I cant see it happening, there is simply not enough long-term political will to let it happen - its going to take 15 years to get approvals and designs finalised (meanwhile the cost to construct continues to escalate) and probably that long to build.
Unless someone can find a way to unpoliticise the project - you simply wont get every level of Government and the myriad of governing parties to simultaneously hold the same position on the project for the length of time required to deliver it.
The first step just has to be land acquisition - it will never get cheaper to do that part. Identify the route and secure it, lock in land around the stations for future value capture high density development.
Thereās just no future in there being the level of air travel between our major capitals as there is currently, at the moment you can fly Melbourne to Sydney for $100, but in 50 years I donāt think air travel will be able to transition to sustainable fuels or electric flight at anywhere near the affordability it is now. A domestic air levy should form some of the funding structure.
Keeping such a big country connected in an environment with substantially more expensive flights needs investment in the medium term.
If you stage the route right, I think you can keep up some momentum - thereās so many sections that are so much slower than they need to be, and can create sub projects that deliver something sooner to improve things. Getting to 160km/h+ on the Albury line, a fast Sydney > Newcastle link, and something of similar improvement for the section near Brisbane (I just donāt know the needs that well up there)
As a frequent rail traveller between Newcastle and Sydney, it just saddenx me that Iāll probably never see it happen.
Something else will probably come along and make it redundant, drone facilitated travel or something like that.
I really do wonder how the SRL is going to be funded. A large chunk is going to need to come from the Feds, and they certainly have been more conservative with cash in recent years around these larger projects, not to mention Dutton has said he isnāt funding any of it.
It will probably take a few hundred years to build. I guess the original idea was Belt and Road to prop it up.
Thereās not really many huge spikes in capital requirements - so it can just be a yearly budget item. The cost might be very large if you look at the total dollar spend, but the estimated peak yearly spend is $3.8b in 2030 for the Eastern stage.
Speaking of SRL, the decision to lump in the Airport rail link as āSRL Airportā makes zero sense.
Theyāre both separate systems (commuter trains vs automated rapid transit) and the Airport link wonāt even form part of the āloopā shape around the city.
The optics of the Federal government funding a large chunk of it would be terrible- especially at a time where so many other parts of the network are so underfunded.
As far as Iām concerned- if money wasnāt an issue Iād be all for it. The main problem I have with it is that there are so many other projects and parts of the Melbourne (and Victorian) public transport network that are crying out for upgrades and improvements that wouldnāt even cost a fraction of what this will cost.
I do admire what itās trying to achieve (in making it easier to get from one area of Melbourne to another without going through the city) but unfortunately money doesnāt grow on trees (and especially not with the state of the Victorian budget) and I donāt think this particular project should be a priority as it stands.
Granted, there is definitely a benefit if you want to go orbitally across Melbourne from say the south to the east (such as from Cheltenham to Box Hill)- but if youāre going from say, Cheltenham, to somewhere in the west or north, thereās going to be little time saving from the SRL than if you were to go through the city anyway (especially once the metro tunnel is up and running).
There is a definite need to improve orbital public transport links in Melbourne and connections between different lines- however what would make more sense to me would be to build some new light rail/tram lines along some of the main arterials (similar to how the 75 tram runs down Burwood Highway or the 86 runs along Plenty Rd out at Bundoora) and linking up with different train lines along the way.
I agree, Iām not anti all these big projects, I mean, we have seen what happens when we do nothing, and population explodes, but itās more a money issue for me. We have seen the disastrous position the states finances are in, and we have a new level of financial caution in Canberra, quite simply the days of huge handouts are over.
I also think, even as the federal governments forward financial position improves over time, Itās hard to see anyone investing back into this project, is countless other national projects they would get better bang for buck. Essentially this project would require a large chunk of any investment funds available, canāt see it happening, itās just way too much, other states would kick up a stink.
At the risk of coming across as a nark, but Iāll believe it when i see it.
I hope it does come to fruition because unless you are lucky enough to get a limited stops train. The train trip between Newcastle and Sydney is bruital.
Agree, the new Mariyung trains make it a bit less painful. A bit quicker than the grey trains (Tangara or earlier).
A limited stops version of that (eg no stops on the Central Coast) would be great.