There will be a significant challenge in convincing the NRL to move away from Fox though - they’ve said on multiple occasions that they are more than happy with the relationship they have with the broadcaster.
A fact lost here by some is the NRL clearly values the auxiliary content Fox provide in terms of the Fox League channel with their shows and keeping the sport in the headlines but also providing pathways for people in the game get stories across (The Fan, the one on one interviews etc). That is essentially free added value for a rightsholder that they wouldn’t get on FTA (AFL has voiced its frustrations they don’t get enough of that on 7) but a Pay operator can do those sort of shows.
Adding in though, Stan have created extra rugby union shows this year to surround their Super Rugby games, so they could clearly do it for league too (plus Nine have 100% League they could in theory extend to a multi-night brand on Stan).
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I don’t think the NRL will move from Fox either barring a knockout offer.
If Stan were to claim the rights or a share of the rights, it’s not hard for them to produce nightly programming.
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The media landscape in a couple of years is going to look quite different to the previous rights deal, which is an opportunity for the likes of Stan to score a massive coup like, say, the NRL (hypothetically).
Where Foxtel has had a competitive edge in the past is that they have had the cable and satellite network to back up their OTT platforms, giving sporting bodies and viewers a feeling of certainty that they aren’t going to experience buffering issues. This is no longer a relevant advantage as the capacity of the internet in this country to provide a good viewer experience on OTT platforms has increased greatly, while Foxtel’s cable network has since closed and they seem to be starting to phase out satellite in the next decade or so.
They have also had the lions share of pay TV sporting rights historically (and an effective monopoly for quite a number of years), it has only been really in the past 5 years that they have lost a lot of their long term properties to rivals like Stan, Optus and Paramount. Viewers have now become accustomed to sporting rights being split across multiple platforms, and Foxtel/Kayo really don’t offer anything unique compared to say, Stan, aside from the satellite network which they have deprioritised and seem to be gradually phasing out anyway.
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They’ll be after a fairly significant uplift to in order to support expansion to 20 teams
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It’s says they’re currently only getting $450m from Fox/nine. Sounds pretty cheap. V’landys panicked during Covid and re-signed Fox far too quickly then had to align Nine with the leftovers out til 2027. So there really wasn’t a process. Hence they never really published the figures. Clearly they undersold the rights and now playing catch up.
They have a lot of work to do. But they really have to think innovatively to get a multi billion dollar deal post 2027. The
The first thing I’d be doing is ditching Fox.
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I haven’t been able to read the article as yet but I can sense Amazon will be sniffing around. The CWC deal in Australia but they are closing in on the NBA in the USA for a pretty sizeable package of games.
If I’m Seven, I’d almost look to try and partner with them in the absence of having a Stan/Paramount.
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Given the current economic climate, it will be very hard for the NRL to entice Foxtel and Nine to pay much more to retain their share of the broadcast rights.
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They are undervalued.
The new rights deal has to factor the expanded competition and 20 teams. That’s two more games per round and with the west coast time zone and another New Zealand team means there’s more time slot windows for the matches. All
All of that will see an increase. They’d be angling for $600m per season. Over 5 years that $3b. Not unimaginable. Nine won’t want to go with fox and will want to leverage Stan. If Stan gain the rights it assures survival in the streaming space. Amazon will want a slice of the pie it would seem as it continues to expand into sports broadcasting.
There’s a lot to play out here.
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The NRL are going to have to innovate their offering if they want to increase the value - they’re not going to get a considerable increase by simply adding two extra games to the current setup.
Nine’s position is going to be interesting - it’s hard seeing the NRL actively walk away from Fox Sports, but that may mean that Nine won’t do a deal because it would potentially exclude Stan from getting rights.
Fox will no doubt go hard - they’ve set themselves up to go big on a small number of sports, and the NRL is consistently a top-rater for them.
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I think Nine will do everything it can afford to retain the NRL rights, given the sport sets up its schedule in Sydney and Brisbane during the season.
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Nine should be speaking to Amazon and anyone else to partner to keep it.
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I’d suggest Nine/Stan would like all NRL rights as per their tennis and rugby union rights, and their bid for AFL rights.
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Echoing the C7/AFL situation of the early 2000s a bit.
Bit of irony there if 7 ended up getting a bunch of rights, particularly the NRL, because 9/10 refuse to deal with competing streamers (or Foxtel).
Doubt it’d happen though. At least for the NRL but kinda happened for cricket.
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With what I have seen recently with the faultless delivery of live streaming of cricket on Amazon prime, there could possibly be a major shakeup with regards to who has what rights in this country bypassing both Foxtel and FTA networks. Will be interesting to see what shakes out being the international streamers have big money for those sports who are only seeking to maximize their income.
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Cricket wanted Fox and I don’t think they cared much about the money. NRL cares about the money because they want to get close to the AFL figure cause of the ‘code wars’.
So I can see them going with just 9/stan or 10/paramount based on who gives more money etc.
Unlike Cricket & AFL, I think these rights will be based on the situation with who offers the most money not other aspects
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Fox League wouldn’t want to lose the NRL rights. Losing it would ignite another Super League War
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They can’t bypass FTA with NRL when it comes to cover the air broadcast but they can bypass them with streaming. That’s the loophole that the likes of Amazon are trying to exploit.
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Talking about markets, wonder if Foxtel still want to try to grow in Adelaide and Western Australia or where they see their and those areas’ futures with population rises. I recall this was key to them wanting live exclusivity for certain AFL matches there and where they and Seven were in disagreement over the whole non-Vic simulcast arrangement. I believe partially fixed now with Foxtel’s mega first half a year national exclusivity from the new broadcast deal next year.
Or would their focus still be Nsw, Vic and Qld?