I get a little frustrated by media like this, and feel for the Bureau (and others) trying to forecast.
If you read the detail in the days leading up to the weekend, it said there was a good chance of very localised heavy falls and that it would land somewhere in SEQ. That did happen, just not in Brisbane - the Gold Coast Hinterland did cop 300mm or so in parts, as it often does in big rain events.
Forecasters are damned either way with this stuff. If they underpredict, they get slammed by media and the politicians (many Mayors and even the Premier here have criticised the BoM for not providing âenoughâ warning of major events) and if they over-warn, they get attacked like this. Canât we just be happy that we avoided major flooding or damage?
Fwiw, we got about 35mm over the weekend here, with the pool getting a nice top up and the tanks getting refilled, and it wasnât stinking hot. So Iâm definitely not complaining!
Yep - This folks is why you donât trust the BOM⌠or some guy on YouTube from Brissy called âAustralia Storm Chasingâ. He screws his forecasts up aswell. I take precautions before forecasting. I use what the BOM put out - back it up on Windy. Check CAPE Index to confirm.. THEN it goes out.
I knew it was gonna be a fizzler - Northern NSW was gonna get a fair bit.. we got 1mm in Grafton
Yes, Anthony Cornelius had a full run down of the SEQ rain totals. As you say, the GC and Sunshine Coast hinterlands got a drenching with Brisbane city bringing up the rear on this occasion. This does suggest that the higher totals only occurred in areas subject to orographic lift (and so perhaps werenât as widespread as forecast) but still, itâs not a forecast fail. People should try their hand at forecasting before they criticise- this goes for any activity that requires a modicum of thinking.
With rainfall events tending more intense and more localised, and weather systems more erratic, itâs getting harder to forecast these events.
No sign of it yet, though. Still some blue skies around CBD and the radar for Victoria still quite clear. But the BOM still has a warning current for Heavy Rainfall today. So must be going to hit us with a bang
Thanks for the reminder of how uncomfortable February is on the NSW coast. Itâs been dropping to at least 17-18 here with some nights at 13; the cooler nights occur when thereâs no smothering cloud from the east. Thatâs still warm by our standards but still comfortable for the most part.
Melbourne will always get some rain through the year but in Canberra itâs NEVER guaranteed; we can be as dry as the outback in our bad years. You only need to go an hour NE to the edge of the Southern Highlands and rain prospects improve dramatically.
A tropical low smack bang in the middle of the Simpson Desert, now I have seen everything. Maybe climate change will have the perverse effect of greening the outback and cooling us down a bit that way!
A bit like how itâs phunking up the jet stream in the NH and bringing polar lows to Texas on a semi regular basis.
Itâs set to hang around as well and bring rain and storms to South Australia, including many areas that are usually bone dry in summer.
The associated trough delivered 27 mm to Bungendore in storms this afternoon. We got lucky though and some areas missed out altogether.
Describing the moments leading up to the strike, the teenager said she and her friends noticed thunder and lightning while walking out to her schoolâs sports courts.
They knew a thunderstorm was happening and still walked out.
