Federal Politics

With their policies the coalition will never hit any targets.

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With all the talk about Kooyong last week I think Wills’ proposed redistribution went under the radar. Surely Peter Kahlil is in real trouble now. The electorate was drifting green anyway and is now taking in high-density green heartland of Brunswick, Carlton and Fitzroy, while dropping off some working class Pascoe vale and Glenroy.

Also with Higgins gone, the greens will really be able to consolidate resources on seats like this.

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Dutton and the Libs are either incredibly stupid or they just don’t want to win. Until they start to turn back towards the sensible centre they will remain unelectable - unless Labor do something incredibly stupid. Dutton is one of those types that if you let them get away with bullying stupidity they will just continue down that path and be emboldened again and again. He’s one of those people that think they’re smarter than what they are.

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I don’t know if that’s certain. Tony Abbott was cut from the same cloth and was arguably even more personal and vile against Gillard yet he won in 2013. Surely Australians aren’t that stupid to let history repeat itself but it has happened before.

Add to the fact that Peter Khalil is one of the staunchly pro-Israel MPs in the caucus does not fly well at all in this electorate. In the working class suburbs in the north of the electorate the muslim population won’t like his stance towards the issues in Gaza, and combined with the Greenies down at Brunswick it’s only going to get better for the Greens. Samantha Ratnam being a high profile candidate will not help Labor either. They’ll have to rely on Liberal preferences but given the Libs run dead in Wills and Cooper anyway they won’t help much if there’s a landslide.

Labor would be better off sandbagging Macnamara instead of focussing on Wills. I think the latter is a ‘put a fork in it, it’s done’ situation.

Wills is very likely to go Green. However, I’m still thinking Griffith might go back to Labor, so an even switch.

Dutton has made some of his seats safer with those comments. Maintaining seats isn’t going to get him into government. Rusted on LNP seats are not going anywhere, not the crowd they should be focusing on pleasing every 5 mins. He needs 20 seats. Looking at the map, I can’t see this happening unless they nail in on some climate focused seats.

I still think Labor Majority is likely, as above, as long as they don’t do anything stupid. A cabinet shuffle would be wise very soon to avoid any potential issues with some clumsy ministers which is starting to come out. I’m expecting that by late July. Can’t see an election this year.

I’m thinking Brisbane, given Labor only lost due to minor party preferences going to Greens. Had it gone the other way Labor would’ve easily won.

Bates doesn’t really cut through like Max Chandler-Mather either.

First Labor retirement. Maria Vamvakinou retiring next election. A big loss for the Labor Party no doubt.

The choice of candidate will be good for the electorate. Someone who fits the electorate well given the high proportion of Muslim voters in Calwell. Maybe Labor should get someone pro-Palestine to challenge Peter Khalil for pre-selection and have a better chance there.

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An ALP majority in 2025 is also certain because many people remember the Brown-Bandt sh*tshow under Gillard – hence we got Abbott 2013 and TAS 2014. It doesn’t help that the Greens welcome socialists and comms and the three major parties, rightly In My View, do not.

It’s odd that westernised Muslims such as those in Wills would support Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of a Palestinian state that would – in the foreseeable future – be as corrupt, authoritarian and volitile as the rest of the Arab world - and Islam supremecist to boot.

Given how the QLD Labor Party is going ATM, I think Greens will have a higher chance holding onto their seats.

I think Macnamara is gone too, it was even more marginal than Wills in 2022 and Josh Burns is very weak on Israel. I think labor will throw in the towel on both and work on picking up Deakin, Menzies, and sandbagging McEwen.

Queenslanders generally vote differently in state and federal elections. Could be the same situation come later this year and next year.

Josh Burns might have an advantage compared to Khalil. Caufield has a large Jewish community and apparently they’ve been extremely hostile to Zoe Daniel for her pro-Palestine stance in parliament. It could potentially balance out the otherwise pro-Palestine sentiment in St Kilda, Albert Park etc.

Liberals are more competitive in Macnamara compared to Wills, so Labor could benefit on their preferences particularly if the former picks up votes in Caulfield and the east. The Greens candidate was the candidate for Higgins in 2022, so she won’t have the benefit of being familiar with the community compared to Steph Hodgins-May who contested the last 3 but is now a Senator.

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Large parts of that electorate have a strong and longstanding Jewish connection, even in the eastern part of St Kilda/Balaclava, I can see the Greens being put last on a lot of ballot sheets. I don’t doubt the Greens have the anti-Israel vote pretty much sown up but I do wonder how big that vote actually is. I suspect that the level of support might appear larger than it actually is given that they have certainly been quite vocal in how they’ve gone about things.

The state ALP is gone. thats obvious, and i suspect Antony Greene will be calling it with enough time to have a nice dinner and an early bed time.

i suspect we are looking at a federal election in Dec / Jan. They will wait until Qld goes and hopefully gets some anger towards the alp out at the state polls and save some qld seats

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If that’s the thinking, combined with redistributions, I think the government will wait till the absolute latest (ala May 2025).

I think Labor will lose in Queensland, but not in a landslide. People are still gun shy of the LNP after their last debacle in government in Queensland.

As others have pointed out, Queensland voters often vote differently at State and Federal elections. They want to punish State Labor but that won’t necessarily translate to the Federal election. Despite the loony Sky News, Chalmers is a Queenslander and is quite well regarded in the State. And Dutton is not as well liked as he tells people.

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I think Labor will retain all their seats (5 of them isn’t a huge achievement lol) in Queensland next federal election. Chalmers, Anika Wells and Milton Dick all have very high profiles as either ministers or the speaker and their electorates are very Labor leaning especially in recent years. Not 100% sure about Moreton as apparently they want to force Graham Perrett out to meet the affirmative action quota (though I think they should be selecting strong female candidates in winnable seats to meet it), and Shayne Neumann is in an outer-suburban seat with a marginal percentage, but the demos in both Moreton and Blair (Ipswich no less) are much more Labor friendly than 25 years ago so the chances are good.

As for pick-ups, I think Griffith and Ryan are a write-off. Brisbane and Leichhardt are the best chances, possibly Bonner in the next two cycles. The outer-suburbs will probably be LNP territory for the foreseeable future.

Terri Butler was born/raised in Cairns.

Perhaps send her up there. That electorate needs a bit of a reset, they would need invest up that way also.

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Only issue is that given she’s been associated with Griffith (an inner-city, latte sipping leftie seat as those on the right calls it), moving to Leichhardt (remote rural seat) feels like a parachuting situation, and we all know how well that went down last time in Fowler and Kristina Keneally.

It would be like Albo ditching Grayndler to contest Hunter or Richmond. Quite incompatible in many ways.

I personally don’t think Griffith is a write off for Labor.

I would think that anyone in the Jewish community that has Israel as their top issue was already voting liberal and was always going to vote for Dutton. Any movement will come from the large first-time gen z vote, the labor/green swing voters and whoever moves into the new skyscraper apartments in Southbank. The Melbourne Square development alone will have a similar population to Caufield.