elimination means 28 days without a new case outside quaratine.
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@ryaneco what did you decide to do?
Is there a general consensus in Australia when the international borders will open, or when hotel quarantine will stop?
Is it when 30% of the world is vaccinated? 50%? 80%?
Is it when the US and Europe are reporting only 25 cases per 100,000 people instead of the 1000 per 100,000 now?
What is the benchmark of when itâs safe to open borders and stop hotel quarantine?
I feel Australias set the bar so high, which is to be commended in some ways. Itâs amazing what the country has done. But looking forward; what are the stats that are needed to allow Australians to leave the country? Or for tourists to come in? Or for Citizens to go home without the hotel quarantine?
There seems to be some many differing definitions of elimination though
This is an interesting article on it.
I think the assumption is that it will end once enough people in australia are vaccinated to achieve heard immunity. but more agreements like the one with incoming kiwis will be developed with east asian elimination counties.
herd* 
I donât think the Government is there yet to even consider what it might look like. I think they want a travel bubble first to see how that will work. And then I would suggest it will look like you cannot enter from high risk areas without having a vaccine.
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The big, BIG issue is we donât actually know what kind of âimmunityâ the vaccine provides.
Does it stop someone vaccinated from transmitting the virus onto those who are vulnerable and canât have the vaccine?
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What is that? 50%? 75%?
Correct. The standard definition of elimination is 28 days without any local community transmission. All states bar NSWs have achieved this goal I believe.
Australia records overseas arrivals (in hotel quarantine) as seperate cases where people have contracted the virus from overseas, unless one of these cases then passed the virus onto a security worker or hotel cleaner ets. Then itâs recorded as local community transmission.
You can see why Australia maybe over reacting to only 20-30 cases compared to the rest of the world. We have the ability of quickly removing the virus from the community with quick lockdown and contact tracing, if the virus spills over from hotel quarantine.
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Those bubbles are going to be hard to get off the ground. nZ wants 28 days free. And I presume if a case popped up. They would cancel the bubble and shut it down
would depend on whatever the science says in the future, but i think it should be as close to 100% as possible.
No, most likely when Australia has vaccinated 60% of its population then weâll see overseas borders open.
Correct. Iâve read in a few places that the vaccine does not stop carriers. In fact it doesnât even stop you getting Covid. It just prepares you body to fight it off quick smart when you are exposed
Thatâs not possible. Millions of Aussies wonât get it.
and that would be fair enough, its the same standard applied to most state borders in Australia which has scored premiers landslide wins. Australians are starting to accept that the price of having no covid and being free from restrictions is travel uncertainty, easy price to pay.
Well then we will have international borders closed for a very long time, donât think anyone was expecting anything otherwise anyway. But Australia has a history of good vaccine penetration, so i dont think it will be that way.
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Gosh. I thought they were talking of opening then by the middle of 2021. I guess it may be 2022 before I fly back to Australia at this point then
While there is still rampant spread in some countries, any predictions on these are meaningless - vaccine or not. There will be a desire to have as many people vaccinated to try and build some immunity and reduce risk
You can leave the country as long as you meet one of the set (and documented) criteria for doing so
This will depend on whether HQ is still considered best practice or not
This isnt that different from all of the other vaccinations you can get - they help lower the risk and if enough people are protected it can contribute to strains of any virus or disease to die out. What we dont know is how covid can mutate to make the vaccine less effective - that only really comes with time.
If youâre an Australian citizen you can return at any time - subject to the pax caps on returns and an ability to get a flight - youâre also liable for the cost of hotel quarantine.
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Ive not looked into it so much as the hotel quarantine makes it cost and time prohibitive - not to mention the insane costs of fights. But Iâve read itâs a 6 month back log. People have had flights cancelled 6 times. 40,000 people on wait lists. Iâm In london. Most people seem ro fly on Qatar - which is bumping people off flights hours before
There are definite issues with the returning process - the low pax caps arent helping that. There are stories of people having to do 4 and 5 leg flights crisscrossing the globe to get home as well.
The costs I saw for the HQ were reasonable given its 14 days accommodation, with catering - but thatâs still a lot of money that can make returning impractical.
Even 2022 would be ambitious
Allan Tudge has said that they are only considering a limited opening for skilled workers from low risk countries in the latter part of 2021.