Analysis of the ratings system

Seven West Media CEO James Warburton said in a speech at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia in Sydney today that overnight TV ratings should be abolished, as they were outdated and did not reflect the way people watch television. He said (per SMH report):

The challenge I put to my TV peers is: let’s get rid of overnights, even for just a month, and start to tell the real story.
That’s what happens in the UK and the US where they focus on three days and seven days.

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He’s only saying that because Seven is currently tanking in overnights and only looks good on catchup as it stands.

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Media buyers split on move away from daily overnights

I thought this comment was interesting and agree with it. It media buyers don’t see overnight ratings for where they have placed their adds they start to stop thinking about those placements and look elsewhere.

“There is a danger though,” he added. “There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.”

Scriven said with the industry being so used to seeing the dailies come through, “if we turn that tap off, it would be challenging”.

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Mr Warburton called on the television industry to start releasing daily combined broadcast and BVOD data.

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Perhaps it has been exacerbated by the regional stations now carrying the same branding as metro stations? If you’re channel surfing and see the Seven or Nine watermark on the screen you can’t really tell if you’re watching the metro or regional equivalent these days unless you look for the TV’s LCN.

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Average Audience ‘000s | Survey Year to Date (YTD) Through Period 1* (06/02/2022 – 02/07/2022)

Nielsen TAM has begun reissuing data for the period 8th June–9th September, to correct Nielsen’s misallocation of spill viewing in certain overlap areas between metro and regional markets.

This meant that viewing to Network 7 (all markets where spill occurs) and to Network Nine Sydney/WIN 9 (Wollongong) was allocated to spill – and therefore not included in ratings estimates – whereas that viewing should have been allocated to Network 7 or, in the case of 9 programming, WIN.

Top line results for the period follow.

Impact on 7 Network and 5 City Metro Total TV | Top Line Results, Data Reprocess Metropolitan Total TV viewing, 8 th June–2 nd July (‘Period 1’), Consolidated 7 for Total Individuals incl. Guests.

Note: the misallocation of spill viewing for Network Nine Sydney/WIN 9 (Wollongong) did not occur in Period 1.

Overall

Total TV Audience : static at 2.57m viewers in prime time

Spill Audience of 9,000 across the day (2am-2am), or 21,000 (6pm-midnight), has been re-allocated to metro channels, representing 0.8% of all viewing in Period 1.

Average Audience ‘000s | Change in Period 1

7 Network 5 City Metro (5CM) rose

  • +9,000 (3.6%) all day (2am-2am)

  • +21,000 (3.7%) 6pm-midnight

7 Network Sydney increased

  • +7,000 (13.7%) all day

  • +15,000 (13.4%) 6pm-midnight

7 Network Primary Channel audience in Sydney increased

  • +4,000 (10.3%) all day

  • +9,000 (11.4%) 6pm-midnight

Average Audience ‘000s | Survey Year to Date (YTD) Through Period 1*

Seven Network rose

  • +4,000 (0.6%) 5CM 6pm-midnight:

  • +3,000 in Sydney; +1,000 in Brisbane

Total TV Share | Change in Period 1

7 Network 5CM rose

  • +0.7 Total TV (TTL TV) Share Points all day

  • +0.8 TTL TV Share Points 6pm-midnight

7 Network Sydney increased

    • 2.1 Share Points all day
    • 2.2 Share Points 6pm-midnight

7 Sydney Primary Channel share increased

  • +1.2 Share Points all day

  • +1.2 Share Points 6pm-midnight

7 Network Brisbane share rose +0.5 points 6pm-midnight

7 Network Melbourne share rose +0.3 points 6pm-midnight

7 Network Perth share rose +0.1 points 6pm-midnight

No change for 7 Network Adelaide

No change for 9, 10, ABC, SBS and STV channels/networks in all markets

Total TV Share | Survey Year to Date (YTD) Through Period 1*

7 Network 5CM increased 0.1 Share Point

  • +0.4 in Sydney

    • 0.1 in Brisbane

Programming | Change in Period 1

97% of all free-to-air (FTA) programming remains unchanged

0.09% (87 programs out of a total of 18,352) increased by >10,000:

