Agree. I think Brisbane might be more likely than Sydney and Melbourne too. They might do it as a cleanup of the band from Noosa down to Lismore. I know the greater Sydney area has issues too but SEQ is a mess and probably has more significant overlap issues. I don’t think they’d find room to convert all AMs though. Perhaps 1 for the ABC and 1 commercial, potentially with an auction. I also wouldn’t rule out them doing something with River 94.9. It could even be asked to move to a 0.4 spacing to free up another frequency for Brisbane.
I think for Perth it might be option 1 although I wouldn’t rule out ABC only getting 1. That might set the scene for what happens in Adelaide and possibly Brisbane.