State/Territory Politics

ABC now projects swing at 1.5%, with Labor ahead by 367 votes.

Here’s what Antony Green has to say about it:

Declaration votes continue to behave very differently from election day votes. With around 6,300 declaration votes counted, the Liberal Party are polling 55.3% against only 46.0% on polling day.

My estimate on Sunday was that the Liberal Party needed to get 56.0% of the declaration vote to win and at this stage they are falling short. There may be 2,000 votes yet to count and the Liberal Party would need 59% to win.

Source: Dunstan By-election 2024 Results - ABC News

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Bass is fine as a federal seat but really confused as to why Braddon got a swing to Gavin Pearce considering he’s one of those conservative wreckers who threatened to quit if Bridget Archer didn’t stand aside. What’s so good about him?

Tasmanian Liberals seems to be just as polarised as SA’s. The moderates are sensible, almost centre-left progressive, but the conservatives are bordering nutso.

Update: Labor has now won Dunstan - Lib’s cannot win with the few votes that are now left to count. Swing is around 1.5 to the ALP.

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Well that was a ride. Even with the now minuscule swing to Labor than initially, what an absolute humiliation for the Liberals and David Speirs. In times of cost of living issues and no real way out of ramping issues in SA hospitals, you’d think the voters would be out with baseball bats to the incumbent. Nope Labor achieved the unthinkable and took a Liberal blue-ribbon seat from them, breaking a 116 year precedent.

The ‘No to everything’ and cultural warring strategies and pushing the likes of conservatives in the party to higher up positions is really working well eh SA Liberals? You can’t say it’s Labor’s fault when you’re the same group that promoted Alex Antic to the top of the senate ticket and want Nicolle Flint back to run in Boothby next year.

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This is what happens when you try to shout “NO” as loud as you can but offer not alternatives or solutions.

She’s not the most popular candidate. In her first election in 2016, the seat became a marginal liberal seat again, and the margin was further reduced in 2019.

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Sally Capp announced this morning that she would not seek a third term as Melbourne Lord Mayor. She would step down in June after six years in the role. Deputy Nicholas Reece would be acting Lord Mayor until council elections at the end of October.

McRae was due to be sworn in as Port Hedland councillor on March 11, but due to being overseas the ceremony will occur at a later date.

Goodbye and good riddance! Definitely time for some fresh blood.

Highly doubt we’ve seen the last of her, I think she’ll be back as an independent candidate either state or federal, she has great media skills.

I can see her pushing an Independent spot next election. Timing all seems to line up.

Not sure if she is that popular however. Certainly I can’t say I’ve heard anyone jump for joy whenever her name is mentioned be it workplace to at home. She has done stupid things with the city around roads and other things, not a fan.

Mayoral roles are general a posioned chalice. The Geelong Mayor ran for Corangamite for the LNP last Federal election, that was a disaster. Frankston Mayor ran recently, didn’t connect with the voters. People don’t trust councils, end of story.

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City of Port Adelaide Enfield’s former Mayor Gary Johnson had a few runs at state parliament, first as an independent, then for SA Best.

Perhaps she needs to look closer to home rather her media boss. Yes, herself, and she needs to go.

Now compare her performance to the Victoria commissioner’s public dealing with the Samantha Murphy case.

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Given most of Corangamite is more Surf Coast than Geelong she was never going to have a chance against the incumbent who used to be the Surf Coast Mayor and was riding on a sophomore surge plus Labor momentum.

She would’ve been better going for Corio but she wouldn’t have a chance against Richard Marles anyway. Maybe she could try South Barwon to take on Darren Cheeseman, but then she was a failure going for Bellarine which is her home base last time round so she’s probably a failure all-round in these elections.

The Department of Jobs Skills, Industry and Regions, meanwhile, has locked its X account and confirmed it will soon close it.

It’s likely Department of Health and Department of Transport accounts will be the only ones to remain because they provide daily updates on things such as public transport disruptions and public health information.

