The conventional wisdom is that in the absence of an overarching crisis such as a war, Australian elections are fundamentally about the economy. If the economy is strong, if people feel they are well off and will remain so, they will re-elect the government of the day. This conventional wisdom finds expression in the so-called Sawford formula (after Labor backbencher Rod Sawford), that an incumbent government will only be defeated if two out three economic indicators, unemployment, inflation and interest rates, have risen since the previous election.
On Thursday 5 September, the Redistribution Committee for Western Australia released the stateâs new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and will be used for the first time at next yearâs Federal election.
The redistribution has taken place to increase the number of WA federal divisions from 15 to 16.
A new division called Bullwinkel has been created covering Perthâs outer east and the rural Avon Valley to the east. A map of the new electorate is included in this post.
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i can see him going late Jan or early Feb.
Late Jan works because people will still be in holiday mode and switched off.
this year is pretty much off the table thanks to the qld election at the end of october, than christmas in december. he mgiht go in november but i doubt it
he wonât go all the way to may
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Given how QLD is going ATM, there is no way he would risk a November election - the defeat would be fresh in everyoneâs minds, and it would give the Liberals a chance to use that momentum for as long as they can.
May, while it might not be the best option, is probably the safest, as many are expecting rate cuts to have occurred by then.
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Queensland voters are very good at differentiating between state and federal issues. its why often youâll find they will vote very differently between the two polls. he may also want to go early during december / january when people are more switched off.
he would also hope queenslanders whould get there anger at the ALP out in october
But the issue is if the RBA doesnât cut rates by then, the Liberals can use that plus their recent wins. The public would also not be happy with a summer election, so may backfire on Albo.
Holding out till May to see if the RBA cuts rates will be Alboâs best option - if he calls an election to early and the RBA havenât cut rates, then the Liberals will come hard on him for cost of living.
âBullwinkelâ?
One remembers having to explain for months to people that the QLD state seat of Theodore was not named after a chipmunk.
The AEC hasnât learned anything after proposing the names âTuckerâ and âCoxâ in the recent past, has it? (that incident is why we still have Corangamite even though Lake Corangamite is no longer in the seat).
Interest rates are remaining high mainly due to corporate greed and the tax cuts back in June not due to government spending. Labor was in a rock and a hard place regarding the tax cuts I would not have gone ahead with them personally but the Liberals would not let their opposition to it end.
Many economists are predicting rate cuts by February at the latest.
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Thatâs generally true and Queenslanders can vote very differently at State and Federal levels.
But it doesnât always happen. And I have a feeling they wonât this time. Albo has not cut through in Queensland trust me. The government is seen as far too focused on social issues like the Voice, and not enough on the economy.
Albo really hasnât done a thing to woo Queensland voters at all. I would go so far as to say heâs ignored Queensland, particularly the regions. You can tell by the very angry reception he received at the regional forum in Townsville recently.
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Memo to Bandt and McKim: itâs one thing for unreconstructed leftists supporting 19th century obsolete socialism to hate Laborâs âcorporate matesâ âmaking out like banditsâ and assume that ordinary voters do too. With the Greens ever-stuck on around 12% PV, itâs clear that most do not.
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Problem with going too early is that new Senators only can take their seats after July 1 so Albo will have a lengthy wait for the new and reelected Senators ala 1998 or 2010.
Perhaps a silver lining for Labor is that theyâre already on about 5 seats and all of them are in the SE corner. His ignorance of the regions wonât really affect them federally as they donât hold any seats north of the Brisbane River and they could technically focus on the SE corner. Not that Iâd agree with them but it is a way out.
With the exception of maybe Blair, I donât see the other 4 seats in the SE corner at risk at all next election. The issue is their ignorance of Queensland wonât win them any further seats like Brisbane and Bonner etc, let alone Griffith and Ryan.
As for Regional Queensland, Iâd probably go as far as saying that they should probably let that ship sail. Even if Albanese was to say invest in health, infrastructure, the Bruce Highway etc too many people still would pelt rotten eggs and tomatoes at him. After 2019 there seems to be an inherent hatred of federal Labor that didnât subside even in 2022. Maybe itâs time to let them go and go for their areas of strength, namely SE Queensland.
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I can see that logic, but it would be really sad to see them give up on the regional seats altogether. Up until the last election some of them were very marginal. There should be no reason seats like Wide Bay, Hinkler and the one around Gladstone shouldnât be in play. The bigger regional centres in Queensland are actually quite big in comparison to regional cities in other states and are traditionally industrial and working class. Places like Maryborough and Gladstone, but even Rockhampton and Bundaberg should really be Labor strongholds. Theyâve lost that because they have spent no time asking what people in these electorates want. Hailing from Wide Bay myself I can tell them - they want real jobs, infrastructure and better health services. They want decent roads. With Labor in power in Queensland the Feds had a real chance to demonstrate some investment in these areas but have done absolutely nothing! But rather they cut funding for the Bruce Highway. They are frigging idiots. The State Governments new train manufacturing facility in Maryborough has gone down very well with locals, but why didnât the Feds come in with a promise to 4 lane the Bruce from Gympie to Maryborough at the same time? That part of the highway is well over the traffic volumes required for duplication, but instead QLD Labor and the Feds trade barbs over funding. It is also one of the deadliest stretches of highway in the country. These things arenât ânice to havesâ. Theyâre clueless.
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Absolutely. Given that the likes of Capricornia used to be a Labor stronghold before Kirsten Livermore retired it wasnât impossible. I can imagine Albo only interested in trying to claim Leichhardt now that Warren Entsch is retiring for good and maybe heâll fluff around Gladstone to promote the vague âFuture Made in Australiaâ scheme, even though he doesnât realise that if he took a step back and promised new jobs (which are sorely needed in places like Bundaberg, Rockhampton etc) and fix the Bruce Highway then he wonât even have to do much and the votes will come back slowly but surely.
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Who gets the threadâs votes for best Australian political cartoonist ever? My votes would be Bruce Petty, Patrick Cook and Ron Tandberg. And Cathy Wilcox after feminism broke the cartoonist sex/gender bar. In the post-war period, Ted Scorfield in the Bulletin was also a great, despite being very right-wing. His pillorying of Evatt was always very sharpâŚ
The Member for Griffith seems to be a newly founded activist.
His actions in recent times are certainly questionable. I hope Labor push hard to pull that seat back, after the state government landslide
becomes a faded memory in the minds of the locals.
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Labor would be hoping Brisbane and Griffith are vulnerable.
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AFR also mention Goldstein would go back to the LNP. Teals will likely raise mega bucks for their campaign again, Zoe Daniel is a strong competitor so interesting to see which way that goes. Tim Wilson is not the right candidate for that seat but he is a Dutton favourite apparently.
Both Albo and Dutton want to raise the social media age to 16, with Albo wanting a bill introduced before the end of 2024.
The Greens are opposed, and while I donât usually agree with the Greens I must say I do on this. I believe it should stay as is and be up to the parent, not the government. Also how are they going to enforce it, a Digital ID would not be popular with many,
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