My prediction is total FM/AM shutoff by the end of January 2026. Don’t listen to the fuddy-duddys. It’s DAB’s time to shine 
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next month?
Yep. The future is here and it’s 32kbps
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Just look at the big networks constantly cutting costs because they can’t generate enough revenue. One of the major reasons we get a whole wave of new licences 20-30 years ago is because DMG saw a market opportunity and they hired Paul Thompson to lobby the Government to make more licences available. Anyone else could do that today, but they’re not, because it’s hard to see how a new network could possibly generate enough profit to make the whole exercise worthwhile.
Actually I read somewhere that while TV ad revenue was forecast to fall to the level of radio ad revenue over the next 5 years or so, radio ad revenue was forecast to hold steady.
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DAB+ showed much promise, but now its future is dubious
I remember many of us saying DAB+ would just be another ‘AM Stereo’ and in many ways that’s been the case.
But for whatever reason, DAB+ has survived much longer than Stereo AM.
While I know plenty of people with DAB+ radios and car radios, I wonder about the future of this technology.
When will it die?
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I hope it doesn’t, at least not anytime soon. Despite the ordinary sound quality of most stations, it’s still worthwhile having in my view.
EVs could be DABs saviour, given AM radio doesn’t work in full EVs very well.
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Digital broadcasting (both radio and TV) had the potential to be transformational, but incumbent protection has really limited it.
Requiring current market occupants to drive the take-up of the technology was never going to work in smaller markets.
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Judging by the way things are going, AM will die before DAB+ will. In a pure digital future I’d like DRM to replace analogue AM in the same band. Otherwise my opinions have not changed on DAB in general, if it isn’t bitstarved, it provides an equivalent if not superior experience to FM - with the caveat on DAB+ needing at least 96kbps bitrate, preferably 128kbps to shine.
DAB also needs to really run in the currently used FM band (87-108MHz) to provide a true replacement for digital broadcasting, purely from a propagation and cost effectiveness standpoint.
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You do realise 95% of Australia doesn’t have DAB. Only Metro has it. Think of all the jobs the regional presenters will loose. You do know a fair few people up here in the Northern Rivers would be fairly angry loosing their local station (e.g. 2GF, 2HC, 104.7, ZZZ, Loving Life 103.1). I mean plenty of farmers tune in to ABC Local Radio still. Whether it’s for Macca on a Sunday Morning or for Emergency Info during floods & fire. Switching off AM & FM would result the loss of Emergency Information in regional areas (E.g. Coutts Crossing, Nymboisa, Tabulam, Moree, Inverell etc)
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Was being sarcastic, almost any optimism about DAB is too much imo, I’m with you
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For those reason AM in Australia is safe for now. Perhaps it will eventually be monopolised by ABC local stations and narrowcasters (which would be unfortunate).
Which means 67% of Australia can access DAB.
The plan seems to be progressing more or less towards getting all regional radio onto FM, and then using FM + DAB for the fact that you won’t be able to get all of the metro services off AM.
An AM switchoff is something achievable in the next decade - but there’ll never be a reason to switch off FM, and potentially DAB could be switched off once demand for FM frequencies falls, as the general demand for radio diminishes.
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Time will tell I guess
Yep I agree with this. Actually if you add in the Gold Coast it’s over 70% can access DAB. I think an eventual DAB switch off would only occur once the vast majority of radio listening is online. And that’s a long way off if we look at the UK. Ironically though, the lack of DAB in regional areas will likely accelerate the migration to online.
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Here’s my prediction: Things basically continue as they are. FM and AM persist as they have done for a long long time despite decades of doomsayers. Some technology just works. DAB+ continues to be used as a royalty loophole, broadcasting tinny sounds to nobody. Internet continues to dominate, but more and more people start to turn their back on it as doomscrolling fatigue and resentment becomes worse. Radio’s niche persists. That’s another 30 years at least imo, pending some massive unforeseen crisis like a war
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Yeah a world war might help prolong the survival of traditional radio as the internet never have been through a major global war. Let us hope it doesn’t happen.
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I think it will survive anyway but yes, tbh people are already starting to see the positives of a medium that is not tracking you and cannot know who or where you are. A war would only hasten that. Shortwave may well make a comeback. Have a listen to SW now and it’s mostly China, a lot of it in English. They are smart. They know the internet won’t last forever and want their soft power broadcasts already up and ready.
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The ratings don’t suggest it’s to nobody
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