  • the highest was to a single episode (30/6/2022) of Home and Away in Sydney, gaining +27,000, so moving from 90,000 to 117,000

7 News Sydney (Sunday to Saturday) increased by just over 16,000 during the period

  • No change to other markets
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Reprocessed data - Period 2

Nielsen TAM is reissuing data for the period 8th June–9th September 2022, to correct Nielsen’s misallocation of spill viewing in certain overlap areas between metro and regional markets.

This meant that viewing to Network 7 (all markets where spill occurs) and to 9 Network Sydney/WIN 9 (Wollongong) was allocated to spill – and therefore not included in ratings estimates – whereas that viewing should have been allocated to Network 7 or, in the case of 9 programming, WIN.

The second of three batches of Nielsen’s reprocessed, corrected data (covering 3rd–30th July) will be released to Third Party Software Suppliers (TPSS) for provision to data users on 7th November. The final batch will be released on 21st November (31st July–9th September).

OzTAM data subscribers should reach out to their TPSS for advice on when they expect the reprocessed data will be available in their software.

Top line results for the period follow.

Channels and markets affected by the re-issue date range (3rd – 30th July)

  • 7 Network channels in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, and spill-in Seven Network channels from Wollongong, Newcastle, Gippsland, Northern Rivers and WA.

  • Note : this period includes two days of the Birmingham Commonwealth Games (29th & 30th July).

Channels and markets affected by part of the re-issue date range (14th – 30th July)

  • 9 Network channels in Sydney and spill-in 9 Network channels from Wollongong.

Impact on 7 Network, 9 Network Sydney/WIN (Wollongong) and 5 City Metro Total TV Top Line Results, Data Reprocess

Metropolitan Total TV viewing, 3 rd – 30 th July (‘Period 2’), Consolidated 7 for Total Individuals incl. Guests

Overall

  • Total TV Audience : static at 2.59m viewers in prime time

  • Spill Audiences of 11,000 across the day (2am-2am), or 25,000 6pm-midnight, have been re-allocated to metro channels, representing 0.9% of all viewing in Period 2.

Average Audience ‘000s | Change in Period 2

  • 7 Network 5 City Metro (5CM) rose

○ +10,000 (4.0%) all day (2am-2am)

○ +23,000 (4.0%) 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Sydney increased

○ +7,000 (12.7%) all day

○ +17,000 (14.2%) 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Primary Channel audience in Sydney increased

○ +5,000 (11.6%) all day

○ +11,000 (12.6%) 6pm-midnight

  • 9 Network 5 City Metro (5CM) rose

○ +1,000 (0.4%) all day (2am-2am)

○ +2,000 (0.3%) 6pm-midnight

  • 9 Network Sydney increased

○ +1,000 (1.2%) all day

○ +2,000 (1.1%) 6pm-midnight

Average Audience ‘000s | Survey Year to Date (YTD) through Period 2*

  • 7 Network rose

○ +4,000 (0.6%) 5CM 6pm-midnight:

○ +3,000 in Sydney; +1,000 in Brisbane; +1,000 in Perth

  • 9 Network 5CM: no change

Total TV Share | Change in Period 2

  • 7 Network 5CM rose

○ +0.8 Total TV (TTL TV) Share Points all day

○ +0.9 TTL TV Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Sydney increased

○ + 2.1 Share Points all day

○ + 2.3 Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Sydney Primary Channel share increased

○ +1.4 Share Points all day

○ +1.4 Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Melbourne share rose +0.3 points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Brisbane share rose +0.5 points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Perth share rose +0.3 points 6pm-midnight

