With the rest of the nation in (and a 13th death being recorded, another 70+ year old in Perth whoās been on a cruise ship), I can update the Guesstimate to the 7th of April. Some are now suggesting doubling the tally every 4 days although I tend to think itās closer to 3.5 days should people be inclined to think that way. Personally through these figures Iām reliant on percentages of positive test numbers rather than using something simplistic which may not be as accurate as many suggest. That said Iām still expecting these figures to rise particularly in New South Wales.
NATIONWIDE: 7282- 18202
NSW: 3499-5059
QLD 1093-2653
VIC: 1168-2728
ACT: 161-1721
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: 691-2251
WESTERN AUSTRALIA: 543-2103
TASMANIA: 107-1667
NT: 20 (12 current cases)
In other stats, almost 85% of all known cases in Queensland can be attributed to Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. Some in the northern regions are looking to shut borders to southern areas, not sure that will be supported by those that make the decisions.
Trends Iām tending to pick up from the numbers
SA look as though theyāre averaging about 30 a day in the last 4-5 days
Since about 20 March Victoria has been getting 50-70 cases per day but have the most recovered cases thus far
Tasmania yet to have a day since Iāve made projections that has seen double figure new cases, expect that to continue to be low with borders closed and comparatively easy to maintain
If the Guesstimates are to go until Good Friday, which is 2 weeks away, expect the numbers to be in a range of:
Not sure what youāre getting at thereā¦ sheās not been treated any less or more than any other NZ PM, as far as Iāve seen, here, in NZ. I do get the impression sheās become Australiaās Darling, but thatās come about perhaps in comparison to the PM in the lucky country?
And just to note; I am not a member of any Political Party, I did not vote for Labour in the last election, but I did vote for my local Labour candidate (who had no chance of getting in).
I am saying people arenāt as big a fan of her in NZ. Considering she negotiated with a far right party and subsequently elected a Deputy who is far right the respect in their country isnāt as great as it is here. This would be like Labor having a hung parliament last year and negotiating with Pauline Hanson and allowing her to be deputy PM. The respect wouldnāt be quite there for Labor either.
The USA has leapfrogged Italy and China to become the country with the most recorded cases. 15,000 new cases in the last 24 hours taking the total to 83,000.
quite concerning that afaik they are the only country with a leader that is openly relaxed about prioritising the economy over lockdowns.
History will judge Trump alongside the likes of Hitler and Stalin. He is prepared to let tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of his citizens die to play up his anti-China narrative for political purposes in an election year.
NZ First is a centrist party, not far-right. The far-right party is called ACT, traditionally allied with National (on the centre-right) and they have 1 member in parliament.
Sorry, but Winston Peters is nothing like Pauline Hanson.
We have not been seeing the same kind of exponential growth in the last few days compared to over the weekend and earlier in the weekā¦ We are now seeing consistent increases of 300-400 per day, which means doubling every 7-8 days given that we have now passed 3.000 cases. Also the last couple of days have in fact seen slight reductions in new cases. Hoping that trend continues. And if it does, it will take a lot longer for case numbers to double now that we have been going for longer.
Well it seems they wonāt need to close down shopping centres as they are already going down that path on their own accord. Well essentially everyone aside the big guys run by Wow/Wes/Myer.
A couple of other interesting things about Tasmania: (well their cases at least)
They have the lowest amount of tests carried out
I donāt think this would have the impact that the FB keyboard warriors would claim it would though.
Many of the cases have been associated with people returning from cruise ships and they did go into isolation.
There is still no evidence of community transfer.
Many people claim this is inaccurate due to the low testing rates but I do feel that thereās a lot of people just with standard cold and flu and blaming the coronavirus.
I do hope that people follow the closed border messages and donāt come on the Spirit (which is meant to be locked down, but Iām not sure) and if people do isolate when confirmed or suspected and hopefully Tasmania might be able to make it through this ok. I do think theyāre in a very good position currently compared to other states.
