I’m not saying polls mean nothing, just election day is different (not 180-degrees opposite, but some change).
I agree actually meeting with people, hearing their issues, problems, concerns, etc. is good for candidates not only to understand what’s important to voters but to help adjust policies to help real people…and you’re right seats once safe can change to no longer be (sometimes because of demographic changes, but there’s also economic ones such as the local car industry dying), and taking voters for granted is one way incumbents lose.
Preferred PM has an influence, and it can be the deciding one if things are narrow between the two parties, but I didn’t say it was what decided the election.
But things get really different when people see voting for a 3rd party or independent candidate as a real/viable option, plus I’m sick of seeing the 2-party-preferred poll results; they’re such a crude estimation (estimates because of preference distribution) and really doesn’t mean much nowadays.
I live in a safe seat (unfortunately), so I’m not surprised; we get ignored, it basically doesn’t matter which way I vote, and yes I’ve heard how much attention marginals get (plus I see the funding they get).
This is true. Voters use so-called heuristics when voting at the ballot (essentially mental short cuts to make sense of difficult/complex decisions), and leader competency is quite influential.
That being said, the latest poll out yesterday showed higher satisfaction and lower dissatisfaction for Shorten than Turnbull. The poll was also the worst first preference vote polling result for the Coalition since 2009. In other words, Turnbull has sunk below Abbott levels of popularity.
I’d watch out for something after the WA Election result.
Yeah but what will they do?
Abbott was taking the LNP back into opposition (where he’s best), the polls showed the general voting public prefer Turnbull, but since he became leader he’s flipped over to supporting almost all of Abbott’s right-wing policies instead of bringing the LNP to the sensible centre, so surprise surprise the voters have again shown disdain for a party leader who doesn’t stand for anything, who backflips on what he/she not long before said was so important.
The likes of Abbott would prefer to lose the next election (as they almost did the last one) rather than let the LNP move to the centre, and they’ve successfully hamstrung Turnbull.
Given they rolled him once before for daring to put the nation (& planet) ahead of party politics, and party leaders can only ‘lead’ with the consent of their parliamentary party, what could Turnbull be allowed to do that would improve the LNP’s chances?
I doubt that Abbott’s recent sniping, condemned as it was by some from the right-wing of the LNP, has shifted the idiology or power base within the parliamentary Liberal party sufficiently for Turnbull to be able to do anything better, and Turnbull’s recent advocacy for taxpayers subsidising coal, while pleasing some from the right, obviously hasn’t helped the poll numbers.
That’s the conundrum. Returning to Abbott would be repeating the mistakes of Labor in a hilarious symmetry, so I’d be in favour of that.
Take into account that the poll I cited above was sampled before the penalty rates decision and the latest saga in the Brandis affair. The next major poll will be an absolute bloodbath.
Honestly, Dutton’s name did the rounds as a potential leader in some circles, and as hilarious as that might be for my sorry sad political-drama-loving arse, that’s how desperate the Libs will be after this poll. This is Gillard levels of disaster, but without a single redeeming legacy such as the NDIS. Unless Morrison steps up (and Bishop won’t, neither will Pyne), the panic in the Liberal party will mean Dutto, Abbott or a lame-duck Malcolm.
Sit back and enjoy and watch them implode. The right wing commentators will get themselves into a lather. They don’t get it lurching further and further to the right isn’t going to work. Malcolm’s popularity was based around the sensible center. Abbot and his cronies still don’t see that they’re extreme right wing agenda was the reason why he was outsted in the first place.
Bolt on tonight ranting on and on about the poor poll results for the government and that it’s turnbulls fault because he hasn’t lurched further to the right.
It’s not like he could do anything. His last stint was marred by negotiation incompetency with the Senate crossbench; the field is even worse now so I doubt he could pass a single bill.
If you derive pleasure from political drama like me, then it’s hard to top Abbott.
I love drama, don’t get me wrong, but I would like to think our country can run in an organised sensible fashion. If they are going to change the leadership (which lets be honest, if it happens it will happen in 1-2 years time not tomorrow) I would like to think it wouldn’t be someone that has mocked, taunted and complained about his party.
Well I cannot comment on that but I do know for a fact that he has dated a man at one stage in his life. And what I am about to say is pure speculation but I would assume he is married with children hiding in the shadows because he wants to be in politics. Which, if the case, is really sad. But then some people would rather power than love.
Well I guess I don’t know first hand but I know a guy that says he dated Christopher Pyyyyne back in Uni. I wasn’t there but I don’t see a reason to lie about it.
No, definitely not. Preferred PM is vitally important. Don’t confuse that though with some sort of statement about leaders being directly elected or anything.
This is truly a storm in a teacup. In fact, Turnbull has actually made things worse by going after Abbott today so bluntly - he is making news where there is none.
What Abbott said on Bolt, and what Rudd did to Gillard (including leaking highly damaging Cabinet discussions) are just light years apart.
Christian Porter is the next Liberal PM. It’s a shame crappy Scott Morrison had to be put into the Treasurer’s role as part of Turnbull’s deal, but Scott should be dumped for Christian, with him as a ready replacement if polls are dire somewhat closer to the election than three actual full years out.
I can’t believe we’re talking about polls at this stage of a term. Ridiculous!