  • No change for 7 Network Adelaide

  • 9 Network increased

○ +0.1 Share Points 5CM 6pm-midnight

○ +0.3 Share Points in Sydney 6pm-midnight

  • No change for all 10, ABC, SBS and STV channels/networks in all markets

Total TV Share | Survey Year to Date (YTD) Through Period 2* | 6pm-Midnight

  • 7 Network 5CM increased 0.2 Share Points

○ +0.4 in Sydney

○ + 0.1 in Brisbane

○ +0.1 in Melbourne

No change in Adelaide or Perth

  • 9 Network 5CM: no change

  • No change to all 10, ABC, SBS and STV networks and channels

Programming | Change in Period 2

  • 96% of all FTA program results remain unchanged

  • 0.1% (or 120 programs from around 20,400 per market; 100,000+ in total) increased by >10,000:

  • the highest was approx. 41,000 (Seven News – Sat, on the opening weekend of the Commonwealth Games)

  • No change to other markets

*06/02/2022 30/07/2022, Excluding Easter (weeks 16 & 17)

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Reprocessed data - Period 3

Nielsen TAM is reissuing data for the period 8th June – 9th September 2022, to correct Nielsen’s misallocation of spill viewing in certain overlap areas between metro and regional markets.

This meant that viewing to Network 7 (all markets where spill occurs) and to 9 Network Sydney/WIN 9 (Wollongong) was allocated to spill – and therefore not included in ratings estimates – whereas that viewing should have been allocated to Network 7 or, in the case of 9 programming, WIN.

The final of three batches of Nielsen’s reprocessed, corrected data (covering 31st July – 9th September) is being released to Third Party Software Suppliers (TPSS) for provision to data users today.

OzTAM data subscribers should reach out to their TPSS for advice on when they expect the reprocessed data will be available in their software.

Top line results for the period follow.

Channels and markets affected by the re-issue date range (31st July – 9th September)

  • 9 Network channels in Sydney and spill-in 9 Network channels from Wollongong.

Channels and markets affected by part of the re-issue date range (31st July – 29th August)

  • 7 Network channels in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, and spill-in Seven Network channels from Wollongong, Newcastle, Gippsland, Northern Rivers and WA.

  • Note : this period includes 10 days of the Birmingham Commonwealth Games (31st July – 9th August) and 11 days of no change (30th August – 9th September).

Impact on 7 Network, 9 Network Sydney/WIN (Wollongong) and 5 City Metro Total TV Top Line Results, Data Reprocess

Metropolitan Total TV viewing, 31 st July – 9 th September (‘Period 3’), Consolidated 7 for Total Individuals incl. Guests

Overall

  • Total TV Audience : static at 2.56m viewers in prime time

  • Spill Audiences of 11,000 across the day (2am-2am), or 27,000 (6pm-midnight), have been re-allocated to metro channels, representing 1.0% of all viewing in Period 3.

Average Audience ‘000s | Change in Period 3

  • 7 Network 5 City Metro (5CM) rose

○ +9,000 (3.3%) all day (2am-2am)

○ +23,000 (3.5%) 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Sydney increased

○ +7,000 (12.1%) all day

○ +17,000 (12.9%) 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Primary Channel audience in Sydney increased

○ +5,000 (11.1%) all day

○ +11,000 (11.2%) 6pm-midnight

  • 9 Network 5 City Metro (5CM) rose

○ +2,000 (0.8%) all day (2am-2am)

○ +5,000 (0.9%) 6pm-midnight

  • 9 Network Sydney increased

○ +2,000 (2.7%) all day

○ +5,000 (2.9%) 6pm-midnight

Average Audience ‘000s | Survey Year to Date (YTD) through Period 3*

  • 7 Network rose

○ +4,000 (0.6%) 5CM 6pm-midnight:

