depending on what package people want.
But they will definitely have increase price if they get NRL just to pay for it & also increase it because they finally have a premium sport and they will want to capitalise and gain subscribers and make money
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If Foxtel don’t obtain the rights, I would say this would be the end for them in the northern states.
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Nine must be wary of overpaying for the NRL broadcast rights, lest the long-term contract becomes a financial albatross around the struggling company’s neck, a leading media analyst has warned.
“There is no arguing that the NRL is a marquee winter live sports franchise for Nine. However, we encourage management to pay heed to the fact that its current depressed market value and agitated shareholder base cannot tolerate an exorbitant jump in rights costs,” Morningstar’s director of equity research Brian Han wrote in an analyst’s note.
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If it’s an albatross for nine then any reports of seven being remotely in with a chance are not credible.
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If the NRL rights are becoming an albatross, then Nine will have to make the painful decision of dropping one of the sports when the rights expire. Australian Open tennis? Melbourne Cup? Olympic Games?
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