Ratings Predictions

I can unserstand that at other times of the day. But at breakfast you’re just getting ads and Kyle. I’d be seeking the hits via other means at that time.


Not entirely correct. Fitzy & Wippa have been talked about quite a bit this survey, with the axing of Sarah and Kate joining the team.
It has been quite negative and will be interesting to see what impact it has on the upcoming ratings surveys.

I agree KIIS and KJO will do very well.


Yeah you’re right - they’ll get a slight bump - but nothing to really move that needle up into the 7% to 9% range where they should be.

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I actually think next survey will be the start of the downward trend,

Next survey and the following one taking into account Sarah leaving and Kate joining the show.

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Big changes ahead from this coming survey.

…the way radio ratings are measured since the McNair family set up shop circa 1953.

As of tomorrow, with CRA’s launch of a “world-first hybrid measurement system to better measure listening everywhere on every platform,” radio will be able to stack its stats up against other media in a more meaningful comparison than ever before.


Sydney: Kyle and Jackie O still number 1.

Melbourne: Jase and Lauren will get a significant bump from all the media and attention they’d been receiving. Will probably be at Christian O’Connell’s expense.

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With this year’s breakfast battle in Melbourne upped in tempo, time for a little bit of ratings prediction guess work for 2024. I have ignored the known unknown of ARN acquiring SCA and this leading to the Christian O’Connell Show switching stations to Triple M mid-year (because that’s what I would do…). Whilst the ratings surveys focus on the short term, I have focussed on the annual outcome and the longer term trends, as I think this is the real indicator of success. This week, its the FM stations.

NB: In the trend graphs, the Red bar is the lowest rating, Green is the highest rating, Grey is a station re-launch and a Darkened colour is the COVID year (abnormal ratings).

2024 Prediction FM #1 - 10.8 (Up)
2023 FM #2

With this year’s upcoming 3-way CHR battle, expect Fox to play to their strength and go heavy on their Melbourne heritage. Short of the long, Fox will gain listeners from KIIS (along with Nova100).

2024 Prediction FM #2 - 10.6 (Stable)
2023 FM #1

ARN have succesfully built breakfast over the last decade, especially with Christian O’Connell. At this stage, further growth becomes harder as its a known product and the fear of losing listeners will limit change. There will be a small amount of growth I think from Triple M.

Smooth 91.5
2024 Prediction FM #3 - 8.4 (Up)
2023 FM #3

Smooth often comes across as running in its own lane, whereas I suspect there is a strong listener crossover with 774 (just a theory). I think listeners will continue to move from 774 to Smooth.

2024 Prediction FM #4 - 7.5 (Up)
2023 FM #5

The hiring of Jase & Lauren is a commendable gambit, which I think will pay off. Nova100 have already taken the hit of the breakfast reset in 2023, so I think the way is up and they will drag listeners across from KIIS.

Triple M
2024 Prediction FM #5 - 5.5 (Stable)
2023 FM #6

The Marty Sheargold show comes across to me as an acquired taste. Accordingly, the ratings increased in the last few surveys with Marty on leave. With him back on deck, I expect it to drift backwards slightly.

KIIS 101.1
2024 Prediction FM #6 - 5.4 (Down)
2023 FM #4

Not dissimilar to the Marty Sheargold show, I expect K&JO will be an acquired taste in Melbourne, especially as a national show. There will still be an audience, no doubt in part attracted to their stunts, promo and content, however I expect this to reset to the 2018 levels when ARN last replaced breakfast.

Triple J
2024 Prediction FM #7 - 3.8 (Up)
2023 FM #7

With a national breakfast offering, Triple J has struggled to break through (a potential reminder for ARN?). Year 2 of the current breakfast team and possibly some Nova100/KIIS listeners that preferred a more youthful energy should lead to a slight up tick.


No chance of this happening even if the ARN acquisition goes through - it’ll be years before any significant changes can happen.

A gain in survey 7 offset by a fall in survey 8. There’ll be enough marketing to lift Marty in 2024 - anything lower than a 6 average should be ringing alarm bells.


Drive ratings should be interesting in Melbourne with new hosts on 3AW and the ABC. If listeners don’t like the new programs, which stations will they turn to?

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2021 also a Covid year @Rob_Melb_AU, more face masks for more weeks, huge amounts of lockdowns in Melbourne, awful yo yo effect yet still Victorians rewarded their prison boss.

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