○ +3,000 in Sydney; +1,000 in Brisbane

  • 9 Network 5CM rose +1,000 (0.2%); change due to Sydney +0.5%

Total TV Share | Change in Period 3

  • 7 Network 5CM rose

○ +0.8 Total TV (TTL TV) Share Points all day

○ +0.9 TTL TV Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Sydney increased

○ + 2.2 Share Points all day

○ + 2.4 Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Sydney Primary Channel share increased

○ +1.5 Share Points all day

○ +1.5 Share Points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Brisbane share rose +0.5 points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Melbourne share rose +0.2 points 6pm-midnight

  • 7 Network Perth share rose +0.1 points 6pm-midnight

  • No change for 7 Network Adelaide

  • 9 Network increased

○ +0.7 Share Points in Sydney 6pm-midnight

○ +0.2 Share Points 5CM 6pm-midnight

  • No change for all 10, ABC, SBS and STV channels/networks in all markets

Total TV Share | Survey Year to Date (YTD) Through Period 3* | 6pm-Midnight

  • 7 Network 5CM increased 0.2 Share Points

○ +0.5 in Sydney

○ + 0.1 in Brisbane

  • 9 Network 5CM increased 0.1 Share Points, change due to Sydney +0.1 Share Points

  • No change to all 10, ABC, SBS and STV networks and channels

Programming | Change in Period 3

  • 97% of all FTA program results remain unchanged

  • 0.1% (or 1,772 programs from around 30,400 per market; 150,000+ in total) increased by >10,000:

The peak lift was approx. 45,000 (Seven Sydney Birmingham Commonwealth Games Day 3 Evening)

*06/02/2022 09/09/2022, Excluding Easter (weeks 16 & 17)

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Universe estimates for Year 2023

These are the estimated populations for the OzTAM markets for 2023 with previous years also listed plus the change from 2022.

Melbourne is expected to remain the largest market with Brisbane’s population expected to increase the most.

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In a previous post, everyone agreed that all that mattered in TV was the under 50 audience as the over 50s don’t have any purchasing power

However the discussion today is all about total numbers lol

I think you need to be a bit more consistent and just focus on demographics as that’s all that matters. Ten is the clear winner of the night

What the focus is is going to depend on the type of program. The AO has a broad appeal, so it makes sense to focus on total viewers and total streaming numbers. The total numbers are down from last year, but a point to remember is Barty played on night 1 last year, whereas there wasn’t the same drawcard last night. Tonight should be better with Djokevic and de Minaur playing, even without Kyrgios.

Compare that to the Bachelors. It has a younger audience, so it makes sense to focus on the demos plus streaming as linear viewership skews older. You are right in saying that they are a winner of the night and they will do well again in the streaming numbers.

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I understand your logic.

However there are some people on here who would claim that anyone watching the tennis who is over 50 is of no value to advertisers. This is ridiculous because you only have to look at the type of ads running in the tennis and the target markets for those products.

I don’t see too many ads for nightclubs or LED fairy lights on Channel Nine lol.

It’s not that they have no value, it’s that they have less. Research has suggested that people over 50 are less likely to change brands/are loyal.

So sure, the over 50’s are still valuable to a lot of brands.

The networks, however, can charge a premium for shows that rate well in the key demos. Especially because these age groups are harder to attract to FTA these days.

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In 2023, who do you think has more purchasing power - a 22 year old or a 55 year old?

I understand the point you are trying to make here. But from a marketing standpoint, there is an important caveat. 55 is largely seen as the point where expenditure begins to decline. Now if I’m an advertiser, a 22yo provides me with a greater opportunity to build a long term customer as they age into the peak spending group than a 55yo. In saying that, as the population begins to age, I’m sure it will change and expand.

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Yeah I really think it has changed now. The latest research shows that the person with the most power in the economy is the 55 year old woman.

The average 25 year old has much less purchasing ability than ever before and will struggle to save a deposit for a house let alone own one.

Interesting times.

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I think you’d be surprised how much money we have :rofl: