Supermarkets and Retail (2015-2025)

Costco’s launch in Australia has been a very slow rollout since 2009.

5 stores in Melbourne
4 stores in Sydney
1 Store in Canberra
1 Store in Newcastle
1 Store in The Gold Coast
2 Stores in Brisbane
1 Store in Adelaide
2 Stores in Perth

Basically an area greater than 500k in population can justify a store.

They are apparently up to $5b in revenue which is quite something from 17 stores. They have essentially overtaken BIGW in revenue.

Aldi is around $13b~

They will have limited growth however, and they will need to grow with the big metros as they start to grow out. Adding more in large metros too close will just pull revenue from another.

Not sure where else they can go, Pakenham makes sense. Werribee might be another good option. Sydney is a bit tight on the land front, around Mascot might be an option. Brisbane could do with another around Carindale, Chermside.

Geelong is an obviously another area, but they have avoided so far while still growing Melbourne, so seems unlikely, I still think that region will grow significantly later on so perhaps in the medium term.

Surprised Canberra got a store.

Costco has seemingly wound back its expansion plans - 2 years ago, they were talking about 20 stores in 5 years, now it seems to be 5 stores by 2030. I wonder if this is to do with the difficulty of getting planning approvals (their value and size often see them going to State Government planning rather than Councils)

I recall that they’d said somewhere in the vicinity of 200,000 people is the kind of population they were looking to serve (noting that they’ll pull from a fairly large catchment, much larger than a Coles/Woolies/Aldi ever would)

Allegedly Geelong and Wollongong are high on their list.

Having recently left commercial leasing industry, it’s a real issue. I’ve seen some Woolworths sites take up to a decade to get approval. If they can get approval and construction started in 5 years anywhere I will be impressed. Queensland was the worst.

I was advising on one large supermarket site in 2018. Still not built going through the nonsense approval process. They still want the site but nobody knows when. The sign is still sitting on the vacant land, coming soon.

So backwards here. Don’t get me started on some councils. It’s much easier to go chasing a competitor lease these days, however bit hard for Costco who requires a significant sized complex.

Townsville and Cairns would be interesting. They might have 200k people but they have huge pull from the regions, some of our highest trading supermarkets sit in these two cities. They have much higher basket sizes which would work for the Costco model.

I would say any area that has a centralised population of up to 300k could accommodate a store.

Adelaide could get a second store too.

Woolworths was planning to build a new store in a business park in Burwood East in Melbourne, near the busy intersection of Burwood Highway and Springvale Road. Two years on there have not been any updates.

The Burwood East store will have been located between existing Woolworths supermarkets at Forest Hill and The Glen.

It doesn’t help that even a ‘neighbourhood’ supermarket is now costly enough to trigger additional planning requirements (such as regional or state referral), let alone the need for significant referral to government agencies.

I’ve seen a couple that have been able to get approval and start construction within 5 years (in NSW), but they are a little unicornish.

Part of Costco’s issue is that they can’t find the space needed that is also appropriately zoned - at least in NSW, they need one of specific set of zones that don’t tend to be widely used (or already have occupations)

Geelong’s population? Nearly 300,000. Not quite big enough yet to sustain a Costco store.

I would also imagine as well Geelong residents opposing the construction of a new Costco store as it would hurt local businesses in town. Costco enters the market and those shops are out of business. So yeah, don’t expect a Costco to hit Geelong anytime soon. Maybe never.

In fact I think Costco actually better suited for the capital cities. Think of Costco as a luxury, something people can only go to if they go to the big city. The Gold Coast is sorta capital in its own right so it makes sense they should have a Costco. Geelong having a Costco? Nup. Geelong can go to Melbourne for Costco.

Because Canberra is Australia’s capital city. Not a regional one.

It has been stated before that Costco are looking for land near or around Geelong. I would say they will be looking around northern parts of Geelong to capitalise on the growing Werribee suburbs.

What are you on about?

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If it wouldn’t be immediately overwhelmed on traffic volume, Avalon would probably work - those airport adjacent land areas would be a good bypass to many of the planning issues.

It’s really strange to try and push an issue with local shops as a reason to be against a Costco - no one’s picking between a local small business and costco. For lots of small businesses, their scale means suppliers won’t cut them nearly as good of a deal as the bulk pricing at costco can, so for many it would be something that assists them to be competitive with the major chain stores.

Worked an absolute charm when Costco rolled out in Perth capitalising on Airport land.

yeah ive heard rumors they tried taking over the abandoned automall site at brisbane airport but the airport didn’t want to let it be used because they were unsure of expansion plans prior to 2032

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