Surprising news out of my neck of the woods today. Adam Marshall resigning from state politics:

Two weeks after the Tasmanian election and we’re finally at the pointy end of sorting out the last few seats. Redistribution and preferences only started on Tuesday after the cutoff for postal vote arrivals and most electorates have now done at least 50 counts and are down to about 10 candidates left for the 7 seats.

Most of the parties have been decided however Braddon is still not sure about the 7th seat with an independent who has had several tilts at different levels and dislikes the two party system against the Liberals hoping for a fourth seat in Braddon.

Braddon results - 2024 State Election Tasmania (tec.tas.gov.au)

For those who love watching the numbers the TEC have the spreadsheets now for each of the counts and you can see where people’s preferences went as candidates started being excluded.

With State Labor, former Kingborough Mayor, Dean Winter, has announced that he is going to run for the party leadership. He was subject to a controversial campaign against his preselection for the 2021 election where he was not preselected but eventually got in after Rebecca White fought for him.

Dean Winter in from the cold, but at what cost to Tasmanian Labor party? - ABC News

Labor’s Dean Winter to seek leadership after party’s election loss under Rebecca White in Tasmania - ABC News

Northern Tablelands is the safest seat in the NSW lower house, but it’s no guarantee that the Nats will retain it at the by-election.

He’s built a lot of support in his electorate by acting more like an independent than a member of a party - it has ruffled a few feathers within the party (at both State and Federal levels), but it not only has made him quite popular it seems to have worked getting some attention from the Minns Government for a number of issues in his electorate.

It will cause some headaches for the Nats, I doubt they have someone lined up (Marshall had been considered a long-term prospect and possibly a future leader at the state level and possibly a replacement for Barnaby federally) which will probably open the door to someone else (Labor probably) making a significant move towards snatching the seat.

I am not a huge fan of the Nationals (particularly at a federal level), but I had absolutely no reservations in voting for Adam Marshall. What has made him so popular here is his ability to just get stuff done. He has taken up that mantle of a semi-independent and fought hard for issues important to the community, particularly around healthcare and infrastructure. He has also worked hard to be visible in the community. You take one look at his Facebook page, and its filled with him attending every major community event and fundraiser, and showcasing local people and businesses.

I sure there were a few panicked people at Nationals HQ yesterday hearing the news. He has long been considered the successor to Barnaby for the federal seat (and there were internal sources quoted by the SMH yesterday saying it is still a possibility). I don’t think they would have been planning on replacing him so soon on a state level, and it leaves the Nats struggling as to what to do federally.

If it is going to be anyone, it will be an independent. Labor hasn’t polled above 20% in the electorate since the 1990s (granted, much of that period has been dominated by two highly popular local members: Marshall and Richard Torbay before him) and the Greens at best hit around 5% of the vote. Now yes, Marshall will have an enormous personal vote which will affect things, but the swing necessary to get Labor anywhere near taking the seat would require a near collapse of the Nats vote and a hard shift in the politics of the Northern Tablelands.

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I wonder how much of this electorate is a ‘If it has National Party written next to it, we’ll write a 1 in the box’ category. Given Marshall (who appears to be surprisingly moderate compared to the rest of the mob at the NSW Nationals) was popular and the Nationals rule the area Federally and locally you’d expect that it’s not a matter of if but who the Nationals put up that will inherit the seat (albeit with a small swing against them).

I mean, people voted for Barnaby Joyce in New England how many times over after his sleaze affair and his citizenship saga just because he was the National member. You’d think the Nationals wouldn’t take their electoral support for granted but then again…

I mean, if Barnabus wanted out of the raucus of Federal politics he could always do us a favour and resign from New England (and cause another by-election lol) and contest Northern Tablelands. Maybe he’ll find hanging around his farm in Danglemah more appetising than getting pissed in Braddon.

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